LABOUR'S woes seem to multiply almost by the day. As if Gordon Brown did not have enough problems already, the resignation of Wendy Alexander and a by-election in Glasgow East have created fresh uncertainty, just when the Prime Minister might have ho
ped for some let-up over the summer.
After half a century as the dominant force in Scottish politics, Labour still doesn't know quite how to handle opposition, either in the Scottish Parliament or in councils such as Edinburgh, and with the UK Government facing one crisis after another, it is looking more and more as if Tony Blair got out just before everything began to turn sour.
Ms Alexander's decision to quit came as a shock to her colleagues. They tried to persuade her she had already endured worse things than the standards committee's narrow vote to suspend her for a day over failing to register donations. But with a further complaint over a press release still waiting to be investigated, she saw the issue dragging on until the end of the year, and decided to call it a day.
Her nine months in charge of the party were blighted almost from the start by the donations row, poor performances against Alex Salmond and then the referendum controversy.
Everyone agrees there has to be a contest to succeed her – there'll be no coronation this time.
Former Health Minister Andy Kerr is favourite. Supporters says his pugnacious approach would put Labour on the front foot and land some blows on the SNP, but others fear his confident, aggressive style would look like a pale imitation of Alex Salmond.
East Lothian MSP Iain Gray is well-liked in the party and proved himself a capable minister in the first Labour-Liberal Democrat Scottish Executive. He is being painted as Westminster's choice because of his role, after losing his seat, as special adviser to Alistair Darling, but it means he has seen how devolution works from both sides of the fence.
Mr Gray could suffer as his base is on the east coast, while Labour's traditional strength has been more on the west, but the party would make a serious mistake if it reacted to its current predicament by retreating to its former heartland.
Cathy Jamieson, the current deputy leader and former Justice Minister, has strong centre-left credentials and, according to one insider, that puts her in tune with what most of the party is thinking.
Margaret Curran, former Communities Minister, is the fourth possible contender. She, too, has her roots in the party's left, but while she has said she's considering putting her name forward, insiders say she's the least likely of the four to run. None of these contenders is thought to be too keen to endorse Ms Alexander's call for an early referendum on independence, but the leadership vote allows a proper debate on that and other issues.
The contest will be decided by three voting blocks – the party members, the unions and the parliamentarians – each with one third of the total votes. Mr Kerr is seen as the most likely to secure union backing, while Mr Gray has been tipped to win among the parliamentarians, and Ms Jamieson would be expected to get the members' support.
None of the candidates looks like an obvious match for the supremely self-confident Mr Salmond at the weekly head-to-head of First Minister's Questions, but that's a situation to which Labour is going to have to adapt.
A change of leader could give the party an opportunity for a new start, but other changes look more like risks.
On top of Ms Alexander's resignation at the weekend came the announcement that veteran MP David Marshall is to quit on health grounds. His Glasgow East constituency includes some of the most deprived communities in Scotland and is one of Labour's safest seats. But in the current situation the SNP will be working flat out for the 20 per cent swing it would need to snatch the seat. Pundits are predicting a defeat here could even force Gordon Brown from office.
Edinburgh East MP Gavin Strang, Scotland's longest-serving representative in the Commons, is not forcing a by-election, but he has decided to stand down at the next general election. After nearly 40 years at Westminster he deserves his retirement, but his departure could risk another Labour loss to the SNP.
Kenny MacAskill took the equivalent Holyrood seat last year and the SNP will be redoubling its efforts now Dr Strang has confirmed he is going.
To add to the changing face of the party in Edinburgh, Ewan Aitken has stepped down and handed over to Andrew Burns.
At both ends of the Royal Mile, Labour will be hoping changed faces now bring changed fortunes.
The full article contains 828 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
