ALEX SALMOND has threatened to resign and "go to the country" if his Budget is rejected by the Scottish Parliament today.
The First Minister's extraordinary ultimatum represents the final stage in a high-stakes game of brinkmanship over the SNP's first Budget, which will be put to a vote at 5pm.
The Scottish Government will not be able to operate properly or have
any of its key policies adopted without getting a Budget passed.
But, with only a minority of the MSPs in the parliament, the SNP cannot be sure of getting its finance package through.
John Swinney, the finance secretary, has made significant concessions in an attempt to secure the support of the Conservatives, the Greens and Margo MacDonald, the independent MSP.
But the vote is still on a knife-edge and although Mr Swinney will make a series of last-minute concessions today to try to get the support he needs, none of the opposition parties was willing to commit their support to the Budget yesterday.
A spokesman for the First Minister announced Mr Salmond's ultimatum after a meeting of the Cabinet last night.
He said: "If the parliament decides it doesn't want it (the Budget], it would be entirely appropriate for the issues to be taken to the people.
"The view of ministers would be that this would be the right thing to do."
If the Budget is rejected, Mr Salmond has the option of putting a motion for the dissolution of the parliament to the chamber.
That requires a two-thirds majority, which he would probably not achieve.
The alternative scenario would be for all ministers, including Mr Salmond, to resign.
If there is no agreement on a replacement First Minister after 28 days, an election is called automatically.
The spokesman did not rule out the possibility of the First Minister and his Cabinet resigning at 5:05pm if the Budget is rejected by parliament.
But he stressed ministers remained "confident" that it would be approved.
The spokesman also hinted that Mr Swinney would be unveiling extra concessions this afternoon.
He added: "If he has anything to announce, he will announce it in his speech to parliament."
The speech is expected to include a review of the resources used to tackle drug addiction and more emphasis on rehabilitation. An accelerated programme of reduced business rates and a shift in the public-transport budget are also likely, as is more money for health in Edinburgh.
Mr Swinney has already given considerable ground on police numbers, promising to find an extra £10 million from the prisons, roads and health budgets to recruit an extra 300 officers next year.
This was intended to be enough to buy the support of the Tories, but the Conservatives want more for the fight against drugs and on business rates.
Mr Swinney has also already conceded ground to the Greens, promising more than £4 million extra for community anti- climate change projects.
However, the Greens also believe Mr Swinney needs to go further to secure their abstentions. They want at least £3 million extra to help drive down bus fares, to encourage the greater use of public transport.
Ms MacDonald, who has persuaded Mr Swinney to give more money to Edinburgh to help it cope with being Scotland's capital city, now wants extra resources for health.
None of these changes would cost much in the scale of the £30 billion Budget, and all could be achieved without any formal amendments.
However, all would require the transfer of resources, and this would mean trimming other areas to make up the shortfall.
The Budget brinkmanship provoked harsh words yesterday between the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.
Lib Dem MSP Mike Rumbles said: "I want the Greens to confirm whether or not they will vote against the Budget if it contains key policies that they have campaigned against, such as the M74 extension.
"Anything other than a vote against the Budget by the Greens will be a massive betrayal against those few people who voted Green at the last election."
Green MSP Patrick Harvie retorted: "I don't take seriously any challenge from Mike Rumbles, a member of the party which promoted the abysmal M74 northern extension."
Mr Harvie said he and fellow Green Robin Harper would seek to exert "as much influence as possible" on the Budget for the Scottish people and for the environment. "Even at this late hour, we need to see further changes, especially on public transport, because as things stand this is still not a Budget that deserves to pass," he said.
AT A GLANCE: CONCESSIONS AND DEMANDSWhat other parties have secured so far:
The Tories have got an extra £10 million for 300 extra police officers this year and another 200 officers in the next two years. They have also been promised a full review of drugs spending and a move towards rehabilitation, rather than methadone.
The Greens have got an extra £4.3 million for anti-climate-change projects.
Margo MacDonald, the independent MSP, has secured extra funding for Edinburgh.
What the parties are still waiting for:
The Tories want business rates to be cut more quickly than previously promised.
The Greens want another £3 million for public transport to cut bus fares.
Ms MacDonald wants more money for health in Edinburgh.
Labour wanted money for skills academies and the Liberal Democrats wanted more money for university, but these plans were rejected by the Scottish Government.
Salmond betting on Labour's weakness with threat to go to the polls ALEX Salmond has a gambler's instinct. His decision to threaten an election unless he gets his Budget through is a risk, but it is based on both probability and judgment.
The First Minister knows the SNP has never been in such a strong position and Labour has never been so poor.
If there is an election, the chances are that the SNP will win convincingly. This gives him a clear advantage over his opponents. He can threaten an election because he knows Labour doesn't want one.
The chances are that the Budget will go through tomorrow. The one slight downside for Mr Salmond is that he could look spiteful and churlish for pushing the parliament with such an extreme threat. But that is more than compensated for by the pressure he is now exerting on Labour and the Lib Dems.
"Vote this down if you dare," he is saying, safe in the knowledge that, with a leader in trouble, no activists, little direction and no money, Labour cannot afford another election.
This is also a classic political example of good cop, bad cop. John Swinney has been going around offering major concessions to woo the Tories, the Greens and Margo Macdonald, while Mr Salmond is playing hardball.
Together, they will bring the Tories, Greens and Ms Macdonald on board and make Labour and the Lib Dems think very carefully about abstaining today.
With many Labour seats vulnerable in a fresh election, there will now be many MSPs who will have to think long and hard before they press their "no" buttons in the vote today – which is just what Mr Salmond wants.
The full article contains 1197 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
