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Has the Nationalists' bubble finally burst?



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Published Date: 13 November 2008
LINDSAY Roy has officially taken his seat in the House of Commons as the new Labour MP for Glenrothes just a week after his surprise by-election win.
And the result – an only-slightly reduced majority and an increased share of the vote – has given his party a morale boost at Westminster and a new lease of life at Holyrood.

After the devastating defeat in last year's Scottish Parliament election
s and 18 months of despondency, Labour has shown it can once again beat the SNP.

Nationalists are still trying to come to terms with their first major setback in power, telling themselves the honeymoon was never going to last forever, yet wondering how everything went wrong.

A Westminster career looked an unlikely prospect for Mr Roy, the former head of Gordon Brown's old school, Kirkcaldy High, when he was chosen as Labour's candidate for Glenrothes back in September.

After the SNP's storming success in Glasgow East, the assumption on all sides was Labour was set to lose another traditionally safe seat, heaping further humiliation on a beleaguered PM.

Labour chose November 6 as the date of the by-election hoping the aftermath of the US presidential elections two days earlier would drown out SNP crowing about another triumph.

Instead, Labour won and Barack Obama's historic election on the other side of the Atlantic made last Friday a bad day to bury good news.

Alex Salmond cleverly took the sting out of his opponents' attacks by immediately accepting the blame for the defeat.

He said he should have realised earlier the strength of feeling about home care charges, which had been increased by the SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition running Fife Council.

Labour says local income tax was also a significant issue in the by-election, while SNP activists add Labour's claims of education cuts. And in focussing on home care charges, Mr Salmond seems to forget he had put soaring fuel prices at the heart of the campaign, repeatedly declaring that gas and electricity bills thudding on to people's doormats were "the most important leaflets in the election".

If they were, it seems they did not prompt voters to back the SNP.

Of course, it's not for politicians to dictate the issues that people consider in deciding how to vote.

And it is likely that just as the Glasgow East result reflected what was then a widespread disillusionment with Gordon Brown and the UK Government, so Glenrothes showed that amid the global financial crisis, the Prime Minister is seen as a safe pair of hands.

The SNP may also finally be discovering the downside of being in power. The party's failure to win the city council by-election in the Forth ward on the same night was also a disappointment. But with the Nationalists in coalition in both Edinburgh and Fife councils, they have to take responsibility for decisions made.

A senior SNP source admits: "When you are in government and in control of local authorities, you cannot blame the opposition."

But despite the result – and for a government which has been under such sustained attack to maintain a majority of nearly 7000 is remarkable – there is a noticeable absence of triumphalism from Labour. It could be that too much celebration is not appropriate in such bad economic times, but it could also reflect a sober realisation the party still has a lot of work to do.

A Labour insider says: "There is not the elation you might expect. Everyone is being quite measured. It's as if we've had life breathed back into us. The feeling is 'We're back in the game, we need to get stuck into it'. There's an optimism, but it's a very focused optimism.

"Glenrothes has given Labour a breathing space, an opportunity to nail the strategy for the next six, 12 or 18 months."

This insider argues the party is already showing a more constructive approach to opposition, as seen in yesterday's joint call for action with the Greens, Lib Dems and independent Margo MacDonald over repossessions.

"Iain Gray has adopted a more consensual style, doing the groundwork and getting other parties on board. The way we handled the repossession issue was very different from the way we would have done it before."

Labour must not allow itself to think Glenrothes means Scotland has returned to pre-2007 politics where the party can take voters for granted. The chief lesson of last year's Holyrood results was that such arrogance will not be tolerated.

The apparently close fight for Glenrothes between Labour and the SNP meant the Tories and Lib Dems were always going to be squeezed, but they could not have expected to be reduced to the tiny levels of support they received.

For them, this is a by-election to forget as quickly as possible.

And the SNP will probably want to forget it too. After Glasgow East, projections had the party winning 32 Westminster seats at the next general election – well over Mr Salmond's target of 20. But if the five per cent Glenrothes swing were replicated across the country, the Nationalists could expect to elect just two extra MPs.





The full article contains 862 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 13 November 2008 9:47 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Ian Swanson
 
1

Miss H,

13/11/2008 10:13:23
I love the idea of nationalists sitting about asking each other 'where did it all go wrong?'. Fair description of Friday 7 November but since then we have been to bed, got back up again and generally got on with things.

Never thought we would win 37 seats but will certainly win more than two. Glenrothes will probably be one of them.
2

,

13/11/2008 10:18:06
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
3

,

13/11/2008 10:20:53
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
4

JohnMcDonald,

London 13/11/2008 10:36:14
Margo MacDonald was predicting that Labour wouldn't lose Glenrothes. She was right and everyone else was wrong. Well, thirty odd years in politics will have given her some sort of insight.

And while Alex Salmond and his team might be expected to play up their chances, the real questions have to be asked of a Labour campaign that had virtually given up on winning the seat.

The Labour Party is finished, it's just that their voters don't yet know it!
5

Esox Hunter,

Edinburgh 13/11/2008 11:14:47
#4 Far from the labour campaign giving up, its probably more that while the SNP were scurrying around like ants Labour were quietly winning the higher level battle, plus Labours real asset as it turned out, the self proclaiming embarassment which is Alex Salmond drove away voters by the thousand. Jim Sillars got it spot on regading Salmond now becoming a liability for the SNP and long may it continue
6

Skip McClendon,

13/11/2008 11:45:35
Joe-kerr

"No just the proof in the pudding that Labour supporters are a bit like sheep."

- How so? Given that the SNP won what is essentially the same seat at Holyrood, how can you claim that the voters are 'Labour sheep'. They voted for the SNP in the Holyrood and council elections, but were clearly unimpressed with the result.

"I bet Glenrothes is regretting the decision now that Virgin ae shutting their call centre. You can bet Labour knew it was in the offing."

- Are you seriously claiming that, had the voters elected an SNP MP, that the Virgin call centre would remain open? Plus, what have the SNP MSP and SNP-led Council done to save it?
7

Skip McClendon,

13/11/2008 11:48:55
#5

Very true. Doesn't really say much for the powers of persuasion of the great leader, does it? Visited the constituency over a dozen times during the campaign, and still couldn't convince the alleged (by some SNP bloggers) uneducated "sheep" to vote for him.
8

Alternative (High-Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 13/11/2008 11:55:01
I really don't think that there's a great deal of difference between stupid labour and the SNP where prevalence of stupid ideas are concerned. Really and honestly, Tory is the only way to vote nowadays.
9

Voice of reason,

EDINBURGH 13/11/2008 12:22:09
8 - well said . Only the Tories can rescue Britain . Pity the Scots are too stupid to elect many .
10

Alan B,

13/11/2008 12:26:05
#Alternative

Why vote tory? While they have a good leader (far better than any of the dumblings from labour) they have not got much of a vision. They strike me as more a party in scotland as decent managers.

What is the tory vision fro the most important area the economy?

As far as i can see none. Compared to the snp the scottish tories look lightweight in economic terms.

I am not trying to make a party political point but they need to find and msp to manage their economic vision. What are their policies? A tory guy was on tv yeasterday saying their was nothing much the sp could do as the econommic tools were not devolved. Exactly. As such the economic vision and policies by the scottish tories is not there.

They should combine 2 things. An economic vision with a vision for the constitution. That screams fiscal autonomy. With fiscal autonomy among afew other things they would sort out the mess of devolution. And could advocate a low corporation tax eg like the 20% proposed by the snp. They could give a vision for the union that people could actually buy into.

I personally want one thing overwhelming from a political party. One that can have policies to rectify scotlands slow economic growth.

I just do not believe the tories in london will do anythign for scotland economically bar maybe not making the complete shambles of the uk economy the way brown has.

As such it is up to the scottihs tories to have enough economic tools devolved and then having a vision and policies in place that are convincing.

Having a good leader in Goldie and msp who seem very more intelligent than the labour morons is simply not enough.
11

Alan B,

13/11/2008 12:27:46
should clarify i am talking about the scottish tories in holyrood. Think Camerons shower are pretty poor. Osbourne does not inspire.
12

Alan B,

13/11/2008 12:33:25
#9 Voice of reason

Rather than just slagging people as stupid can you justify why the tories would be good. Given brown the clown arguing they are better than laobur is not really arguing about much.

I am simply not convinced that the tories would have avoided the same economic strategy of Brown by building an economy on personal debt. Yes they would have been abit better on public debt. But without Browns change in the mpc for interest rates they would have been worse for monetary policy.

Have to say Osbourne does not inspire.

If i was going to vote for a unionist party now i would have to vote lib dem, particularly now that they have uturned on their high tax position.

They were long standing supporters of independence of BOE. Vince Cable is more convincing than Osbourne or Brown. They do not have the little england mentality of the tories with their anti eu baggage. And support the euro which would be far better for the scottish economy than sterling. They are also better consitutionally. I believe getting the structure right will produce better results.
13

Spathiphyllum,

13/11/2008 12:43:07
Bubble? They had a bubble? Cool!
14

Spathiphyllum,

13/11/2008 12:43:26
Bubble? They had a bubble? Cool!
15

Spathiphyllum,

13/11/2008 12:43:27
Bubble? They had a bubble? Cool!
16

Spathiphyllum,

13/11/2008 12:43:59
Sorry. Server playing tricks.
17

R_K_C,

13/11/2008 12:52:46
Also likely the voters have realised that the SNP's "arc of prosperity" arguement had been exposed for the nonsense that it always was.

Note to the SNP leadership - with Iceland bankrupt, Ireland in recession and oil at $55 a barrel, now would be a good time to update your website with some fresh ideas. This time, instead of just likening us in visionary language to other small European Nations, and implying that our lives would somehow be changed just by virtue of "sitting at the top table" as you put it, please actually list concrete actions you would take to make Scotland a better place, and how you propose to fund these actions.

No doubt this comment will be shot down by usual Nationalist die-hards as some sort of treason, but really, anyone with any sense that was not blinded by Nationalistic fervour could see that the economic vision put forward by the SNP lacked any substance.
18

Gorgie_Tony,

Edinburgh 13/11/2008 12:53:07
Another nail in the coffin for Salmond and co. People are just starting to realise how they were conned into voting for them - I certainly wasn't - I saw right through Salmond's lies. Roll on the next election and it will be cheerio Alex!!
19

Jay Kay,

13/11/2008 13:02:33
Well ive got a message for ROY and BROON, read this, 300 services personel killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. That's 300 famillies who have lost brave souls to protect you Broon. You are an utter disgrace to the UK for allowing this to continue, guttless fat pig of a man, you should be made to apologise to each and every member of every familly in the services who has lost a loved one in YOUR illegal war.

And take it from me Im ex-forces every one of these women and men are a damned sight braver than you will ever be you sad pathetic excuse for a human being.

IF you had any b*lls at all you would donate half your wage to helping these famillies, how many more service women and men are going to die i nthis atrocity and for what? honestly what are we trying to save here?.

You are pathetic and so are NULIEBORE your all a bunch of crooks.
20

Megan H,

13/11/2008 13:04:37
Time will tell. I think the SNP vote will increase next election and wouldn't be surprised if Glenrothes went SNP. The recession is just starting to bite and by the next election people will know that the blame for the "Boom and Burst" lies firmly at the doorstep of messrs Brown and Darling.
21

Spathiphyllum,

13/11/2008 13:13:02
What's the point of voting anyway? No matter who you vote for, they all get in. And, there's no difference between them. They're all self serving career fraudsters.
22

steve 1511,

aberdeen 13/11/2008 13:15:49
a vote for labour is a vote for
unemployment
a bankrupt country
poverty on the rise
rip off banks
rip off energy companies
rip off oil companies
a party rife with sleaze and corruption at every level,any one seen peter hains,100k of donations
100k to lose their homes
the pound at it lowest ever against the euro
the pound has lost 25% of it value against the dollar in the last 12 months
the list is endless
WE ARE DOOMED WITH BROON ,DOOMED
it is that bad even the eu immigrants are fleeing the country.i hope broon joins them
23

Spathiphyllum,

13/11/2008 13:23:38
steve 1511,aberdeen 13/11/2008 13:15:49 :

a vote for any political party is a vote for
unemployment
a bankrupt country
poverty on the rise
rip off banks
rip off energy companies
rip off oil companies
a party rife with sleaze and corruption at every level,any one seen peter hains,100k of donations
100k to lose their homes
the pound at it lowest ever against the euro
the pound has lost 25% of it value against the dollar in the last 12 months
the list is endless
WE ARE DOOMED WITH BROON ,DOOMED
it is that bad even the eu immigrants are fleeing the country.i hope broon joins them
24

Alternative (High-Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 13/11/2008 13:31:15
AlanB:

Thanks for the constructive comment. I was expecting the usual brain-dead crucifixion for that one!

I appreciate that most of the economic tools are devolved and as such support the Tories in the Westminster government of the future. The main thing that comes to mind regarding scottish politics is the fact that stupid labour have used their powers to simply restrict our freedoms, presumably because they can, rather than to do any good.

Lets face it, what have stupid labour got to show for their terms in office---other than a hunting ban and a smoking ban? Not much really eh? Every indication points to the fact that the SNP are out to do more of the same---take MacAskill's anti-drink stance for starters. Oh and not to forget their jewel in the crown---scrapping a £1 bridge toll.

It is such a great pity because even with the powers that are available to them they could have done so much more to make Scotland happier, more propsperous and generally a better place to be.

One of the reasons I support Scottish Tories is that they are proposing no restrictive or token measures whatsoever. Their leaders are also far better negotiators than Salmond or Iain Gray will ever be---and that is what Scotland needs. We need negotiators who are competent in dealing with Westminster in order to get the best for Scotland.
25

lulach mac gille coemgain,

13/11/2008 13:45:20
Aye - these Glenrothes yins knew they woold be on the dole soon enuff and bargained on Labour - party of the doley subsidisers dishin’ oot the handoots - Keep the thick - thick - that’s the Labour way !
26

Digby Hepplethwaite,

13/11/2008 14:43:44
#5 to 19, 17, 18, 24

Well, like you, I think this is great. After all, we were getting a bit ahead of ourselves with this "nationalism" nonsense...at least now, once more, we know our place.

Thank God England is there to protect us from ourselves. And three cheers for Peter Mandelson!!! Altogether now: "Rule, Britannia, Britannia Rules The Waves..."

Etc, etc.
27

Billy Effluvia,

13/11/2008 15:24:34
A vote for the SNP is a vote for Scottish nationalism.

Just remember that.
28

,

13/11/2008 15:32:38
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
29

Calum10,

13/11/2008 15:48:00
300 jobs to go at the Virgin Call Centre at Glenrothes is some Union Dividend.

It really does show up the stupidity of voting Labour.

30

Alan B,

13/11/2008 16:11:13
#Alternative

I understand that the issues round personal freedoms are important to you.

For me it is the economy. I just find it abit bizzare that the tories who were traditionally stronger on the economy seem light weight (both up here and down south).

If you look back to the 80s under Thatcher there was an economic vision. You may agree with it or not. In Scotland the tories in the late 80s came up with an economic strategy deviced by the ex head of the scottish CBI Bill Hughes if I remember correctly. Whether it was a good strategy or not in retrospect at least it was an economic plan.

At the moment despite Goldie coming across well she does not come across as someone who is particularly business focused. As such I think the Scottish tories need someone who can give people who support a low tax economy a vision that can encourage people to vote for them.

The lib dems have grasped the nettle and are advocating a 2p drop in income tax. I personally think that is the wrong way to go as it would be bettter to target tax cuts (long term i am not talking about getting out this current mess), at corporation tax or other areas to business investment.

I would have to say Jim Mather of the snp is one that impresses me most. We in Scotland need to really take serious economic growth and wealth creation.

The snp set up a economic panel. The tories should have some economic business group to come up with a strategic plan for devising an economic and business plan.

Of all the economic ministers it is Vince Cable that has come to the fore. Again his advice may be right or not but he is one of the view articulating a positive vision.

31

Skip McClendon,

13/11/2008 16:52:56
#28

Nice try, but I'm not in the Labour party nor do I vote for them.
32

Skip McClendon,

13/11/2008 17:06:54
#28

And you still haven't explained how these alleged Labour "sheep" voted SNP at both the Holyrood and Local Authority elections?
33

subrosa,

13/11/2008 17:11:16
# 32

Holyrood and LA elections were won by the SNP because the tories and libdems voted along party lines. They didn't for the Glenrothes by-election when they voted labour.
34

Skip McClendon,

13/11/2008 17:17:51
#33

Well, that still hardly makes the electorate Labour sheep then, does it?

If the SNP want to win, they need to convince more traditonal non-SNP voters to support them. Clearly, in this case, they failed to do that.

But to write off the result as the result of Labour "sheep" is just wrong.
35

57vintage,

14/11/2008 09:30:19
#8 "Tory is the only way to vote nowadays"

You were doing well up until then!

#33 "Holyrood and LA elections were won by the SNP because the tories and libdems voted along party lines. They didn't for the Glenrothes by-election when they voted labour"

Then you'll need to perform some arithmetical sleight of hand to equate the Tory/Libs loss of an aggregate 13% and the SNP's much-vaunted (spin in defeat, obviously) 10% increase, compared to Roy's 3% increase.

I don't think there's been a bubble and I think that the SNP vote will hold up in the near future.
36

New Town Resident,

14/11/2008 11:38:20
~1. Miss H. Off topic but promised a couple of days ago to get back to you on the nuclear replacement polls.

The HoC committee proceedings papaers on Trident replacement reference BBC Politics poll dated June 28th 2006 which shows 60% of Scots favoured a retention of the UK nuclear deterrent "while other countries still have one". It really depends on the question you ask. In the same poll Scots then go on to reject Trident replacement when told it costs a packet (as do the English)!

My point was simply that I don't buy your argument that Scots opinion on this issue is radically different to the rest of the UK. The results in this poll show hardly any regional differences(England is broken out into regions). You will find similar in Scots attitude to EU if you look at the Open Europe polling, which is the only one which gives regional breakdowns on EU polling. Scots come up with almost identical answers to the English to the SAME questions.



 

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