WHEN does a surge stop being a surge? Yesterday, according to the United States military, the extra deployment of 30,000 US troops ordered into Iraq by George Bush in January 2007 to deal with rampaging violence, officially ended.
A quick glance at the maths however, reveals that all is not as it seems. There were about 130,000 US soldiers in Iraq when the surge was ordered. This rose to 170,000 as an additional five combat brigades were deployed, making a total of 20 across t
he country.
The last soldiers from the surge brigades departed this weekend – leaving US troop levels at 147,000, some 17,000 more than when the surge started.
Of this number, about half are combat troops, with the rest in support roles. By way of comparison, total UK troop deployment in Iraq is 4,100.
While one of the reasons given for this disparity is that an airborne brigade has departed, with a larger infantry brigade rostered in, that is not the whole picture. The fact remains that numbers are still higher than at the start of 2007.
Adding to the domestic pressure on the Bush administration is the fact that US military tours of duty are 15 months long, extended from 12 in April 2007. Again, by comparison, British tours are six months in duration.
It is now being reported in the American media that the White House is set to order thousands more troops home by the end of this year.
One major factor is that violence in Afghanistan is rising, and the US needs to send soldiers there to fill in the gaps left by its reluctant Nato allies.
Politically, the Iraqi government is also asserting its wish for a speed-up in withdrawals. On Monday, the chief spokesman for prime minister Nouri al-Maliki said the government hopes the US withdraws its troops by 2010.
More cuts seem possible next year, but the scale and timing will depend on who replaces Mr Bush.
Barack Obama says he wants all American troops outs within 16 months of him taking office.
John McCain refuses to set any timeline for withdrawals.
Barring any catastrophic return to the violence of 2007, the final act is now being played out in large-scale US military involvement in Iraq.
Not an if now, but a when.
