D-Day in Glasgow East – and every vote counts for big two

THE battle for Glasgow East looked like going down to the wire last night, with the SNP claiming the race was "neck and neck" and Downing Street predicting a Labour victory by about 1,000 votes.

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, maintained the "ground was shaking and shuddering" as a political earthquake approached, but sources close to Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, were quietly confident.

On the ground, Margaret Curran, the Labour candidate, took to a soapbox outside a bingo hall in the East End and – accompanied by a piper – rallied her supporters to secure every last vote.

A straw poll by The Scotsman provided further evidence that the result was on a knife-edge, with talk of a complex mix of general voter apathy, long-term Labour loyalty, and disgruntlement over 11 years of New Labour and the rise in the cost of living.

This is despite the seat being – at least on paper – Labour's third safest in Scotland, after it won a 13,507 majority at the 2005 general election.

Voters were being inundated yesterday with personal letters from both Labour and the SNP. Ms Curran portrayed her SNP rival, John Mason, as a "hardline" Nationalist, while the SNP emphasised the links between Mr Brown and Margaret Thatcher, whom the Prime Minister had to tea at Downing Street last year.

Labour said it planned to knock on 1,000 doors and claimed to have 200 activists on the ground – a number it hoped to double to 400 for polling today.

Ms Curran, a Labour MSP for nine years, has attempted to fight the by-election on her own record and divert attention from Labour's unpopularity at Westminster.

She told applauding supporters yesterday: "A number of weeks ago, I promised that the Labour fightback was about to start. The Labour fightback is under way, and we are on our way.

"My message to every voter in the East End is this: use your vote to elect a fighter who will stand up for you. I promise that if I am elected, that work will start on Friday morning."

She sought to puncture the hyperbole of Mr Salmond, saying: "I think a lot of people would thank me if I got to wipe the smile off his face somewhat."

As the final day of campaigning continued, sources close to the Prime Minister told The Scotsman that he was "completely relaxed" about the by-election result.

Insiders are predicting a repeat of the 2004 by-election in Hamilton South, where Labour's majority was slashed from nearly 16,000 to 556, as well as the contest in Falkirk West in 2000 where Labour's lead was cut from 13,783 to 705.

One source said: "The feeling we get from people on the ground is that we will be looking at a similar result. It is the middle of the holiday, and there are people who are p***** off about fuel and the cost of living, but we are relaxed about the outcome and expect to win. People are not voting for a government at a general election."

The SNP held its final media call yesterday afternoon, but the mood was noticeably less confident than during a visit to the Fort shopping centre the previous day.

However, Mr Salmond told reporters that the race was "neck and neck". He said an SNP victory would be "extraordinary" in a seat that, on paper, was listed as safer than Mr Brown's parliamentary constituency of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath. He said: "I think there are very few Labour MPs in Scotland who are sleeping soundly these days."

Mr Salmond maintained the poll would be a "contrast between two governments" and allowed a focus on the "failures of the London Labour government over an 11-year period and the intense disappointment in the performance of Gordon Brown's administration".

He added: "In terms of the political earthquake, which I have detected through the campaign, let me say the ground is shaking and shuddering. I think the earthquake is coming and will arrive on schedule tomorrow. I think this is the epicentre."

Voters opt for apathy as parties 'bombard' constituency

MARGARET Curran, the Labour candidate, stood outside the Mecca Bingo Hall in the heart of the East End yesterday to deliver her "one last push" rallying cry to her loyal team.

But as the final hours of the campaign ticked away, it was difficult to see if the work of any of the parties had made a difference to the regulars.

As they wandered in for the afternoon bingo session, there were those who had taken the SNP's message to heart. One woman admitted: "The SNP has swayed me. I've been a life-long Labour supporter, but this time I'll be switching."

Others, like Hugh Sinclair, a 22-year-old ex-soldier, were already sold on the SNP message: "This is going to be the first time I've voted. I want independence for Scotland, that's the main factor in deciding how I'll vote."

However, of those spoken to, support for the SNP was less pronounced than the engrained support for Labour.

One woman leaving the hall said: "I have been a traditional Labour supporter, and I was not going to vote this time round. But having seen the way the SNP have gone about it, I will be voting tomorrow and so will my friends – there's too much at risk."

Elizabeth Sanders was of similar mind: "I have always voted Labour. I have grandchildren and I have to think about the future I want for them."

One man was more blunt: "The SNP's policies are garbage. They won't do anything here. People will just keep voting Labour."

Above all, though, apathy ruled.

As one Mecca staff member said: "It's been really intense here, we've been bombarded. But it doesn't interest me and I'm still not going to vote.

"It's been the same with the people coming in to play. You speak to them and they're just not interested."