JACK McConnell, the former first minister, warned in 2004 that Scotland was facing a demographic time-bomb and its population was set to drop below five million.
However, figures published yesterday reveal that this gloomy assessment may actually be in reverse – with the biggest population growth in Scotland since 1983.
Figures published yesterday by the General Register Office for Scotland show the popula
tion rose by 27,300 to 5,144,200 between mid-2006 and mid-2007. This means Scotland's population has increased by 1.6 per cent since 2001, when the total was around the five-million mark.
The increase was boosted by record immigration to Scotland, more UK citizens moving north of the Border than going south, and an increase in births. The statistics were immediately hailed by John Swinney, the cabinet secretary for finance and sustainable growth, as the basis of the country's economic future success and evidence that Scotland is a more attractive place to live.
However, Mr Swinney was yesterday warned that a closer analysis of the numbers reveal that the upward trend is likely to be temporary.
Immigration played a major part in the increase, with 37,800 people, including asylum seekers, coming to Scotland from overseas and 21,000 leaving Scotland to go overseas – a net influx of 16,800, which is the highest ever and compares with an inflow of 12,700 in 2005-6. This rise is partly a result of the Fresh Talent Initiative, launched by Mr McConnell. It also reflects a high number of immigrants from eastern Europe.
The Federation of Small Businesses Scotland (FSBS) cautioned that, while the increase was good news, the latest figures do not reflect a number of eastern Europeans who have since left because of the rising value of the euro and stronger economies in their homelands.
An FSBS spokesman said: "Whilst these figures are great news, we are very wary about taking one set of figures until we see a trend. We have raised serious concerns about the effect on the Scottish economy of people returning to eastern Europe, and that will not be reflected in these figures. We shall have to wait until we see the picture for this year before we can see if last year's figures were a reflection of what is happening to the Scottish population."
There were 1,835 more births in 2007 than in 2006. Added to that, 1,100 more babies were born than deaths in 2007, the first year this had happened since 1997. Duncan Macniven, the Registrar General for Scotland, said this increase was also mostly due to immigration.
"Mothers from eastern Europe accounted for a third of the increase in births between 2006 and 2007, although only one in 50 of all births in Scotland was to a mother from eastern Europe," he said.
Another factor in the increase was the number of people coming in from other parts of the UK – 51,500 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland, while 42,700 went in the opposite direction, a net influx of 8,800.
Mr Swinney said that a rising population was key for Scotland's economic growth and he remained optimistic that this would continue.
"For over four decades, Scotland has been a country of substantial net out-migration," he said. "Crucially, over the last ten years in particular, our population growth has lagged well behind that of the UK.
"But these latest, very positive, population estimates show that we are beginning to turn the corner. Fewer people are leaving Scotland; large numbers are choosing to come here and our birthrate is rising.
"An increasing population and a vibrant labour market have the potential to boost Scotland's economic growth and help our nation prosper."
The Scottish Government's economic strategy sets out the route map for Scotland to match the GDP growth rate of small independent European Union countries by 2017, as well as to match EU-15 population growth over the period to 2017.
"We recognise there is more to do and are developing Fresh Talent and other policies to ensure that we continue to attract more skilled workers to Scotland and retain more of our homegrown talent," Mr Swinney said.
The figures showed that Clackmannanshire was the council area with the biggest annual population increase, at 2 per cent, followed by East Lothian up 1.7 per cent and Perth and Kinross up 1.4 per cent.
Aberdeen, which has had a decade of population decline, was up 1.1 per cent, but is still 3.7 per cent below its population ten years ago.
East Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde had the largest percentage population falls, at minus 0.6 per cent, while the Western Isles and West Dunbartonshire had falls of 0.2 per cent.
Two-children limit would help cut global warming
DOCTORS yesterday raised the question of whether couples should be told that stopping at two children is "the simplest and biggest contribution" that can be made to fighting climate change.
In an editorial in the British Medical Journal, John Guillebaud of University College, London, and Pip Hayes, a GP, called for universal access to contraception.
They said: "We must not put pressure on people, but by providing information on the population and the environment, and appropriate contraception for everyone (and by their own example), doctors should help to bring family size into the arena of environmental ethics, analogous to avoiding patio heaters and high-carbon cars."
They pointed to research from the Optimum Population Trust which said that each new birth in the UK will be responsible for 160 times more greenhouse gas emissions than a birth in Ethiopia. Globally, they said, rising population has led to food shortages, escalating prices and riots.
The global population is increasing by 79 million people a year.
The full article contains 975 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
