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Bank of England holds interest rates

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Published Date: 04 September 2008
THERE was no sign of relief for hard-pressed homeowners and borrowers today after the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold for the fifth month in a row.
The Bank's battle against soaring inflation saw it vote to leave rates at 5%, despite worsening prospects for the UK economy.

Growth stalled between April and June and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said this wee
k the UK would be the only major economy to fall into recession this year.

But the widely-expected decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comes with inflation more than double its 2% target at 4.4% – and set to hit 5% in the coming months after the latest round of price hikes by the UK's "big six" energy firms.

The furore over Chancellor Alistair Darling's gloomy comments on the UK's prospects has helped send the pound plunging against the dollar and the euro, adding to inflation pressure.

Most experts predict rates will not fall until November at the earliest when the MPC is satisfied that inflation has peaked.

The CBI business organisation's chief economic adviser Ian McCafferty said: "As the autumn unfolds, the chances of a rate cut will increase, as the slowdown improves the inflation outlook for next year."

But the growing risks to the economy have sparked increasingly public divisions among the nine-strong committee.

Professor David Blanchflower has called for immediate rate cuts to avoid a recession and labelled his MPC colleagues "misguided" for their focus on inflation.

He was hitting back at a newspaper article by fellow committee member Tim Besley – who has voted to hike rates at the past two meetings.

Mr Besley has warned that letting inflation get out of control would be "damaging and dangerous to the economy" and herald a return to the 1970s.

Steve Radley, chief economist at the EEF manufacturers' organisation, said rate-setters faced a difficult dilemma.

"So long as inflation remains stubbornly high, the Bank will continue to face a tough choice. But mounting evidence of a stagnating economy means the case for further cuts is growing," he said.

The latest round of industry surveys published this week showed the UK's manufacturing, construction and services sectors all continuing to shrink during August, despite a marginal improvement on July's lows.



The full article contains 388 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
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Active Sassenach,

Luton, England 04/09/2008 23:29:36
Braking news on this site in this hour. It makes you stop short and think.

Steve Radley of the Engineering Employers Federation is the only person quoted above with whom I feel a good sense of solidarity. He speaks for those who make things to sell and can sell them abroad. So he can comfort himself with a better export market in the short term, as the pound has crashed, even though he may not be able to invest as much because interest rates have not been cut. This may mean he has to increase productivity to compensate, which can only mean "labour market flexibility" - ie re-pricing labour into jobs (wage cuts) or loss of skills (training cuts). It would be a proper use of public money to cushion this via corporation tax reliefs or manufacturing and innovation enterprise grants.

The Bank of England has shown the backbone to hold rates as it likes to move in 25 basis point steps and has decided not to raise base by 25 basis points. Any weakening is likely to feed into the housing market in the short term and prevent the necessary correction. There is no mandate on steps. So they could have increased by 10 basis points and they should have done so.

No base rate cuts should be contemplated until offerors in the property market have learnt, or been taught by buyers, the real price of their assets. So renewed liquidity or lower interest rates are available for business investment and NOT to sustain the dependency of retail sales on illusory housing "wealth".

 

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