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Energy crisis as gas row worsens between Russia and Ukraine

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Published Date: 07 January 2009
SWATHES of Europe have been plunged into an energy crisis after gas supplies to a number of countries were cut in an increasingly acrimonious dispute between Russia and Ukraine over energy prices.
Hungary, Turkey, Macedonia, Croatia and Greece all reported that gas flows via Ukraine had stopped, and even countries as far afield as Germany and Italy have experienced disruption to supplies.

In perhaps the worst-affected country, Bulgaria, the government has spoken about restarting a nuclear power station after the cut-off left 12,000 homes in one of the nation's biggest towns, Varna, without central heating and another major town without gas supplies.

"We are facing a serious natural gas crisis in which Bulgaria is a victim of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Bulgaria's prime minister, Sergei Stanishev, said.

The crisis was prompted after Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, ordered the fuel giant Gazprom to cut supplies through Ukraine to punish the country for alleged theft.

Russia maintains that Kiev is siphoning off gas intended for export to western Europe, and claims its cut of 65.3 million cubic metres – about 20 per cent of the flow – is equivalent to the amount of gas its neighbour has taken.

As an indication of the increasing war of words between Moscow and Kiev over who is to blame, Russia has accused Ukraine of shutting down three pipelines, and labelled its behaviour "irresponsible".

However, these accusations have been fiercely denied by Ukraine, which acts as a transit country for 80 per cent of Russia's gas exports.

Kiev has pointed the finger of blame at Moscow, adding that Russia has cut supplies by about 60 per cent. Viktor Yushchenko, the president, has also warned Russia might order a total cut to supplies to the West.

The dramatic disruption to gas flows provoked a strong reaction from the European Commission. Moving away from the diplomatic niceties that had characterised its earlier statements on the Russian-Ukraine dispute, it called the cuts "completely unacceptable" and demanded an "immediate" restoration to supplies.

The commission added that it might hold an emergency summit between the EU, Russia and Ukraine in an effort to broker an agreement.

The events mark a major escalation in a dispute that began on New Year's Day, when Russia cut supplies to Ukraine over an argument about unpaid bills and how much Kiev should pay for its natural gas. Gazprom has demanded that Ukraine pays £308 for 1,000 cubic metres of gas, a significant increase on the 2008 price of £122 but one Gazprom says is in line with global prices.

Despite the animosity between the two sides, both Ukraine and Russia have pledged to seek a rapid solution to the dispute.

Oleh Dubina the head of Ukraine's gas company, Naftogaz, said he would travel to Moscow tomorrow for talks with Gazprom, while a spokesman for the Russian company, said that "given the crisis we are ready to talk at any moment".

Without a solution, ever greater areas of Europe could suffer from the effects of a gas shortage.

Slovakia, which like many of countries in Central Europe is 100 per cent dependent on Russian gas, said it was prepared to declare a state of emergency.

Centrica has warned British consumers might have to pay more if the situation persists.


BACKGROUND

THIS dispute marks a dramatic escalation in the row that began on New Year's Day, when Russia cut supplies to Ukraine over an argument about unpaid bills and just how much Kiev should pay for its natural gas.

Gazprom has demanded that Ukraine pays £308 for 1,000 cubic metres of gas, a significant increase on the 2008 price of £122, but one Gazprom says is in line with global prices.

Despite the animosity between the two sides, both Ukraine and Russia have pledged to seek a rapid solution to the dispute.

Oleh Dubina, the head of Ukraine's gas company, Naftogaz, said he would travel to Moscow tomorrow for talks, while Sergei Kupriyanov, a spokesman for the Russian company, said that "given the crisis, we are ready to talk at any moment".

The full article contains 693 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 07 January 2009 9:19 AM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Russia
 
1

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 07:45:44
The world's climate starts into a colder phase which could last several decades or more. Solar (in)activity is on a level rapidly approaching that of the Dalton Minimum, the Pacific has switched over into its 'la Nina' (cooling) phase which usually lasts for several decades.

Now Russia starts turning the screw on gas supplies to the West. Surprised ? We shouldn't be. My understanding is that Russian climatologists have been predicting this prolonged colder period for a while. Russia can only benefit from us failing to develop nuclear power and investing ridiculous amounts of money in things like wind energy.

In the short term they will be able to extort really high prices from the highest bidders on the open energy market. In the long term western economies will be placed under enormous strain.

By the time the global warming 'bubble' has burst the activists responsible may well have done immense damage to the economies of the western world. Is this their actual aim ? You tell me.
2

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 07:49:19
The only country in Europe which seems to have seen this coming is France with its programme of developing nuclear energy to the point where it will meet a very larger proportion of its needs for the foreseeable future.

When the lights start going out across much of Europe will the politicians and others responsible for the nightmare be held to account ?
3

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 07:50:29
Accuweather.com’s chief long-range and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi observed that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s recent cut of gas flows to Europe via Ukraine may have been done so in anticipation of a global cooling cycle (on the Jan. 6 “Glenn Beck Show” radio program). Bastardi has a solid reputation among Wall Street traders for understanding weather’s impact on energy commodities.
4

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 07:53:36
From an interview with a former senior KGB [now FSB] agent who defected to the West, Yuri Bezmenov. :
When the Korean War ended, the KGB realized that America and the West could never be defeated militarily, and that Communism could not be imposed by military force. But as Stalin said, “Two steps forward, one step back.”

Being the ultimate realists, the KGB changed tack, and instituted a plan to use the West’s freedom of information against it, beginning in colleges and universities, and ultimately moving on to newspapers and the broadcast media. The results are plain to see.

Today, anyone mentioning the word ‘conspiracy’ is derided. But keep in mind that Vladimir Putin was a top KGB/FSB officer. Russia has massive influence on the world stage.

At every turn, the West is now being hobbled by demands to remove dams and hydro electricity, to stop drilling for oil, to stop using nuclear power, to greatly reduce military spending, to corrupt NASA with useful fools in positions of power, to replace extremely cost-effective petroleum with silly wind power schemes, to tax driving and commerce, to end space exploration, to make the UN the arbiter of world government, to end the free flow of information through the internet, to promote the belief that CO2 is causing catastrophic climate change, to promote the argument that taxpayers in industrialized countries must pay exorbitant penalties for “carbon” use, while giving a free pass to all others, to demonizing oil, coal, natural gas, and hydroelectric power.
5

materialise,

07/01/2009 08:06:23
Power supply is a weapon.

And I fear, even though it is a bitter pill to swallow we need to have nuclear power in order to safeguard and maintain a guaranteed energy supply for our people, homes and businesses.

The Ideological No Nuclear standpoint is understandable but as an ideal it could put Scotland at a real disadvantage for our future, both on a personal level and for business.

We need to be able to live, work and compete on a global stage, we are no different to any other country, we need to take care of ourselves and projections that wind, tidal or other cleaner alternatives, whilst laudable are far from proven over the long term.

6

ddmc,

07/01/2009 09:11:28
As far as we've been told Ukraine hasnt paid it's bills, as the gas pipes run through Ukraine it's they who are siphoning off the gas as they did in 2005. As russia has reduced the amount of gas by 20% which is the amount Ukraine uses, but were to believe that it's russia's fault.
Russia wants to charge them $450 per thousand cubic meters, Ukraine wants to pay half that amount, even though the $450 is still far less that EU customers pay, strange I always thought the seller was the one who sets the price.

Perhaps Ukraine shouldn't have been so keen to support Georgia !

The solution is to build a pipeline to the EU directly. Then the people who pay the bills promptly will get the gas they've paid for & not have it stolen by a 3rd party.
7

Lianachan,

Highlands 07/01/2009 09:19:36
Once again, as happened with the Georgia thing, Russia is behaving exactly correctly but our media spin makes them out to be the bad guys. Is our perception of Russia being groomed so that itcan retake it's " Global Boogey-man" crown back from "terrorists"?
8

ddmc,

07/01/2009 09:50:40
#7 most definatley
9

Vlad Tepes,

EDINBURGH 07/01/2009 09:53:28
#1-4
Maybe you're right- cold weather in winter might mean the start of prolonged cooling, there is a global CONSPIRACY that you have picked up on and America, Europe and China have missed, this is the REAL cold war!!! Aaargh!
HOWEVER La Nina is weakening and 2009 is set to be amongst the 5 warmest on record...doh!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081230.html
10

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 10:07:49
Apart from anything else, this is a recycling of last year's forecast. Time will tell in two ways. The actual satellite data will show what happens.

It will only be the 5th hottest on record if (a) temperatures rise and (b) we use the (deeply flawed) data from the surface stations. These suffer from the majority being totally unsuited to the job by virtue (sic) of not meeting the proper locational factors, contamination by the Urban Heat Island effect and the drop out of a large number of stations, mainly in Russia.
11

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 10:10:06
Also, an extract from the Daily Telegraph which is rather interesting :

The UKMO temperate predictions have been comically inept. This statement entertained various US climate experts, such as Dr Roger Pielke Sr of Colorado University, who recalled how last September the Met Office forecast that this winter in the UK would be “milder than average”, just before we enjoyed the coldest autumn and winter for decades. Dr Pielke also recalled the Met Office’s prediction two years ago that 2007 would be globally “the warmest year on record”, beating the “peak” year of 1998 (see the Watts Up With That website). Even as they made that prediction, temperatures began their steepest plunge since they toppled off that 1998 highpoint, dropping by nearly 0.7C - equivalent to the entire net warming of the 20th century.

PJ comment : actually the warmest of the 20th Century was 1934.

The reason why US scientists take a particular interest in the forecasting skills of the UK Met Office is that, through its Hadley Centre, its temperature data are one of the four official sources on which the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases all those projections of global warming which have the Western world’s politicians under such a spell. The Met Office, which played a key part in setting up the IPCC, has long since abandoned any pretence that it is an impartial scientific body when it comes to promoting its favourite cause of man-made climate change.

As the Met Office’s website boasts, its ‘’world-leading expertise’’ enables it to provide ‘’an understanding of the future through risk analysis and long-range forecasting’’. It stages seminars to equip ‘’professionals in Government and the public sector’’ to ‘’dispel scepticism about climate change in your organisation’’.

It is just a pity that our Met Office’s comically consistent inability to predict weather even a few weeks ahead (let alone a century hence) is beginning to make it an international laughing s
12

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 10:14:52
You may also wish to reflect on the fact that, apparently, the Hadley Centre is unwilling to submit all of their calculations and data for peer review. The last time that happened they were forced to restate 1934 as the hottest year of the 20th Century.

Also that the Goddard Institute inserts and revises data for the surface record. These insertions not only alter the current calculations but usually have the effect of increasing the previous temperatures.

Unfortunately for both of these sources, the satellite data is available and is much more difficult to put a spin on.
13

Prester John,

Pots_n_Pans 07/01/2009 10:16:03
#11 completed:

"It is just a pity that our Met Office’s comically consistent inability to predict weather even a few weeks ahead (let alone a century hence) is beginning to make it an international laughing stock."
14

TimW1234,

Ottawa, Canada 07/01/2009 11:37:34
Prester John

Great information and I learned something today from your researches.

Thanks for taking the time to investigate this and share it with us.
15

Tussler,

19/07/2009 17:03:33
All Ukraine has to do is pay their bill and the gas will flow. It's as simple as that.

 

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