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Record drop in property values

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Published Date: 04 September 2008
UK HOMES lost nearly 13% of their value during the past year as prices continued to slide at a record rate, figures showed today.
The cost of a home dropped by a further 1.8% during August to leave the average property price at £174,178 – a record 12.7% less than in the same month last year, according to Britain's biggest mortgage lender Halifax.

Annual house price inflation, which measures prices during the previous three months compared with the same period a year ago, also dropped to a new record low, with falls of 10.9%.

It is the first time this measure has recorded a double-digit drop since records began in 1983.

Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis warned that despite the Government's announcement on stamp duty earlier this week, market conditions were set to remain "challenging".

He said: "The pressure on householders' income, together with the reduction in the availability of mortgage finance due to the global financial markets crisis, is resulting in both lower property prices and activity levels."

The group's figures are in line with those reported by Nationwide Building Society last week, which showed that house prices fell by 1.9% during August, contributing to annual falls of 10.5%.

The property market has been hit by the double impact of stretched affordability and the mortgage drought.

Many buyers are sitting on their hands until the outlook for the market is clearer, while those who do want to go ahead with a move are struggling to raise the mortgage they need.

Earlier this week the Government announced a package of measures to help struggling homeowners and those trying to get on to the property ladder, including increasing the level at which stamp duty kicks in from £125,000 to £175,000 for one year.

But the measures received a subdued welcome, with most commentators saying they would do little to boost activity in the housing market or halt the current price slide.

Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "The housing market correction continues full steam ahead.

"House prices nose-dived again in August, taking the annual fall in prices even further into uncharted territory.

"With the recent slump in mortgage approvals yet to be fully reflected in house price data, the correction is set to intensify."

She added that during the past six months house prices have fallen by an average of £2,900 a month according to the Halifax measure, greater than the potential maximum saving of £1,750 as a result of the stamp duty changes.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: "It seems odds-on that house prices will continue to head rapidly south given that the Bank of England reported record low mortgage approvals for house purchases in July.

"It is unlikely that the recently-announced Government measures to support the housing market will have a significant impact in stabilising activity or prices."

Instead, boosting mortgage liquidity is seen as being key to improving activity in the housing market.

Former head of Halifax Bank of Scotland Sir James Crosby is expected to publish his final report and proposals for the mortgage market by the end of this month.

But the Government is not due to outline what steps, if any, it will take in this area until the Pre-Budget Report in the autumn.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee also failed to give homeowners a boost this month, with the announcement that it was keeping interest rates on hold at 5%.

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1

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

04/09/2008 13:53:01
Th Halifax index is on target to hit around 20% down by xmas. With inflation likely to be 5% or above that'll a quarter of the value off housing.

Looks like a great xmas for first-time buyers and all indications are that 2009 will be even better.
2

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 04/09/2008 14:04:30
And what about the situation in Scotland???
3

Active Sassenach,

Luton, England 04/09/2008 14:15:40
Braking news, in this hour, on this site. It makes you stop short and think.

Insight is part of Halifax and Sir James Crosby was a director of a company fined for investment churning in 2003 pursuant to Halifax's 60% shareholding therein. Report on the banking system by a poacher turned poacher? Ooh err!

The maximum saving on stamp duty is £500, not £1,750. The SDLT threshold was already £125,000 before it was increased to £175,000. So the fall in prices is likely to weigh heaviest in a buying decision, even if you can get a mortgage. So find me the 1.2 million transactions to make this a cost of £600 million to the Government?

Mortgage market proposals must NOT include increasing liquidity so we can renew this shambles when we have licked our wounds. The proposals MUST include reducing the dependence of consumer spending on illusory property "wealth". Take Germany's example of how we make long-term housing available for "nesting above investing" thus avoiding short-term speculation and indeed peculation - yes peculation - look it up.

Gordon Brown set out five weasel-worded tests for why we should not join the Euro because the unique relationship between our economy and our housing market prevented us from accepting ECB interest rates. It was accepted because we were booming but who's laughing now? Is the Euro yet strong enough against the Pound for the Chancellor to regret his decision not to join?

New liquidity must be prioritised for business investment which has been handicapped by the debt we have tied up in house prices.
4

Alan B,

04/09/2008 14:33:13
Browns complete failure to control house price inflation, is a price we will all have to pay.
5

SuperSaint,

04/09/2008 14:41:27
Bit tired of this now ... this is not a drop in the average value of a house over the last year ... it's a drop in value of the average house sold in the last year.

The two are very different, think about it!
6

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

04/09/2008 15:11:54
#7: All too true. On the other hand, it's the houses which sell which decide the price of the rest, not the houses that don't sell.
7

sonofhamish,

edinburgh 04/09/2008 15:16:24
Why anyone would think housing would not be cyclical like any other investment is amazing. There will be a correction, it will vary by region, and then probably in 2-3 years the march upwards will continue since:

1. Demographics point to increasing population.
2. We aren't building enough new homes
3. We have finite space on a small island.

Simple really.
8

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

04/09/2008 15:39:49
#9: all also true of Japan. Their credit bust started in 1989. House prices now down 50% to 90% (depending where) and counting...

I hear they have a guy who thought prices would be back to normal by 1993...
9

The baldman,

Eastborne. 04/09/2008 15:44:28
House prices have bubbled in the last few years due to the availability of cheap and easy credit. In fact it has been likened to a Ponzi scheme. Take away the credit and prices will fall because of affordability issues. I think it will be longer than 2 to 3 years to re-inflate this bubble as what we are seeing is a return to normality. Acive I 100% agree with what you say. We can not get richer as a nation by selling overpriced houses to each other.
10

8/10 Cats,

04/09/2008 15:56:09
That's the problem with pyramid schemes, no-one wants to join at the bottom when the start seeing losers.

Nevermind, Gordon Brown will take that freedom of choice away from you by taxing you until you cry even more and handing your hard earned to idiots with union membership cards to prop the pyramid scheme up.
11

Between the lines,

Scotland 04/09/2008 16:14:21
#4 - let me guess, you have invested heavily in property in Edinburgh and now cannot come to terms with the reality check that highlights your typical Edinburgh-instilled greed, delusion and arrogance? Oh, and by the way, for one with such an interest in UK property, why reside in Brazil???
12

Joey Pica,

No Fixed Abode 04/09/2008 19:30:28
The Halifax figures are based on those people who bought through a mortgage, everyone knows that the "bottom has fallen out of the market" so if you are desperate to sell - there will be someone making you an offer well below last years price.
13

muppetfinder,

04/09/2008 23:28:16
#5 maximum saving is £1750 last week it cost £1750 on a house of £175000 now it is 0
14

3inarow,

expensive dug kennel 05/09/2008 00:09:33
no really geein a fook, a got in early and ma wee hoos has doubled in value. Is there gonna be a 100% reduction in value?.....Na thought no. sit tight folks.
15

ccc,

05/09/2008 10:19:58
#16.

Have a think about it. The sheer lack of basic mathematical understanding from the general population is staggering.

If something goes up by 100% it only has to come down by 50% to be right back where it started....
16

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

05/09/2008 18:40:10
A fifty percent reduction is pretty much written in at this point. The banks are functionally insolvent (as in without taxpayer support, they'd all be doing a Northern Rock tomorrow) and lending will just get harder and harder to do as the credit bust grinds on.

When they're trading only for cash and nobody believes prices will ever rise again, that will be the bottom. By then, a mere 50% fall will be in the rearview mirror.
17

tam-the-bam,

Canada 22/02/2009 18:47:22
you guys are funny

at this moment in time house prices in the UK are falling
unemployment is soaring
house reposessions are sky rocketing
banks aren't lending like they use to
and your in a very serious recession
as well as businesses going to the wall at a record rate
these are the simple facts and it's getting worse each day
there is no end in sight despite world governments attempts to slow this monster down

this is not just a typical recession and I cant blame anyone for trying to put a possitive spin on things but the economic horror story unfolding in the UK is very evident and unfortunately it's a downhill ride for the forseeable future and the only thing people can do is make the most of a very bad situation

 

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