DOZENS of fighters with al-Qaeda, and a handful of the terrorist group's leaders, are moving to Somalia and Yemen from their principal haven in Pakistan's tribal areas, according to evidence cited by US officials.
In communications that are being watched carefully at the Pentagon, the White House and the CIA, the terrorist groups in all three locations are now communicating more frequently, and apparently trying to co-ordinate actions, the officials said.
Some aides to President Barack Obama attribute the moves to pressure from intensified US drone attacks against al-Qaeda in Pakistan, after years of unsuccessful American efforts to dislodge the terrorists from their haven there.
But there are other possible explanations. Chief among them is the growth of the jihadist campaigns in both Somalia and Yemen, which may now have some of the same appeal for militants that Iraq did after the American military invasion there in 2003. Somalia is now a failed state that bears some resemblance to Afghanistan before the attacks on the US on 11 September 2001. Yemen's weak government is ineffectually trying to combat the militants.
The shift of fighters is still small, perhaps a few dozen, and there is no evidence the top leaders – Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri – are considering leaving Pakistan, according to more than half a dozen senior administration, military and counterterrorism officials.
Leon Panetta, the CIA director, said that as al-Qaeda came under increasing pressure in Pakistan, the US must prevent the terrorist group from creating a new sanctuary in Yemen or Somalia.
The steady trickle of fighters from Pakistan could worsen the chaos in Somalia, where an Islamic militant group, the Shabab, has attracted hundreds of foreign jihadists in its quest to topple the weak moderate Islamist government in Mogadishu. It could also swell the ranks of a growing menace in Yemen, where militants now control large areas of the country outside the capital.
A senior Obama administration official attributed some of the movement to "the enormous heat we've been putting on the leadership and the mid-ranks" with Predator drone strikes, launched from both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mr Obama's strategy so far has been to intensify the strikes begun under the Bush administration, though they have been a source of tension within Pakistan, because of civilian casualties.
"There are indications that some al-Qaeda terrorists are starting to see the tribal areas of Pakistan as a tough place to be," said an American counterterrorism official. "It is likely that a small number have left the region as a result. Among these individuals, some have probably ended up in Somalia and Yemen, among other places. The al-Qaeda terrorists who are leaving the tribal areas of Pakistan are predominantly foot soldiers."
Measuring the numbers of these movements is almost as hard as assessing the motivations of those who are on their way out of the tribal areas. American intelligence is weak in Pakistan's tribal areas, and little better in Somalia and Yemen.
But US officials said there was evidence of a shift. One senior military official who follows Africa closely said more than 100 foreign fighters had trained in terrorism camps in Somalia alone in the past few years. Another senior military officer said that al-Qaeda operatives and allies in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia had stepped up communications with one another.
"What really has us worried is that they're communicating with each other much more – al-Qaeda in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen," the officer said. "They're asking, 'What do you need? Financing? Fighters?'"
