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Bank holds interest rates amid fears of recession

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Financial analyst David Buik argues that interest rates should be 'pinned'

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Published Date: 05 September 2008
THE Bank of England kept interest rates on hold for the fifth month in a row yesterday despite the looming threat of recession.
Stagnating economic growth, record house price falls and the struggling manufacturing, construction and services sectors were not enough to cause the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates from their current level of 5 per cent.

But with inflation currently running at 4.4 per cent, more than double the MPC's 2 per cent target, and expected to hit 5 per cent in the coming months, rates are not likely to be cut until November at the earliest.

The furore surrounding Chancellor Alistair Darling's gloomy comments on the UK's prospects has also helped to send the pound plunging against the dollar and the euro, further adding to inflationary pressures.

Howard Archer, Global Insight's chief UK and European economist, said: "Despite the very real danger of recession, it was always likely to prove premature for the Bank to cut interest rates, given well-above-target and rising inflation, still significant medium-term inflation risks and the weakness of the pound."

However, fears that the UK is heading for recession are continuing to grow after official figures showed that economic growth stalled between April and June.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also predicted earlier this week that the UK would be the only major economy in the G7 nations to fall into recession this year.

The full article contains 248 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 04 September 2008 9:34 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Interest rates
 
1

SouthernSkye,

05/09/2008 07:07:12
Food bills up 9%. Fuel (household) up 33%(?). House prices down 13%. Cost of Living up 10%.
Inflation =4.4% !
2

Tonto43,

Midlothian 05/09/2008 09:50:22
I hope these office bearers are held to account with the exception of Mr Blanchflower, who seems to be the only one that realises that there are going to be massive job losses as a result of holding interest rates so high.
It will not matter what the inflation rate is. If people don't have jobs they won't have any money anyway.
The enevitable result will be a rise in crime as people become more desperate to make ends meet and feed their famalies.
No doubt this panel will get big fat pay cheques year on in. Nothing for them to worry about.............

Have a good look at yourselves
3

Tonto43,

Midlothian 05/09/2008 09:52:01
Oh and I agree with No 1

4.4% no way
4

Active Sassenach,

Luton, England 05/09/2008 16:40:01
What we do not now need is any more liquidity or interest rate cuts directed at car sales, the housing market or consumer spending based on illusory housing "wealth". Offerors must learn the value of their assets. If they will not, buyers must teach them.

The Euro is stronger than the pound while it has an ECB rate of 4.25% and we have a central bank rate of 5%. We need business investment not more froth. The strength of their offer is that they formed the Euro while we stayed out because it didn't suit our housing market. They have business investment and we do not. Who's laughing now?

Their housing market is not without its problems and those it has are largely caused by the British I am ashamed to say. But it is not nose down in the muck like ours. Their economies are affected by global factors and have been down, but they are on the up. It is Britain that the OECD highlights as bust.

If I were a smart lad looking for a job as Prime Minister, I would use the 2009 EU Parliament Elections to abandon my 5 weasel-worded tests and join the Euro.

 

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