Is Putin's heir a president or a puppet?

Russia and rest of the world waits to find out if Dmitry Medvedev will be leader in name only

RUSSIA is, to all intents and purposes, a one-party state. When Dmitry Medvedev is confirmed as Vladimir Putin's successor today it will mark the anointment of the Russian president's choice rather than the culmination of any truly democratic process.

The Russian people have had little say when it comes to choosing Putin's successor. Medvedev is an unprepossessing 42-year-old bureaucrat who has never held an elected office. Putin only stood down as president because the law requires him to do so after two terms, and the widespread suspicion is that he will continue to rule the country, with Medvedev leader in name only.

Western analysts are scrutinising the two men for clues as to their future relationship. The differences in style and approach have already been apparent.

On Thursday, Putin sharply criticised the West and the United States, threatened to aim strategic missiles at Europe and said Russia would continue to develop its own state-centred brand of democracy without interference from outside.

The same day, Medvedev spoke in softer tones, addressing Russia's middle class and small-business owners, embracing themes familiar to the West and promising to tackle waste and corruption.

"Freedom is better than nonfreedom," he said. "It is necessary to change radically the ideology of administrative procedures dealing with starting and holding a business. We need realistic chances for the development of small businesses, which are drowning today in a swamp of official indifference and bribes."

Only time will tell whether the differences are ones of substance or style.

"Medvedev has been enunciating liberal themes, and that's encouraging," said Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group, a prominent global risk consulting firm.

"But we have to remember that this entire campaign is being run by Putin; and Putinism, broadly meaning a large state role in the economy and an assertive foreign policy, is not going to change soon, because Putin is not leaving the scene."

Kupchan suggested that Medvedev's candidacy, and the message of his platform, had been chosen by Putin because of the importance of improving Russia's reputation.

"An image is being created for Medvedev that will smooth the way for Russian investors to invest abroad," he said. "That is very important to the Kremlin."

Medvedev is working hard to differentiate himself from Putin, avoiding the stern themes that have often accompanied Putin's appearances. He has presented himself as both a Putin loyalist and a president-in-waiting who will wield power more gently.

Whether this is a pose is an open question. Medvedev has talked of how liberty is necessary for the state to have legitimacy, and has laid out domestic policy goals in what seems like a communiqué to Russia's expanding consumer class. He has also hammed it up with heavy metal legends Deep Purple, suggesting a playfulness at odds with dour former KGB man Putin.

Yet can he deal with the failure to modernise industry or agriculture, the growing corruption in government, the ubiquitous drunkenness, the record numbers of murders and suicides, the terrible state of Russian healthcare and the problems that come with a shrinking population?

And does he have the ability to reverse Putin's increasingly paranoiac and vindictive attitude to opposition of any form? It is Putin who put Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man, in a subarctic Siberian labour camp, his Yukos oil company grabbed by Putin's cronies.

Under Putin, employees of the state have been dragooned into canvassing for the government; opposition activists have been overwhelmed by death threats. Nor are foreign institutions immune: Putin took exception to the European University of St Petersburg's analysis, so he accused it of being an agent of foreign meddling and had it closed down as a "fire risk".

Sergei Markov, a political scientist who is close to the Kremlin and a member of parliament, said Medvedev, a lawyer with roots in St Petersburg, had an affinity for the West. "Medvedev will try to encourage political competition without destabilising the system," he said. "How he does this, we will see. But stability will be the priority."

There have been extensive efforts to ensure a smooth handover of power. The absence of any meaningful opposition has helped. The only opposition candidate capable of giving Putin's successor a run for his money – former Putin cheerleader turned arch-critic, oligarch Yury Luzhkov – was blocked from the ballot.

With no viable opposition, Medvedev, the deputy prime minister and chairman of the board at Gazprom, has been free to fashion whatever image he desires. He has emanated intelligence and calm, but little of Putin's intensity.

State-controlled television covers him extensively and warmly. There is little public discussion of Russia's future course, far less of Medvedev's qualifications to lead a country with 140 million people, a nuclear arsenal and the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves.

Instead, Medvedev has used the campaign as an open microphone, saying

he will improve schools and healthcare, build housing, encourage business and amend the tax code to encourage household and social stability. He has promised to slash Russia's elephantine bureaucracy.

His real differences with Putin, however, come with foreign policy. Putin, an exercise buff and martial arts expert, emanates a catlike fitness and a comfort with conflict that extends into an assertive attitude towards foreign policy, while Medvedev has yet to mention Russia's role in the world.

Analysts don't expect substantial change in the short term and the first indication of whether Medvedev is a cut-out-and-keep leader or a man with his hand on the levers of power may not come until the summer, when the Kremlin will send a delegation to the G8 meeting in Japan.

Already, informal bets are being taken on whether Putin, Medvedev or both men will attend.

Gas supply to Ukraine cut
Gazprom, Russia's gas monopoly and the company of which Dimitry Medvedev is chairman, says it will cut supplies to Ukraine by 25% at 7am tomorrow morning after talks between the two sides ended in failure.

The state-run Russian company said its efforts to get Ukraine to pay its debts had "reached a dead end". Gazprom claims it is owed £770m by Ukraine for gas already supplied.

Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Viktor Yushchenko reached an outline deal, but the details could not be agreed.

Western commentators accuse Moscow of using Gazprom as a political tool. Gazprom said it was ready to continue negotiations over the weekend. But Ukraine's deputy prime minister said the money had already been transferred and that documents to confirm this had been sent to Gazprom.

A previous row between the two sides saw Russia cut gas to Ukraine in 2006, also hitting exports to Western Europe. The European Commission said it has been assured by Gazprom that supplies to the EU will not be affected by any renewed cut in exports to Ukraine.