IRAN'S leadership has again equivocated after agreeing to a deal that would ease its nuclear stand-off with the West.
But this time, it may be as much a product of the nation's smouldering political crisis as it is a negotiating tactic.
Tehran has yet to state publicly why it objects to the deal, in which it would ship its low-enriched uranium out of the country
for additional processing and eventual return as fuel rods for a civilian reactor. But experts say the very caustic, and very public, nature of the debate in Iran on the proposed nuclear deal suggests the deep divisions cemented by the summer's disputed presidential election have complicated, if not undermined, the ability to resolve such a major issue.
"Since the 1979 revolution, it is rare for the political elite to disagree so openly with an issue of this significance," said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a political scientist at Syracuse University.
The announced agreement headed off efforts to impose tough new sanctions on Iran, yet patience may be waning. On Monday, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton said Tehran had to accept the deal in full, with no changes. And Foreign Secretary David Miliband emerged from a meeting in Moscow with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to declare: "We both want to see a prompt response."
At the centre of Iran's problems is President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has said Iran should accept the deal, claiming his tough stance in past years had finally forced the West to accept implicitly Iran's right to enrich uranium.
Ahmadinejad, however, alienated both reformist and conservative political leaders after his disputed re-election as he tried to consolidate power and marginalise his rivals. Neither side is eager to see him take credit for resolving the nuclear issue. "Even a potential deal that serves Iran's overall interests can be scuttled due to Iran's highly factionalised political environment," said Alireza Nader, an Iran expert with the Rand Corporation.
Since he was first elected four years ago, Ahmadinejad has been the face of confrontation. Now he is talking about co-operation with the international community while the so-called pragmatic conservatives have sharply attacked the nuclear agreement as a potential trick that would undermine Iran's rights.
Iran's reformers, stung by Ahmadinejad's past criticism of them for suspending enrichment, have also criticised the deal. Led by Mir Hussein Moussavi, a former presidential candidate, they have been looking to take a page from Ahmadinejad's own book, using the nuclear card to try to score political points. "To have an opportunity to go at Ahmadinejad for not being nationalist enough, it looks like an opportunity for someone like Moussavi," said Michael Axworthy, a former diplomat and an Iran expert who lectures at the University of Exeter.
The political attacks are only one complication. The nuclear issue is of such importance, analysts say, that it is unlikely Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will be willing to risk undermining his already damaged credibility with conservatives and the public by accepting a deal that many argue would undermine Iran's interests.
Another factor working against acceptance of the deal involves the widely held sentiment that Iran cannot trust the West, or Russia – which would first receive the uranium from Iran – to abide by the terms of any deal.
Whatever the motivation, France and Germany warned Iran on Monday that there was a limit to their patience. "We are waiting for a reply. If the reply is aimed at delaying matters, as we believe, then we will not accept it," French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner said during a joint news conference in Paris with his German counterpart, Guido Westerwelle.
Many theories about Iran's motivation have been discussed. Some experts speculated that the leadership was employing a "good-cop, bad-cop" strategy, to allow the negotiators on the nuclear issue in Geneva to go back to the table arguing that they needed to sweeten the deal to develop a consensus.
Iran's leaders have indicated they are ready to try to work out a deal, but may not be willing or able to shoulder the risk of completing one.
The pragmatic conservatives, led by parliament's speaker Ali Larijani and his brother, Sadeq, the head of the judiciary, are now doing to Ahmadinejad what he has done to his political opponents for years – undermining him by charging that the deal violates Iran's inalienable rights and that the West is trying to "cheat" Iran.
