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It might not be a fashionable or popular view – but she's right



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Published Date: 09 May 2008
By Matt Qvortrup
IT IS not a popular view, but Wendy Alexander's U-turn is the right strategy. However, its execution has been less than impressive.
It is not fashionable to defend Wendy Alexander. And, in truth, the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland has not had an easy ride since she took over.

But credit where credit is due. Calling the SNP's bluff is not only a shrewd strategy, it is
also (potentially) one which can bring the Labour Party back to its former position.

This is why. To win a referendum on independence, you need a large majority in advance of the poll. With support for independence below 45 per cent now, it is almost impossible for the SNP to win a referendum. A poll would result in a defeat for the SNP's position. With such a result, the SNP would be on the back foot.

Their raison d'être is independence. Without this, their claim on government is void. By defeating the SNP in a referendum, Labour and the other unionist parties will be in a good position to return to power.

Of course, it is not clear if Ms Alexander considered all this. There is the impression she was making policy on the hoof. But that's what inspired politicians do. Winning requires risks.

Should she have consulted Gordon Brown? It might have been polite, but no more than that. Devolution means the Scottish Labour Party is independent of the party at Westminster.

Can she be criticised for her U-turn? Not at all. The history of referendums in the UK is the history of U-turns.

However, one criticism is valid. The execution of this policy leaves a lot to be desired. Mixed messages (especially from hapless Gordon Brown) have not made life easy for Ms Alexander and she herself has not been entirely clear. But the fact that Alex Salmond is calling for her resignation suggests the SNP's bluff has been called.



• Matt Qvortrup is a professor at the Robert Gordon University and author of the book A Comparative Study of Referendums.





The full article contains 358 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 08 May 2008 9:58 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
 
1

a proud doonhamer,

Dumfries 09/05/2008 01:58:25
Another so-called expert heard from! Was there not an awful lot of them who said that the SNP could never win the election?

Are these self-appointed oracles ever right?
2

Sierra Foothills Scot,

Diamond Springs 09/05/2008 02:09:24
Matt Qvortrup should know that Gordon Brown, not Wendy Alexander, is the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland. Wendy is not the leader of the Scottish MPs either. She is the leader of the Labour MSPs.
3

A Better Way,

Edinburgh 09/05/2008 02:53:05
I think the grass roots of New Labours supporters are in reality Nationalists. Perhaps Wendy has actually worked that out and wants Labour in Scotland to begin the transition into a party that wants to be around after Independance. Lets face it, there wont be any of the Westminster MP's moving up here and standing for election they are unelectable in Scotland after their treachery. There is little or no chance of any spots coming up for elected former MSP's to make the transition to Westminster.

The Scottish Parliament is going to be the main show, as far as any Scottish Politician is concerned. Better repositioning themselves soon, before Brown is thrown out and the English Labour MP's take over. If that is Wendy's ploy she and the Scottish Labour Party may actually survive Gordon Brown and his cabal of traitors, by working for an Independant Scotland.

Of course a Scottish Labour Party run by and for the Scottish People, would stand a better chance of being elected,after Independance than one that opposed the will of the Scottish People instead of supporting self determination.
4

catgut,

pomona 09/05/2008 03:12:14
What is the guy a professor off?

People are turninmg away from labour because the labour party has turned away from its core values.
Does he not think that if there was a left wing party in england that people would not be moving to it.

The snp are just filling gap in the political map.
How many of the snp voters support independence is a mute point.
I also suspect that many labour votes harbour a longing for independence somewhere in their bones.

the result of a strait yes/no question whould i think be closer that people may think. As there has always been a more left thinking population in scotland. which is not now being catered for by Uk parties.
5

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 09/05/2008 03:46:34
"By defeating the SNP in a referendum, Labour and the other unionist parties will be in a good position to return to power."

Perhaps Professor Qvortrup does not realize that to return to power they would have to form some sort of coalition.

After being hung out to dry by Wendy neither the LibDems or Tories would ever be willing to trust her again.
6

Traquir,

Alba 09/05/2008 04:06:39

"It might not be a fashionable or popular view – but she's right"

Should have been more fairly stated as

"It might not be a sane or rational view – but she's right"

Especially given

'One Labour MP says: "The general view is Wendy has probably gone mad." '

http://tinyurl.com/43xg7a
7

democracy,

Scottish Borders 09/05/2008 04:23:11
Matt Qvortrup claims "Their raison d'être is independence. Without this, their claim on government is void".
What kind of nonsense is this??

In a democracy, if a political party stands for election and is voted in,then that party will form the administration,regardless of their views on the constitution, so, Scotsman, where DO you find these clever people???
8

Richardinho,

09/05/2008 07:26:39
One of the things that has emerged this week is just how beholden to her Westminster masters the Labour leader is.
It is because the SNP will always be independent from London influences which will make them a strong force for years to come, whatever the result of a referendum, I'd suggest.
9

Jimmy the Pie,

09/05/2008 07:52:38
Another day - another self proclaimed expert!!

Where does the Hootsmoan get them???
10

Scotland to prosper...,

09/05/2008 08:18:06
Would it not only be fair for the Scotsman to now balance up their reporting by consulting an "expert" who believes Wendy's strategy to be wrong??
11

Michael,

09/05/2008 08:25:40
Political illiteracy of the highest order. What kind of institution is RGU that employs people with as little intellectual capacity as this?
12

gus1940,

Edinburgh 09/05/2008 08:40:23
Tut Tut - no Quote Marks
13

Alasdair,

09/05/2008 09:03:36
What a trite little article.
Matt Qvortrup - the fundamental, and indeed obvious to all but yourself and Wendy, flaw in your argument, is that:
1. the SNP don't have a bluff to call.
2. Wendy has no mandate to call a bluff anyway.

As far as point 1. goes, the SNP aren't kidding when they say they want a referendum. Thye do want one. If they don't pursue one, then it will be their own bluff they've called.

As far as point 2. goes, the SNP stood for election, and were voted in, on a manifesto that pledged a referendum in 2010. This isn't a matter for debate; it happened, and has given them the mandate to follow PRECISELY that course. Wendy has no leg to stand on here, and the fact that you've sought to fudge this issue smacks of nothing less than blatent biased apologism. You've not even done a good job of that.

I guees the Hootsmon's realised that they should have kept within their remit and tried to paint this last week as some sort of Labour victory, and are trying desperately to undo some of the harm their breif flirtation with honest reporting may have done.
How does it feel to be an on-call shill?
14

morris,

edinburgh 09/05/2008 09:09:08
If making a U turn is a sound strategy then Wendy will be the next First Minister.
She has done nothing BUT make U turns since she arrived.
The woman is completely out of her depth against Salmond and Sturgeon and she shows her incompetence voluntarily by being completely unaware of how stupid she looks.
She was roasted alive by Gordon Brewer also,and as for Ian Gray,the less said the better!

The Labour Party leader in Scotland does not agree with the Labour Party leader in Scotland (herself)never mind the Boss in London !

They are all over the place, which is maybe fitting since they will be ALL OVER soon!
After Cameron is elected, they KNOW the Scots will soon realise it was a choice between independence and a Tory Government.

Labour numpties did it again and voted UK and Tory.
Some Scots realise this now of course.
Labour activists realise this also, but cannot admit this publicly, and in so doing declare allegiance to their party, but to the detriment of Scotland and her people.
Pity, because its obvious to everybody apart from the village idiot who will still vote Labour.
15

morris,

edinburgh 09/05/2008 09:09:08
If making a U turn is a sound strategy then Wendy will be the next First Minister.
She has done nothing BUT make U turns since she arrived.
The woman is completely out of her depth against Salmond and Sturgeon and she shows her incompetence voluntarily by being completely unaware of how stupid she looks.
She was roasted alive by Gordon Brewer also,and as for Ian Gray,the less said the better!

The Labour Party leader in Scotland does not agree with the Labour Party leader in Scotland (herself)never mind the Boss in London !

They are all over the place, which is maybe fitting since they will be ALL OVER soon!
After Cameron is elected, they KNOW the Scots will soon realise it was a choice between independence and a Tory Government.

Labour numpties did it again and voted UK and Tory.
Some Scots realise this now of course.
Labour activists realise this also, but cannot admit this publicly, and in so doing declare allegiance to their party, but to the detriment of Scotland and her people.
Pity, because its obvious to everybody apart from the village idiot who will still vote Labour.
16

Rev. S. Campbell,

Bath 09/05/2008 09:09:21
"With support for independence below 45 per cent now,"

Pardon? Which polls have you been reading? The most recent poll on the yes/no question that both parties appear to support showed 41% for with 40% against, and 19% undecided. Since you can't put a tick in a box for "undecided", those don't count for anything, meaning that the best figures available for the status right now is 51.2% for independence and 48.8% against. 51 is not less than 45, Matt.

(I'd also be amazed if the events of the last week have done anything but increase the independence vote.)
17

The west awake,

Argyll 09/05/2008 09:42:06
Professor Claptrap is miles off target.
He seems to think IF a No vote transpires in a Yes/No referendum then Labour can simply take up from where they left off before this recent "incident" ocurred and return Scotland to the zombified managed decline of the past.

It's not like that. Salmond was on the money when he said "Scotland has changed, for good and for ever".
Even if there is a No vote, the struggle will go on, perhaps even fiercer than before. If not now - then later.
Maybe Labour in Scotland are seeing this for the first time and Yes, thinking the previously unthinkable, - a truly SCOTTISH Labour Party.

Now that they could "bring on"!
18

Rodster,

Glasgow 09/05/2008 10:05:06
What medication is the guy on?
why are so many unionist apologists so held in the past?
Times have changed the Unionist parties seem incapable of understanding this or reacting to it except in a very negative manner.
The truth is both Brown and alexander are out of their depth and are being found out .
Even today I bet you cannot get a straight answer from either .
The only strategy left for dither Bean is to control the referendum and more importantly the Question and rig the result .
If it is left to the SNP it is a guarantee we will be Independent .
in the words of that genius
BRING IT ON !
19

Miss H,

09/05/2008 10:19:41
A two year timescale is undoubtably extremely challenging but what the prof does not take into account is that the SNP is well up for it.
20

Very Rev Ian Paisley,

09/05/2008 10:35:52
Wendy is a law breaker who thought she was above the law and now she has visions of granduer - full stop.
21

Boy Wonder,

09/05/2008 10:37:56
Look Prof ... all we want to do is take the Union of Scotland, Wales, England and Norther Ireland ... and turn it into its four Qvortrs!
22

The Federalist (the poster formerly know as NAUON),

09/05/2008 10:44:19
The fisrt part of his analysis is correct - a defeat in a referendum would put the SNP on the back foot. However, I am not convinced byt the second part - that it will pave the way for the unionist parties to return to power.

One only has to look at the Quebec example to see that it total nonsense. What would happen (depending on the closeness of the result) is that the Scottish parliament will gain more powers - and they may well be used by an SNP administration.

The truth is that the status quo is dead. The SNP are going to win either way - either they achieve full independence or they continue on the gradualist path that Salmond has long argued for.
23

ochone,

Sauchie, Clack's 09/05/2008 10:44:37
As even most unionists accept that Wendy has made serious mistakes in this matter one way or another plus the fact that it is by no means the first she has made, her position has become untenable.

Well to most people, but as this is the Labour party we are on about, there is thankfully every chance she will remain, which can only be good for the SNP.
24

Queen D,

Glasgow 09/05/2008 10:58:14
Dear ,oh daer ,oh dear!
Where does this paper find them ?

First, as someone pointed out, there is no bluff to be called.
Labour are now in the position of having to back the SNP bill in 2010.
2010 is in their manifesto , this man should read it!
Proving themselves fit to be in government comes first, and so far, so good.
The SNP have not rambled on about indpendence ,they have just been getting on with the job.
Labour , has rambled on about independence and has'nt got on with the job.
Too busy dodging the busys!
25

Boggle fey the Bog,

09/05/2008 11:16:01
Queen D,Glasgow 09/05/2008 10:58:14

Spot On!!
26

Fraudulent and corrupt EU,

09/05/2008 11:39:02
Don't you think it's strange that Neo Labour formed the Ministry of Justice in 2007? It sounds like something from George Orwell's 1984. Furthermore, the Nazis had their Reich Ministry of Justice during the war.

Funny how a socialist like Herr Brown calls for Britishness etc. Surely this makes him a national socialist (Nazi)!
27

Fraudulent and corrupt EU,

09/05/2008 11:39:33
Wendy is a criminal!
28

Calum10,

09/05/2008 14:13:35
Re: "To win a referendum on independence, you need a large majority in advance of the poll. With support for independence below 45 per cent now, it is almost impossible for the SNP to win a referendum. A poll would result in a defeat for the SNP's position. With such a result, the SNP would be on the back foot."

BUT that is only one side of the same coin. It is equally true that support for the Union is also below 45 per cent. The poll in the Herald indicated that support for independence was at 41%, support for the union was 43%.

As % of votes cast on a 84% turnout would 49% for indepdence, 51% for the Union. You have to bear in mind that and 84% turnout would be on the high side. So which block vote is more likely to be robust if political popularity were to play the part?

The vote for the Union would be substantially weaker. A 5% switch/drop in the Unionist vote would mean the share of votes would result in 55% for independence, 45% for the Union. Under EU rules, as was the case for the Montenegro referendum, a 55% supermajority of votes cast in favour of independence with a minimum turnout of 50% would result in Scotland winning independence.
29

megz,

glasgow 09/05/2008 14:38:45
now call me crazy (i could be never know) but given the snp numbers in parliament i was resigned to the fact that a referendum would be unlikely to have been brought forward due to lack of support from the unionists.

Now according to the snp manifesto the plan had been for 2010. Why would they bring it forward just because wendy stamps her feet and says so? They had their plan and are going to stick to it so wendy isn't actually calling anyones bluff here really. All she has done is do the SNP a massive favour.

The manifesto pledges were really based on what they would do with a majority, and since they are in minority government and unlikely to fulfil that specific pledge, labour have given tham exactly what they need, a free pass to hold a referendum. So For once thanks wendy you've done something productive.
30

Richardinho,

09/05/2008 16:36:09
Wendy's reasons for an early referendum are wrong. She claims that the constitutional issue is creating uncertainty and harming business. There's very little sign of this that I can see. Business always faces uncertainty of all kinds of thing. I'd imagine most businesses are more worried about the threat of recession than the possibility of Scotland becoming independent.

Wendy is also wrong to imagine that a vote in a referendum against indpendence would kill the issue. I for one will continue to support and argue for independence regardless of the result. I expect many nationalists will.

Obviously I will accept the result-but I wont change my views.

Wendy however is not interested in a fair vote, she is interested in the short term gain of the Labour party. A 'fixed' referendum will not heal divisions or end uncertainty; it will enrage nationalists and cause even more bitterness. This is not a recipe for harmony.
31

Paula,

09/05/2008 17:41:13
This is definitely proof that the Scotsman are letting the work experience kids loose on the news.

Understatement of the year..."less than impressive."

If that is what you could call making a complete and utter fool of herself. Fun to watch her blathering away on tv and having every reporter get the upperhand without any effort.
32

Col. Blimp IV*,

09/05/2008 18:13:27
Laydees and Gentlemen...I give you...

...Proffessor Ma-att Qvortrup ####

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6RMGY9CWi8
33

Andrew BOD,

Aberdeenshire 09/05/2008 22:29:24
This article seems removed from reality somewhat, so I did a bit of fishing on the author.

Matt Qvortrup is a well respected professor, but he was also a graduate of Oxford University and former policy advisor to both Jack Straw and David Blunkett.

A New Labour stalwart in disguise.


34

Auckland Arab2,

09/05/2008 22:47:15
Professor of Loonar studies me thinks.

Fit like!
35

Wardog,

Buckie 10/05/2008 10:54:42

Oh dear, more skewed 'unfashionable'' reporting within the Scotsman's pages

Are we surprised?


 

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