How Labour found ominous chink in the SNP's armour

IT IS perhaps debatable which was Labour's greater achievement in Glenrothes: getting the Prime Minister to smile or wiping the smirk from the First Minister's face. But they certainly managed both.

Labour did not just defend a safe seat successfully (something it failed to do in Glasgow East in July or Dunfermline two years ago). It managed to increase its share of the vote – by as much as three points. Only rarely do governments manage to accomplish this in by-elections.

The Tories didn't manage it once in any of the Scottish by-elections held when they were in office between 1979 and 1997. It last happened to a Labour government in Berwick and East Lothian in 1978, when the SNP were on the slide.

Not that this was obviously the fate of the SNP in Glenrothes. The nationalist vote was well up – by 13 points compared with its (admittedly poor) result in 2005. However, that was only half the increase the party achieved in Glasgow East.

But perhaps more ominously for Alex Salmond, his party's share of the spoils was down – by nearly seven points – on what happened in the constituency in last year's Scottish Parliament election. Perhaps the SNP honeymoon is indeed well and truly over after all. In truth, however, the outcome in Glenrothes exaggerates the SNP's difficulties and Labour's recovery. Two local by-elections that were also held on Thursday, one in Glasgow and one in Edinburgh, paint a more sober picture.

In both cases, there was still a small swing to the SNP since last year, albeit insufficient in either case for the nationalists to deny Labour victory. At the same time, the Glasgow contest – in a ward in the east end – confirmed that there has been a modest 4 per cent swing back to Labour in recent weeks. It is that 4 per cent figure, not the Glenrothes movement, that chimes with the size of the "Brown bounce" as measured in recent polls.

Yet if the Glenrothes result was exceptional, the way in which it was achieved must still give Alex Salmond pause for thought. Instead of fighting as the UK government that had solved the banking crisis, Labour primarily positioned itself as the opposition to the SNP on Fife Council and at Holyrood. Its key ploy was to make hay with increased charges for homecare and emergency alarms.

This homecare row was not just a local issue. It exemplified what has been Labour's key critique of the SNP government to date – that in spending money to keep the council tax down and to reduce business rates, the nationalists have put essential public services in peril.

In Glenrothes, Labour demonstrated an ability to give that intellectual argument a highly charged emotional resonance. In so doing, it perhaps made people question just whose "side" the nationalists are on after all; potentially a far more fruitful line of attack than scaremongering about the perils of independence. Of course, Labour's ability to exploit the issue as effectively as it did in Glenrothes was enhanced because the SNP candidate, Peter Grant, was the leader of the council responsible for the charges in question. In hindsight, his selection must be regarded as a tactical error.

Nevertheless, the SNP has been warned that it will need to be more effective in future in responding to this line of attack if its reputation for good governance in Scotland's interests is not to be undermined.

The SNP was far from being the only party to be disappointed with the outcome. Both the Conservatives, whose vote fell by three points, and the Liberal Democrats, whose tally collapsed by no less than ten points, were badly squeezed as voters focused on the tussle between Labour and the SNP.

There is still no sign at all of Mr Cameron's Tory revival percolating north of the Border.

Meanwhile, Nick Clegg and Tavish Scott have learned the hard way that promises of tax cuts are not necessarily a guarantee of success. Fortunately for them, most Lib Dem MPs in Scotland are sitting on large majorities. They may well need them.

• John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University.

A result that took even the bookies by surprise

PUNTERS, politicians and pundits all got their predictions largely wrong for Glenrothes.

But the worst culprits were the bookies, who are meant to have the inside track.

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, certainly had a flutter, although there is no word about how out of pocket he is.

Ladbrokes spokesman Nick Weinberg, said: "We were as stunned as anyone by the result. The SNP were all the rage in the days before, while Labour appeared to be friendless."

Even SNP researchers on modest wages took a punt, no doubt skewing the odds.

But ultimately, the will to win did not pay off in either cash or constituency terms.

The SNP were on 1/5 to win before Ladbrokes stopped betting. And Labour, who closed as 11/4 outsiders, defied the odds emphatically to keep the seat.

The betting firm said yesterday that Labour was now 11/4 to win the next general election, in from 5/2.