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Royal Bank reaps billions as investors raise prospect of rival bids for HBOS



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Published Date: 21 September 2008
ROYAL Bank of Scotland has sucked in "several billions" from nervous investors as new bidders threaten to gatecrash the £12bn merger between HBOS and Lloyds TSB.
RBS is understood to have been a huge beneficiary of the continuing turmoil in the sector with HBOS customers among those to have joined what one banking source described as "a flight to quality".

Corporate and retail investors have switched savings and other investments to those institutions seen to offer greater security.

Worldwide panic caused by last week's extraordinary fluctuations on stock markets forced HBOS and Lloyds TSB into a hurried merger, but this weekend there are indications that some leading shareholders want to see other bidders emerge.

Scotland on Sunday has learned that Bank of America and Citigroup, along with Spanish bank BBVA, could be tempted to mount counterbids due to discontent over the deal.

One source said: "There is a general feeling that Lloyds is getting too much of a bargain. With the markets coming back strongly on Friday there is every chance that values will rise and HBOS will be seen as a giveaway."

Another said: "I don't feel much better about the near-term risks that face the combined group. If anything, the apparent vulnerability of the group to a wholesale funding drought appears higher. This has to be the biggest issue for now, and is not one that is in the control of the management."

The offer of 0.83 of a Lloyds TSB share for every one HBOS share valued the latter at 232p at the close on Wednesday. But that preceded the biggest-ever one-day rise in the FTSE-100 as markets responded positively to news from the US of emergency intervention on toxic debts. At Friday's close the offer valued each HBOS share at 237p. They closed at 222.5p having touched 263p.

Shareholders are particularly angry that if the deal had been done before last weekend they may have got more than 300p per share. Those who took up the rights issue at 275p per share are said to be particularly aggrieved.

Bank of America – which has just mopped up Merrill Lynch – and Citigroup would both covet the retail banking business in the UK that HBOS could offer. Citigroup only has egg, the internet bank.

HSBC was approached about acquiring HBOS but Lloyds TSB stepped in when the potential competition obstacle was lifted. It is understood that HSBC has again ruled itself out of a bid.

One big concern for shareholders is the newly combined group's 163% loan-to-deposit ratio. It means that for every £1 of lending, it has 37p in deposits. That compares with a ratio of 127% at RBS, or 73p covering every £1 on loan.

While this leaves Lloyds TSB and HBOS vulnerable, RBS will see huge benefits from attracting deposits from fund manager, corporates and ordinary savers. Several billion in extra funds from depositors is a small but significant contribution to its total deposits of £440bn as it reduces the need to seek funds from the difficult wholesale money markets. HBOS has £258bn on deposit.

Amid speculation over the merger, questions continue to be asked about why neither camp confirmed the talks to the market for several hours while the shares slumped. Calls have been made for an inquiry into possible market abuse.

Lloyds TSB management are this weekend hammering out further details of the merger. Scotland on Sunday has learned that:

• Both banks deny any wrongdoing in issuing announcements to the market. A source involved in the talks said: "You never do. You carry on the talks until you come to a deal."

• The name will not be Lloyds-Halifax despite rumours to the contrary.

• No decision has been made on job losses as the banks "have not worked out how the synergies will be achieved".

• Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, apparently only met Sir Victor Blank, the Lloyds TSB chairman, after the press release was drafted and he had no hand in insisting that there was a sentence referring to the protection of Scottish jobs.

• Andy Hornby, chief executive of HBOS, will almost certainly join the combined board. His new role was described as "work in progress".

• Archie Kane, chief executive of Lloyds-owned Scottish Widows, will meet First Minister Alex Salmond on Tuesday to discuss jobs and the role of Scotland in the new group.


The full article contains 748 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Jambo Dave,

Edinburgh 21/09/2008 00:42:20
Brown hands BoS on a plate?Don't let him get away with it vote against it if you have shares,protest on the Mound,let them know we are not going stand for this con.
Now we may have other posters coming on here with more know how of the workings of the markets who will say get real what done is done.
I don't believe that,this is political, if the plebs stand up to them we can make our points to them.When it comes down to it all they are worried about is there own skin and there high office.
Brown and co are dead meat they will squirm and turn if they think there's half a chance it may keep them in office.
Time to think of whats best for Scotland and Scots workers,and that's not what Westminster is about is it?
2

Evan Owen,

Snowdonia 21/09/2008 08:55:44
Vote against it? Who will take any notice? What will it solve? What happens if they don't merge? What happens if they do!!
3

Aye Right...,

21/09/2008 09:45:27
Personally I'm going to move my account to First Direct. HSBC is about the only UK bank that is safe and if, as is rumoured, they take over RBS I won't have to move my account again.
4

gggrumpy,

21/09/2008 10:36:10
Aye, they have all put their money in the RBS right enough.
After Sir Fred squandering £54 billion on ABN Amro to satisfy his ego the RBS is about 1% safer than HBOS was.
5

livilion,

livingston 21/09/2008 12:42:05
So how long before Lloyds TSB HBOS is taken over itself?

My mind goes back to the Guiness aquisition of Distillers back in the 80's; iffy manipulations going on behind the scenes, same promises- of course Bells' HQ at Perth future is guaranteed, etc, etc...
6

Here Today HBOS Tomorrow,

21/09/2008 13:47:40
Well why not support the parts of the financial sector which have not got too greedy? RBS is a mess due to its vast overpayment for ABN, keep in mind it had to ask for 12bn to keep itself going. IF you really detest these greedy bankers who will probably keep their bonuses and shortly get bailed out by the Government then I suggest you put your money in to mutual banks or the building societies. Airdie Savings bank may be small but atleast its not run for the bonuses, or why not the Scottish Building Society or Dunfermline. Others include credit unions or the CO-OP bank.

I for one am going to move everything to the mutual sector as soon as I possibly can.
7

Cant use my name anymore either - Alexandrina,

benbecula 21/09/2008 13:56:20
Sir Peter Burt, ex Gov Bank of Scot said on Politics Show (BBC) today:
Why did Chancellor not pump £100bn into the banking system on Wed rather than Friday? (thus saving HBOS from hands of LLoyds/TSB)
Why was short selling practice not banned on Wed?
FSA had given HBOS good bill of health on Wed (did Chancellor not believe FSA as Reg Authority?)
Liklihood of HBOS given away "on the cheap" in frenzied and volatile market last Wed
Sir Peter reckons alt bids will now emerge for HBOS thus keeping its independence
Capitalism is alive and well!
Good time to buy HBOS (converse of short selling)?
Why can't ord punters get a slice of this "short selling" spivs/speculators' market? Investment houses borrowing from pension funds to "sell" then making a killing! I've just borrowed my brother's house in Spain, "sold" for 800,000 euros, and given depressed housing market in Spain will sell back to him in two months' time for 700,000 euros. I hope he'll be pleased! I've just made a killing of 100,000 euros. This is the LIFE!!
8

Skooshster,

Edinburgh 21/09/2008 17:54:21
'One big concern for shareholders is the newly combined group's 163% loan-to-deposit ratio. It means that for every £1 of lending, it has 37p in deposits. That compares with a ratio of 127% at RBS, or 73p covering every £1 on loan.'

I would have thought that a 163% loan-to-deposit ratio would mean that for every £1 of lending it has just over 61p in deposits. If the equivalent ratio at RBS is 127%, then it has almost 79p covering every £1 on loan. If I've got that wrong, perhaps someone from the SOS Business team could explain how they arrived at their figures.
9

Skooshster,

Edinburgh 21/09/2008 18:05:55
I think it's stretching it a bit to describe movement of deposits to RBS as a 'flight to quality'. Given the recent hugely 'over the odds' acquisition of ABN AMRO their own management track record doesn't look all that solid and if I was looking to move my modest deposits from HBOS, RBS wouldn't be very high on the list of possible homes. If the story is as soundly based as the example loans-to-deposits calculation maybe it's little more than an RBS press release under the Business Editor's by-line.

10

Nero the yam,

21/09/2008 18:10:14
#4

RBS, Santander and Fortis paid £54 billion for ABN.

RBS paid £10 billion for their share of ABN.

Not just gggrumpy but dddopey too.
11

gggrumpy,

21/09/2008 21:46:23
10* RBS was by some considerable way, the biggest investor in ABN Amro.
Your no nero, your a total zero, mate.
12

Tr1xx,

Edinburgh 21/09/2008 23:49:46
Bring back Sir Bruce Patullo out of retirement for a year to try and sort everything out. This whole sorry saga would never have happened during his watch. He must be appalled. The Bank Of Scotland was a venerable instution during his period as governor. In comparison, Andy Hornby shouldn't be allowed to manage your local McDonalds
13

Grumpy,

22/09/2008 06:39:42
(12) - Come on - what have McDonalds done to deserve Andy Hornby? He would move in and KFC would take it over within a couple of months, with Andy earning another fat bonus.

Once a shopkeeper, always a shopkeeper - but never a banker!
14

Royster,

22/09/2008 07:05:02
Skhooshter #8. I thought loan-to-deposit ratio was measured by dividing the total amountof loans by the total amount of deposits and then multiplying by 10. So if yo have loaned out one pound (100 pence) and have 37p in deposit your Loan-to-deposit ratio equals 270%.
15

sirnigel,

NEWTONMORE 22/09/2008 09:18:11
Further to various articles on the above, has anybody thought of this solution ?

As the current situation seems to stem from the Halifax exposure to mortgages, why don't Halifax and B.o.S. de-merge. We then get our own viable bank back and Halifax and Lloyds can go off and do their own thing.

(As stock exchange rules seem to allow short trading surely "anything goes")

I read somewhere that the new set-up won't be official until later so there is still time for this.
16

Nero the yam,

at work (in an RBS office) 22/09/2008 13:33:32
#13

I would be interested to know how you are so sure that "RBS was by some considerable way, the biggest investor in ABN Amro" seeing as I am sitting looking at the RBS intranet and reading that the ABN businesses they bought cost them £10 billion.

gggrumpy, dddopey and wwwrong.

17

RCro,

22/09/2008 14:20:33
#8 Skooshster,Edinburgh 21/09/2008 17:54:21

You're right, how did this copy get through? Is this a factual error or a mathmatical error?
18

gggrumpy,

22/09/2008 15:24:51
16* You dont believe what you read on bankers intranet sites do you?

HBOS were telling there employees everything was hunkey dorey the day before they were taken over.

Suggest you get yourself down to the job centre pronto.
19

Jo Larkinson,

22/09/2008 17:33:14
Bank of America? Citigroup? BBVA? Surely this has to be worse than a bank with Scottish roots like Lloyds TSB?! Whatever its eventual fate, looks like HBOS is certainly a gonna.
20

Jo Larkinson,

22/09/2008 17:39:18
The reason RBS shares have been going up is surely because many people expect RBS to receive a handout from the American taxpayer; hardly reassuring for RBS customers. I'm afraid I've moved my money to HSBC - I'm not wealthy enough to take risks with my hard earned .. .
21

Nero the yam,

at home 22/09/2008 21:31:47
#18

"bankers intranet site", wtf is that ?

I am guessing you are referring to the intranet of a global company where I read the exact same presentation that was given to shareholders detailing the CORRECT amount of money paid by RBS for their share of ABN.

You still haven't explained where you have got your information from that "RBS was by some considerable way, the biggest investor in ABN Amro". Come on, I really am interested in knowing. Whilst you are divulging all these 'facts' can you also answe this - if £54 billion was the cost of acquiring ABN to the 3 parties in the consortium how much constitutes RBS' "some considerable way". £30 billion, £40 billion ?

gggrumpy, dddopey, wwwrong & ccclueless
22

gggrumpy,

22/09/2008 23:37:16
"Analyst at Execution stockbrokers, estimate that RBS is acquiring the wholesale and Asian business on a multiple of 32 times 2006 earnings.
If RBS meets its cost cutting goal of 1.3 billion euros and boosts revenues by 500million euros this falls to a P/E ratio of 9.
Despite a recent recovery RBS shares have fallen sharply as a result of the deal and the turmoil in credit markets."
Copyright Financial Times 2008

What chance of RBS boosting revenues since then?
If anything they have probably had to make further right offs.

The deal for ABN Amro was done with undue haste and RBS vastly overpaid.

Everyone with half a brain can see that!

Over to you Nero.
23

Jo Larkinson,

23/09/2008 17:04:21
That RBS / ABN Amro deal is going to result in a lot of job losses, don't know where though.

---------
"The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has confirmed job losses are "inevitable" as the lender integrates ABN Amro's global markets division. The Financial Times reported the bank is planning to cut around 7,000 jobs – about 25 per cent of its workforce – after leading a consortium in a €71 billion takeover of ABN Amro."
24

Nero the yam,

at work 24/09/2008 13:29:40
#22

"Analyst at Execution stockbrokers, estimate that..."

is that it, the basis for your bold statements ? Let me see, I work for RBS and have read official company information pertaining to the amount of money paid for their share in ABN Amro and you are going by some article you have read. OK then !

Funnily enough you STILL haven't answered my question about how much RBS paid.

Regarding your other points, at no point did I say RBS did not overpay, in fact I agree they did. They may also have to make further write downs. Same as most other banks probably will have to too.

They didn't, however spend £54 billion on ABN Amro.

gggrumpy, dddopey, wwwrong, ccclueless and fffound out.
25

gggrumpy,

25/09/2008 17:24:54
Fortis paid 22 million euros for there part in the debacle and are rated the riskiest European Bank, according to Bloomberg.

At least that keeps the RBS out of number one spot.

 

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