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Stagnant housing market traps thousands as loan deals fall by 71%

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Published Date: 02 September 2008
THE number of new mortgages issued to homebuyers has fallen to an all-time low in the latest sign of the economic downturn.
A total of 33,000 loans were approved by UK banks and building societies in July – down 71 per cent on the 114,000 issued in the same period a year earlier.

The news came as the pound fell to a record low against the euro – dropping to 81.21p
– and a two-year low against the US dollar, with £1 buying $1.80.

Yesterday was the first day of trading since Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, warned that Britain faced the worst economic crisis in 60 years.

The mortgage figures, issued yesterday by the Bank of England, were the lowest since records began in 1999. There was also a further drop in the number of people remortgaging their homes, to 69,000 in July.

Experts said Mr Darling's failure last month to rule out a possible stamp duty freeze had created uncertainty among buyers and sellers.

But there was hope that the market was close to bottoming out, as the July figure for new loans was only 2,000 fewer than in June, although it was the 12th consecutive monthly fall, and there was no guarantee of a quick rebound.

Separate figures last month from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed Scotland was faring better than the rest of the UK, with 18,500 mortgages approved between April and June – a 34 per cent drop year on year, but better than the UK-wide decrease of 46 per cent.

Peter Bolton King, chairman of the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), told The Scotsman that the lack of availability of mortgages had eased slightly in recent weeks, but the market was still closed to first-time buyers without a deposit. "Providing you have a clear credit history and a deposit, there are mortgages out there," he said. "But I think an awful lot of the problem is about a lack of confidence."

Geoffrey Dicks, chief UK economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, said that the importance of the housing market could often be overstated, as only a minority of the population moved house each year, while rising energy, food and petrol prices affected everybody.

He said: "Moving house is extremely expensive, particularly if you are paying a lot of stamp duty. If you don't move house, you have money left for holidays or cars or whatever.

"At the level of the whole economy, housing works both ways. It spurs spending in some ways – if you sell 'big ticket' items that people typically purchase when they move house – but if you are not moving, it can also spur spending."

Crawford McCaughie, chairman of the Council of Mortgage Lenders Scotland, said: "We believe Scotland is not immune from what is happening, but it does appear to be performing better.

"Traditionally, Scottish house prices have not been as expensive as England."



Case study 1

'All we can do is hope that the market improves'

MAIRI Cotter, 28, is an advertising executive working in Edinburgh.

"My partner and I bought a two-bedroom ex-local authority house in Stenhousemuir in October 2005. When you buy a house from the local authority, part of the deal is that you have to stay there for three years.

"We have now been in the house just over three years and need to upsize because of our daughter, but unfortunately we are having to wait to sell our house. At the moment, no-one knows what the markets are doing so we have to wait and see when the economic situation recovers. We don't want to leave the area because our daughter has just started at nursery and the school catchment area is really good here.

"Since we moved in, property prices in our area have risen dramatically.

However, despite this in the last six months the property price has fallen 16 per cent.

"All we can do now is hope the markets improve."

Case study 2

'We can't stump up deposits of up to 25% '

RICHARD Meade, 30, of Edinburgh, works as a senior account manager at a PR firm.

"I currently share a flat with my brother. We have been living in a two-bedroom basement flat in London Street in the New Town of Edinburgh for the past two and a half years.

"With all bills and council tax included, it costs us £950 a month to rent. Although we have a nice flat and a good deal, there's no doubt we want to get on the property ladder.

"We want to pool our resources and buy a place together, because house prices are so out of reach. It's difficult for us to get a mortgage because we are struggling to get together enough money for a decent deposit, especially now that banks are being more cautious.

"We are finding lenders are tightening up their criteria in terms of good deals. For mortgages, we are finding the deposit offers usually range from between 10 per cent and 25 per cent. We can't stump up that amount of money."

Case study 3

'Self-builds could reduce stamp duty'

ALISTAIR Formby, 54, is in the hotel and catering industry.

"We sold our house on the fringes of Castleford in West Yorkshire two years ago. It was a five-bedroom, detached house, in a third of an acre.

"I want to move my family to Perthshire and start another business, but I am currently waiting to see what happens with stamp duty as it has quite an impact on the higher end of the market.

"We have been living with my wife's parents for two years, but I'm willing to stay as long it takes until the market stabilises.

"In Scotland, property prices have held up relatively well compared to England.

"The upper end of the market has held up well – if you can afford a £500,000 house the credit crunch is not going to affect you as much as someone on the minimum wage.

"We have been looking at similar-sized houses to our last, but we are also thinking of self builds, as this could reduce the stamp duty."








The full article contains 1049 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 02 September 2008 1:54 AM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Credit Crunch
 
1

8/10 Cats,

02/09/2008 00:01:11
The SNP are in a shambles over the economy.

The SNP and Labour, just the same except Alex Salmond has his photos taken with sausages and wants to change Unions ot the European one.
2

,

02/09/2008 00:18:05
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3

8/10 Cats,

02/09/2008 00:30:04
ptdoug

Salmond and the SNP have official positions on reserved matter these days. Do keep up.

The SNP are a joke with no solution.
4

,

02/09/2008 00:35:25
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5

,

02/09/2008 00:41:32
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6

,

02/09/2008 00:42:14
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7

,

02/09/2008 00:43:16
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8

Scott_B,

02/09/2008 07:35:15
In each of the "case studies" above, the people are wanting to move to a bigger house. If you are in a house once valued at 200,000, and it drops 30%, that is a fall of 60,000.

If your goal is a house now valued at 300,000 and it also falls 30%, the drop is 90,000. i.e. the so-called credit crunch has just saved you 30,000 by bringing your next house a step closer.

The opposite happens in buoyant markets when house price inflation is too high - the price of your next step on the so-called property ladder rises faster than our current house.
9

Louis Catorze,

02/09/2008 07:57:08
OI...! ptdoug... you paid for that picture that you are using in the title of your website? Or have you just abused the Scotsman's copyright?
10

Spoot,

Third rock pool on the left 02/09/2008 08:49:18
I suppose we get the meeja that we deserve. For years, soaring house prices were the worst possible thing that could have happened to the country. Now falling house prices are the worst possible thing that could ...

Incidentally, dontcha just feel sorry for all those estate agents who are having to live off the fat accumulated over the past couple of decades?
11

Fairfax,

02/09/2008 09:18:30
Rulesbutnotrulers (9): "1. pass the stamp duty to the seller."

Since most sellers are also buyers, the net effect of this change is almost nil. Even for first-time buyers, the change would be small. A temporary holiday from stamp duty had no significant effect when tried by the Major government in the early 1990s: it's only 1% for properties below £250K, and invariably added to the mortgage. In any case, in a declining property market, the absolute amount spent on stamp duty is also declining.

"2. state to buy equity in all homes in danger of repossession. State to be paid back when that home is sold. Public money and home owner thus both safe."

Such a change would imply that the state (i.e. the taxpayers) had entered the mortgage business, but this time underwriting all mortgages, exposing the taxpayer to potentially enormous losses. There is no guarantee that the home would be sold for an amount that would cover the state's share. Further, many family homes remain in one family for decades.

Instead of looking for a state solution, why not simply do nothing? House prices will decrease, making it much easier for all buyers. A small percentage of owners will face repossession, but that's the risk of buying property rather than renting.
12

Buckfastleigh,

02/09/2008 09:25:53
Just imagine that Genius of an ex-Chancellor Mr Groandon Broon admitting that his economic prudence included a de facto devaluation of 20% against the € since last September and the consequences are all too clear for all to see.

We are in a single European market where truly we are in a great position to sell the "elixir of life" distilled from the finest sources of Caledonia to our continental neighbours at a discount; but look at the prices we are having to pay for our essential imports!

Mr Brown is well known for having applied those famous five Treasury tests to prevent us joining in the safety of the Euro. Not only goods but holidays housing and even pensioners living elsewhere in Europe feel the value of their Pound buying less and less.

A rosy exception why it's our long complaining farmers...but they are of course paid in Euros. Chancellor Darling we simpathise with your task the noo.

Offering developers the consolation of selling masses of bankrupt surplus stock to the state and local authorities that are not at all suitable for social housing in the form of twee one person flats will certainly help them; but it's us who will be paying!
13

Evan Owen,

Snowdonia 02/09/2008 10:29:27
Scary statistics, there are also some lies.

If you take 100% of the market two years ago you would find most of it was adverse credit and buy to let, there goes 70% of the mortgage market in a flash, do you see?
14

Proud to have Scots blood,

New York 02/09/2008 13:19:03
It seems like mostly everybody dreams of "owning" a house. The bank owns it. You don't own it until the mortgage is paid. I know of only two people who OWN the house, having paid off the mortgage. When I saw the out of pocket expenses for the various repairs & the worst times the roof leaked, the boiler went, septic tank, plumbing, termites visiting, TAXES, & in some locations the necessity for two cars, I arrived at the conclusion that it's not a dream it is a nightmare. All expenses always went up.
15

Armstrong Cowan Again,

Negative Equity for 24 years in Germany 02/09/2008 15:03:02
What happened to single ends and 10 kids ( sorry can't
spell wains / waynes) . People these days expect high living standards to be a natural right!
And what has the SNP got to do with a grossly overheated housing market which has been threatening to implode for years.
Anyone in and out of the market at the right times don't complain very loudly!
16

Armstrong Cowan Again,

Germany 02/09/2008 15:07:19
# 15 Absolutely right . In most parts of Germany a house is regarded as a liability and not an asset. If rents are lower than the cost of capital buying makes no sense. It must be said that prices here were grossly over inflated 25 years ago but are now generally cheaper than the UK comparing like with like.
17

Armstrong Cowan Again,

02/09/2008 15:12:41
# 13
please don't talk rubbish - currencies go up and down and the pound hit a low of DM 2.11 in 1995 before soaring for the next 13 years. At least my German friends have stopped telling me that when they went to see the beatles they got 11 -12 DM to the pound. the difference being - 25 quid a week in 1964 could support a family. so please it doesn't matter if you pay your rent with toffees the Euro is no panacea - on the contrary.
18

Vandala,

02/09/2008 15:20:24
15. Absolutely true...but Britain has little or no tradition of long-term tenancies: the middle-classes think that social housing is for "scum". Landlords screw people constantly and like to foster the notion that tenants are "guests in their home": even knocking a nail into a wall can lead to an eviction.

But, yes, I agree with you: I will never buy a house.
19

New Town Resident,

02/09/2008 15:58:09
#15 and #19. Surely not true? Google "RBS UK mortgage free" and you get the following information. (2005 stats)

29% of UK home owners are "mortgage free"

The average Scot paid off his/her mortgage by the age of 45.

#18. Totally agree with you.

20

voltaire's janny,

02/09/2008 17:27:30
For those who believe that this housing bubble burst we witness is just a correction before prices march on as normal.....

The median Scottish household income is 37K. When the average house price is more than 3x37 = 111K then the market is in speculative inflated mode.

The average house price was well in excess of 150K at the zenith before the downturn. Only cheap credit could sustain the affordability of houses for those whose ambition or need exceeded their means. The get out of jail was everlasting growth in prices that over time built equity as real value of payments went down at rate of inflation. Pinch credit and the whole gravy train comes to a shuddering halt.

The train is now standing at sub-prime station. Next stop negative equity.
21

Buckfastleigh,

02/09/2008 21:06:13
#18 I have no need to do so as it's plain to all that our economy is motored by buy to let and pure nationalist elan (much of it of the St George's Flag variety). Rhetoric will gets you nowhere; but money will.

Pray that we don't see inflation eroding away what is left of the Old Lady of Sterling in a world of currencies run by the Fed and by the ECB. When you travel in a small boat alongside two tankers don't be surprised if you get splashed or worse!

In any case is it not the case that we now have ample opportunities to convert our Glorious Bank-Notes to buy up the flotsam of cyclical real estate deals gone wrong to make a pile later; when...things pick up again?
22

voltaire's janny,

03/09/2008 08:53:16
#16 weans - Scottish contraction of wee yins or wee ones. In English English, small ones.

 

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