Five Scottish 'ghost towns' named where downturn will hit hardest

FIVE Scottish towns that will be the most blighted by widespread high-street closures have been named today.

The Scotsman understands that Clydebank, Kirkintilloch, Rutherglen, Cumbernauld and Kilmarnock will suffer the biggest fallout from the downturn in the retail sector.

The towns were singled out for already having empty premises and as those most reliant on chain store firms that have folded in recent months.

The centres were named by a business researcher, Experian, which also warned that one in seven shops across the UK would be empty by the end of this year.

The devastating forecast came despite better than expected results for some high-street giants, including Debenhams, Next and Co-op.

The Scottish Retail Consortium also confirmed it feared that, unlike previous recessions, Scotland would not buck the slump as so many of the country's high streets now have UK-wide chain stores. High streets and shopping centres that relied on foot traffic from now-defunct chains such as Woolworths, Dolcis and Stead & Simpson were particularly vulnerable.

Jonathan de Mello, director of property consultancy at Experian, said the Scottish towns named already had a high proportion of vacant retail space.

"The situation can only get worse for these towns going forwards as more retailers suffer the fallout from poor Christmas trading and seek to reduce their store portfolios as a result or go into administration," he said.

"The unprecedented level of retail vacancy will be disproportionately spread across Britain, so that smaller retail destinations will be worse affected. The loss of major multiples such as Woolworths will leave a significant gap in these towns and is likely to have a knock-on effect with other retailers.

"Many local authorities and centre managers will face a challenge this year, as they seek to reverse the effects of retail decline."

Across Britain, there would be a devastating impact on people's livelihoods, with more jobs going in the wake of closures of household names such as Woolworths, MFI and the Pier.

Mr de Mello added: "Britain is still a nation of shopkeepers and the retail sector is one of the UK's largest employers. It is not just people directly employed by retailers that will suffer from the fallout this Christmas, it is also their suppliers and service providers."

But Fiona Moriarty, the director of the Scottish Retail Consortium, said rural towns could escape the worst of the fallout as residents, particularly those in the Highlands and Islands, did not have alternative shopping destinations nearby and would still spend locally.

But for many high streets and shopping centres, she agreed the outlook was gloomy. "It has been a very difficult 2008 and, in the first quarter of 2009, a number of retailers will not be able to continue trading."

She added Scotland had always traded proportionately better than the rest of the UK but warned this time could be different. "We are in unprecedented times. The current crisis is a UK-wide one."

"Mid-tier" retailers, in particular those associated with homewares and electronics, are expected to struggle through the downturn while discount and superstores could perform better as more customers "downgrade" to cheaper brands for basic items and fashion purchases.