Battle lines drawn over Kosovo

AFGHANISTAN was among the first to recognise Kosovo's independence, leaping at the chance to acknowledge a majority Muslim nation in Europe.

Taiwan did too, hoping Kosovo would reciprocate and poke a thumb in the eye of its archrival, Serb-supporting China. But Spain, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia, with a worried eye on their own breakaway movements, said they would never affirm Kosovo's sovereignty.

The response to Kosovo's declaration of independence has as much to do with history and local politics as it does with feelings for Kosovo and its people. Yet the impassioned entry of an angry Russia into the debate has threatened to add an unwelcome geopolitical element to a row that has once again raised the spectre of conflict in the Balkans.

"The Kosovo precedent is a terrifying precedent," said Russian president Vladimir Putin, who lambasted the western nations that have recognised Kosovo.

"It is breaking open the entire system of international relations that have prevailed not just for decades but for centuries. And it without a doubt will bring on itself an entire chain of unforeseen consequences. (Those who have recognised Kosovo] are miscalculating what they are doing. In the end, this is a stick with two ends and that other end will come back to knock them on the head."

That explosion followed inflammatory statements made by Russia's envoy to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, who warned the alliance against overstepping its mandate in Kosovo and made it clear Russia will stop recognition at the UN.

"If the European Union works out a single position or Nato goes beyond its current mandate in Kosovo, these organisations will conflict with the United Nations," said Rogozin.

"If that happens, Russia will proceed from the assumption that to be respected, we have to use brute military force. (Nations that recognise Kosovo had made] a strategic mistake, similar to the invasion of Iraq."

Rising violence in the Serbian capital Belgrade and in the Serbian northern Kosovo town of Mitrovica, allied to Russia's fierce opposition, is making many states adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. While two dozen countries have recognised Kosovo, Jordan, the first Arab country to support Nato's military operations against Serbia in 1999, is not so eager to be at the front this time. Officials in the kingdom say they will wait for the United Nations to pass judgment before taking sides. No Arab country has formally recognised the would-be state.

"Our Arab region in particular is full of groups of many religions, faiths, identities and nationalities," read an editorial last week in state-owned Egyptian paper Al-Akhbar. "What if Iraq should split into four or five countries, and Lebanon into six regions?"

Similar fears have held back many nations in Africa, where only Senegal has so far recognised Kosovo's independence.

Tom Wheeler, a research fellow at the Johannesburg-based South African Institute of International Affairs, said there was also a concern among African countries not to look as if they were following the West in a knee-jerk reaction. "There is this fixed idea in Africa that colonial boundaries should not be changed," he said.

Even the most die-hard Serb nationalist knows the game is up – Kosovo is lost. In a survey last week, only 10% of Serbs had any appetite for armed conflict to retain the region.

The most they could hope for is that the majority-Serb north of the province can be retained, and even that seems a forlorn hope. Hashim Thaci, the prime minister of the new state, knows as much. He said: "Everything is clear. We have massive recognition. Kosovo is an independent state – sovereign and democratic."

It has left a bitter aftertaste in Serbia. Regional expert David Stewart-Howitt, a peacekeeper in Bosnia and now chairman of Castle European, an Edinburgh fund manager which invests heavily in the Balkans, says that while the carrot of EU membership is a powerful draw, the treatment of the Serbs has unnecessarily exacerbated resentment in the country.

"Most Serbs recognise that ultimately this is a disaster of their own making," he says, "but they are still incredibly angry about the fact that international law has been compromised to the needs of naked Realpolitik.

"There's a real resentment of American unilateralism. They feel as if Europe has been railroaded. After all, no other countries in the region are rushing to recognise Kosovo. The interesting dynamic is the presence of Russia, which has always seen Serbia and Montenegro as its pathway to the Mediterranean.

"In the short term, the anger felt by Serbs will mean they turn to the east rather than the west, and we have to be careful about backing them into a corner.

"Ironically, the Serbs are very European and very westernised, so it will only be a temporary flirtation with Russia. And thankfully the underlying circumstances no longer exist for a full-scale resumption of the hostilities we saw in the late 1990s."

Serbia has a well-educated population with an unemployment rate of 21% and one of the lowest earnings per capita in Europe. Its war-weary people now place economic growth and stability above all else.

Yet their resentment at their treatment is mirrored by many other European nations who have significant minority populations which may wish to secede in the future.

The world takes sides

FOR INDEPENDENCE

BRITAIN: Gordon Brown was among the first to recognise Kosovo, claiming independence would "close the chapter" following the troubled break-up of Yugoslavia. Recognition is the logical extension of the decision to support the bombing of Belgrade to halt ethnic cleansing in Kosovo.

UNITED STATES: The US has "long believed supervised independence" was the best way to promote regional stability.

AFGHANISTAN: Wanted to support a majority Muslim nation in Europe, Afghanistan was one of the first nations to recognise Kosovo's independence.

TAIWAN: The diplomatically isolated island state was also quick to recognise Kosovo in the hope of a reciprocal gesture.

AGAINST INDEPENDENCE

VENEZUELA: President Hugo Chavez, below, warned: "It is an extremely dangerous precedent and it can also be the beginning of I don't know how many wars."

ARGENTINA: Argentina, which seeks to end British rule in the Falkland Islands, has also not supported Kosovo's independence.

RUSSIA: Russia' envoy to Nato has warned they may even use force to help their Serb allies retain the territory.

SPAIN: Refused to recognise Kosovo over fears the move would motivate a similar breakaway movement from Basque and Catalan minorities. Basque separatist group ETA has been seeking to carve out its own freedom from Spain for nearly 50 years.