Scotland's growing pains as population rise creates great divide

VAST differences are set to emerge in patterns of population across Scotland over the next 25 years, according to the latest demographic forecasts.

The figures give a sobering "snapshot" projection for Scotland's 32 local authority areas, showing drifts in population, a massive increase in the number of elderly people and a sharp drop in the number under the age of 15.

The official projections from the General Register Office will have major implications for Scotland's infrastructure, including the number of schools, hospitals, roads and houses.

Overall, the population is predicted to rise to 5.37 million by 2031, an increase of 250,000.

Closer examination shows a population rise in 15 of Scotland's 32 council areas, with West Lothian and Perth and Kinross experiencing the highest increase, at 22 per cent.

The biggest losers are Inverclyde and East Dunbartonshire, where falls of 15 per cent have been projected. Some of our biggest cities are also affected, with both Aberdeen and Glasgow suffering declines.

In terms of Scotland's economy, the number of people of working age is set to rise in only 14 areas – leaving 18 with a declining workforce.

Edinburgh, with its booming financial services, IT and tourism sectors, will enjoy the largest increase, at 18 per cent, while East Dunbartonshire is forecast to experience a 25 per cent drop.

The predictions reveal that the elderly population could rise by 81 per cent, with Aberdeenshire's soaring by 156 per cent.

Meanwhile, the number of children is expected to fall in three-quarters of council areas, most notably in Shetland (down 31 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (29 per cent).

Craig McCorriston, senior planning manager for West Lothian Council, said: "While we are delighted to be at the centre of Scotland's economy, it brings infrastructure issues with it. This is certainly an issue for us, but we have had forewarning from previous estimates.

"We are looking at a situation where we will need new investment for around 25,000 new houses and up to 12 primary schools and three secondary schools to cope with the influx.

"This means we need around £125 million by 2025 to pay for the schools."

Mike Beale, the president of Perthshire Chamber of Commerce, said the projected population increase in Perth and Kinross reflected its prime location.

"I'm not surprised by the figures, as we're located only 90 minutes away from 90 per cent of Scotland, making us an ideal base for businesses and a good place for commuters to cities such as Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Inverness," he said. "Plans for a rail link will also make a difference. But, like many places across Scotland, we can see that this projection will throw up a problem of a lack of affordable housing."

David Lonsdale, the assistant director of CBI Scotland, said: "We have consistently argued that Scotland must plan for growth, and that our infrastructure and planning system must be based on the premise that Scotland in 25 years time will have a larger and more dynamic economy, with a growing and wealthier population."

He went on: "Our economy benefits from being open to the skills that migrant workers bring, but we must not fall into the trap of thinking that immigration is the sole solution to the skills problems we face. Inward migration cannot be an alternative to upskilling our indigenous workforce or to labour market policies that help those on benefits back to work."

How population change will affect your region
Job opportunities and the continued effect of ageing are key factors in where people will choose to live, writes SHÂN ROSS

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THIS picture of Scotland in 2031 shows a massive shift in population towards the areas where jobs are to be found. Edinburgh and its surrounding region will act as a magnet, offering new opportunities, while other urban areas such as Glasgow, Aberdeen and Dundee are projected to decline.

West Lothian and Perth and Kinross will see their populations rise by 22 per cent, East Lothian by 21 per cent and Aberdeenshire by 19 per cent.

Large population decreases are expected in Inverclyde (down by 15 per cent), East Dunbartonshire (down by 15 per cent), Shetland (down by 10 per cent) and the city of Aberdeen (down by 9 per cent).

However, the key factor is that while the population is expected to rise over the next 25 years, it will age markedly.

There will be a massive increase in the number of over-75s – up by 81 per cent across the country and by up to 156 per cent in Aberdeenshire.

The largest increases in the number of youngsters are expected to be in East Lothian and Perth and Kinross, where there are projected rises of 15 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

An increasing population has the potential to boost Scotland's economic growth and help the nation prosper.

But the figures, compiled by some of the best statistical brains, can sometimes be somewhat off the mark.

Five years ago, there were dire warnings that Scotland's population was set to fall below the vital five million mark. However, this did not happen, largely because of the unexpected number of migrants from eastern Europe.

The population is now not expected to dip to that level for another 40 years. Meanwhile, Britain's overall population – which is set to go up from 60.6 million in 2006 to 71 million in 2031 – is predicted to continue rising.

Robert Wright, professor of economics at Strathclyde University, said the projections were based on assumptions which can be unreliable.

He said: "We have to consider these figures carefully. What you do is put in numbers and then find various ways of interpreting them. That means there is a large range of vagueness.

"The predictions are useful for councils as they impact on how much money they will get from central government.

"Ageing is not going to be stopped, so it allows them to plan for it and adapt services which will be expensive.

"It also begs the question of whether dividing the country into 32 areas is the best way of determining resources."

We must prepare for people drifting away from cities
ANALYSIS
ALAN ROBERTSON

MAJOR population changes over the next 25 years will throw up a whole host of challenges for bodies and authorities across Scotland.

Areas such as West Lothian and Perth have seen major population growth in recent years and it is no surprise that these areas have been identified for significant further growth.

There has been a growing trend for people to move out of the city to areas like this and travel in to Glasgow and Edinburgh to work. There is no doubt this is very likely to continue. Today, people are much more accepting of this kind of commuter lifestyle, much more so than, say, 15 or 20 years ago, when it was seen as a thing people did in London.

Growing numbers of people have been prepared to travel into Glasgow daily from the likes of Dunbartonshire, Ayrshire and Lanarkshire, and, increasingly, commuters may be prepared to travel further. They feel it is worth an hour-long drive at either end of the day because of the quality of life on offer in these areas, and the fact that the price of property is so much less than in the cities.

However, these trends have implications for the roads network, to ensure it can cope with the extra traffic that will be generated. It's also crucial we look at providing more park-and-ride sites outside our cities, as well as improving the capacity of our railways and other forms of public transport.

The other key issue is that we need to ensure we continue to provide new places for people to work, whether it be major office developments or business units. This obviously applies to cities, but it is also very relevant to areas of major growth, and there must be an ample supply of land available to cater for demand for business space, as well as for housing.

It can take a long time to get major structural plans through the planning system, so it's vital local authorities and other bodies start looking at the predicted trends now and plan ahead for the future.

In areas of declining population, as long as there is enough of a critical mass of people, it is not so much of a problem. It is when local authorities start to have half-empty schools and declining numbers of people using public transport that they will have problems making them financially viable. They will then face very tough decisions on whether to keep them going or not.

• Alan Robertson is Scottish managing director of the property and planning consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle Scotland.

CHALLENGES POSED BY THE CHANGES
• BY 2031 the number of children aged below 15 will fall in 24 out of 32 local authority areas. Shetland will see the largest drop at 31 per cent while in East Dunbartonshire numbers will fall by 29 per cent.

Ronnie Smith, president of the EIS, said the figures posed "big" questions for education authorities.

• The number of over-75s is expected to rise by 81 per cent. Aberdeenshire can expect a massive increase of 156 per cent. Lindsay Scott, spokesman for Help The Aged in Scotland, said local authorities should start planning now and people in their 40s and 50s should "get into training" for a longer life.