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Economists condemn proposed reforms as 'recipe for instability'

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Published Date: 17 June 2009
THE financial reforms proposed by the Calman Commission have been condemned by a group of leading economists.
In an article for The Scotsman today, eight internationally renowned economists call proposals for limited tax reform "at best an opportunity missed and at worst a recipe for economic instability in the future".

They attack the proposals, which i
nclude giving Holyrood limited borrowing powers along with control of almost half the income tax raised in Scotland and several smaller taxes including stamp duty.

These tax powers would give the Scottish Parliament control over £9 billion of the £31bn Scottish budget, but the economists say this is not nearly enough.

They are highly critical of the Calman Commission's expert group of economists, led by Professor Anton Muscatelli.

And they accuse Calman of "side-stepping" the real solution of fiscal autonomy.

They added: "We believe this to be a fundamental mistake.

" Only under fiscal autonomy can the accountability of the Scottish Parliament properly be entrenched, and it is surprising that there seems to have been very little consideration of this option by the independent expert group advising the commission."

They said the proposals could leave Scotland short of money without the ability to properly cope with a revenue short- fall.

"It is unclear if sufficient borrowing powers are built into the Calman proposal to facilitate any shortfall in revenue," they note.

They also point out that there was room for confusion because "receipts from income tax cannot be forecast reliably in advance and public accounts data often are being reviewed two or more years later".

They note a "lack of detail" in the proposals, but acknowledge that the commission, chaired by the Chancellor of Glasgow University, Sir Kenneth Calman, did not have a proper remit to consider fiscal autonomy.

The eight include two professors from Sir Kenneth's university – Ronald MacDonald and Farhad Noorbakhsh. Another signatory is one of First Minister Alex Salmond's council of economic advisers – Andrew Hughes Hallett, of George Mason University in Washington DC.

The others are professors Drew Scott of Edinburgh University; Paul Hallwood of University of Connecticut; Neil Kay and Rod Cross of Strathclyde University, and David Simpson, former economic adviser to Standard Life.





Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 16 June 2009 10:09 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
 
1

Nevsky;,

Moscow 16/06/2009 22:59:04
Interesting how many academics are now pinning their colours to the mast and backing the only really credible solution for Scotland.

Full fiscal autonomy and full fiscal accountability! Twenty years ago you would have been hard pressed to find anyone who would propose such an idea...something tells me that that the union is in terminal decline!
2

Nevsky;,

Moscow 16/06/2009 23:26:01
2 Rufus*


Link re banks for you in case you missed it!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7666274.stm

Ireland still has ALL of it's banks i believe and still have the HQs in Dublin while on the other hand Scotland has lost all of it's banks to London?

Ignoramus? I believe you were the one who thought that Chernobyl was in Russia?
3

frank mcbride,

lusitania 17/06/2009 00:45:49
#2, Multiple personality Unionist.

I await, all agog, for your Arthur Midwinter rebuttal in tomorrow's "Scotsman".

A blind man running for a bus can see that the Calman Report is a dog's breakfast.
4

Edward,

17/06/2009 01:16:53
It really must be ALL and not this patchwork by committee of lunatic inmates
Independence and Scotland to keep ALL its taxes and revenues
5

Am Fògarrach,

17/06/2009 01:54:43
#2 sm753 -

Not having much luck trying to divert the thread from the subject, are you?

Instead of making an ad hominem attack on Nevsky. why don't you try to intelligently refute the findings of the economists?

Got it yet?
6

Brianwci,

17/06/2009 02:02:34
As the arguments are rolled out over the coming weeks it will become clear to the people of Scotland that Full Fiscal Autonomy is an absolute minimum requirement for the future better Government of Scotland.

Calman is a fudge from start to finish. Caught in the glare of its spotlight Westminster politicians and civil servants, eyes squinting in the glare, in a huddle working out how much or how little they can get away with to keep the Scots happy.

Don't bother guys, we'll do it ourselves.
7

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 17/06/2009 05:09:46
In all fairness to Professor Muscatelli, it would have been difficult for him to maintain his position as a paid consultant to the Treasury if he had actually looked at all the options.

To quote Upton Sinclair:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it."

That said it is interesting that independent economists are rounding on these inadequate fiscal powers as a group. I think the Government will find it difficult to find any professional economists who will defend these recommendations as being anywhere close to adequate.

A couple of points about the reports by the Independent Expert Groups reports:

When they looked at how other Countries share Oil revenue the included only countries where a large portion of the revenue is claimed by the Central Government and purposely excluded countries where Natural Resources revenue went mainly to regional Governments, Canada being the best example.

On the paper on borrowing powers, they did actually praise the system in Canada which allows the Provinces to raise money by issuing Bonds with no limits set or guarantees offered by the Federal Government. Why did the final report not chose this option that works very efficiently because the market itself enforces fiscal discipline on the provinces?
8

For Scotlands Future,

Vote for the SNP 17/06/2009 06:39:39
"They said the proposals could leave Scotland short of money without the ability to properly cope with a revenue short- fall"

But that is the whole reason for Calman. It was never an exercise in democracy or how best to use Holyrood. It's conceived out of desperation, It was birthed out of hatred, and it's first breath was out of spite.
9

JaF,

17/06/2009 07:34:00
Do I believe the eight internationally renowned economists who called the proposals ............and at worst a recipe for economic instability in the future
or these the elected representatives who give the impression that they know a great deal about economics to support the Calman Commission report ?
Annabel Goldie, MSP Scottish Tory leader
Travish .......MSP what is his name ?
Iain Gray MSP, Leader of Labour in the Scottish Parliament
Jim Murphy MP,Scottish Secretary
10

gus1940,

Edinburgh 17/06/2009 07:34:23
#9

Got it in 1.
11

mr broon,

Edinburgh 17/06/2009 07:45:46
This group of economists would appear to know their stuff?

However, ALL the Scots Unionist parties, including the Conservatives, appear to be in full agreement with Calman's proposals?

Yet, last night in an interview on TV, the last Tory Secretary of State for Scotland strongly disagreed, and cautioned the Unionists parties against involvement.

He stated that the Scots Tories, and all the Unionist parties, should have nothing to do with Calman as it will lead to separatism?

This is choice coming from the man who, in 1997, led the Scots Tories to the edge of political extinction, and after being kicked out took no further part in Scottish Politics?

Taking advice from Lord Forsyth on this question must be like taking flying lessons from a failed Kamikaze pilot!
12

Andrew Morton,

Berkshire 17/06/2009 07:52:17
So which is it? The Calman report is the bees knees or well known well researched academics and economists are right?
13

TWC,

exLabour 17/06/2009 08:11:51
2 Hagbard Celine,

With Fiscal Autonomy we would only pass on England's share retrospectively, so it is not a problem for Scotland. Similarly with all Revenues.
Without doubt Fiscal Autonomy is the only sane answer.

I cannot understand the Unionist position on this especially the SLAB & Libdems.
14

Auld Twa,

Edinburgh 17/06/2009 09:47:45
"They said the proposals could leave Scotland short of money without the ability to properly cope with a revenue shortfall."
Maybe we missed something but ever since it was made clear that federalism and independence were not being considered, we have been of the opinion that this was whole objective of the Calman Commission.
15

Marian,

17/06/2009 09:48:26
No surprises then.

The Calman proposals were designed by an unholy alliance of unelected unionists whose remit from Gordon Brown appears to have been to come up with something that could screw up not only the independence aspirations for Scotland, but also further screw up the devolved financial arrangements that Scots already live under.

Consequently you would have to look far and wide to find another method that could screw up those arrangements as much than these half-baked proposals put forward by Calman.
16

donald,

glasgow 17/06/2009 10:05:28
At least economist agree on something. Problem is do they understand whether the 10p comes aff the beginning, end or somewhere in the middle of oor poacket money? Not excatly the Wealth of Nations classic, is it? The Scotland is not the nation of the Calmanites. Is it?
17

Alan B,

17/06/2009 10:15:40
Calams tax proposals are a politcal fudge and nothing to do with economics.

So no surprise economists have slated it.
18

Neal! Whit? Haud yer Whisht!!,

17/06/2009 10:31:35
To:

Frank McBride - Lusitania
The Displaced Glaswegian
et al

Thank-you very much for answering my query yesterday over on the 'Calman Confounds Critics' story. They were well-written and informative.

I agree that the Government View of this Land of ours is indeed London-Centric and is not just injurious to Scotland. When you look at some of the extreme edges of England you can see which areas lie furthest from Government Thinking. Especially the Ex-Industrial heartlands, now that they're no longer of benefit to the country . . . .

As for the SNP manifesto, I doubt very much whether our local Library will have a copy. The events of the Scottish Parliament are very rarely reported in this neck of the woods - Kent, possibly 5 - 10 items per year AT MOST and that's being generous.

Do you think then that, Post-Independence (2010/11/12), the SNP having done the Deed the Scottish Electorate will return to their old voting habits i.e Lib Dem & Labour?

Finally, I Apologise Unreservedly for any smear, perceived or actual, that I may have posted in my trying to 'rattle the cage. It was not my intent to cause offence and I am sorry that it took semi-abuse to get information which, as I state, is generally unavailable here - I will check our Library and peruse it if possible.

Thank-you once again,

Neal
19

Farky,

Edinburgh 17/06/2009 10:52:12
You don't really need to be a financial expert or a professor of anything, to realise that the proposals for tax, are simply a big fudge. So limited, so pointless, so USELESS! A poisoned chalice for Holyrood!

Calman delivered what Westmintser wanted. Poor show "Sir" Kenneth.

It highlights the obvious though. If the people of Scotland want real change to make their country better, fairer place, and have it PROPERLY represented, they must vote for the only party that CAN deliver that change. That is the SNP!
20

langtonian,

uphall 17/06/2009 12:22:36
Calman will appeal to the basic voter, the next election will confirm, when it comes down to a General Election,as at Glenrothes where a supposedly "home and dry" SNP party dumped,despite good polls.

The mixter maxter of assorted international financial "experts" listed above will not have the voters trust- Calman will
21

European Scot,

17/06/2009 12:58:41
21 langtonian

"... when it comes down to a General Election,as at Glenrothes where a supposedly "home and dry" SNP party dumped,despite good polls."

Talking of dumped, did they ever find those electoral papers that went missing ?
People will trust Calman as much as they trust New Labour.
22

IainGlasgow,

17/06/2009 14:31:42
Fiscal Federalism will never be implemented. Three reasons.

1. The unionist parties have neither the desire to implement it.

2. The SNP (and most unionists) see it as astepping stone to independence

3. If independence fails to win enough referendum support the SNP will, as a temporary solution, probably adopt federalism, with pretty much only defence and foreign policy being reserved to Westminster. The Lib Dems will probably hop on the bandwagon with them and hold a referendum on Federalism in the second half of the next term of the Scottish Parliment. Chances are this would gain well over 60% support in Scotland but the flaw is that creation of a federal system would also require backing south of the border. Even if the UK government decides to act and hold a UK-wide referendum on Federalism it is probable that people in England would just vote to force independence.
23

Iainbroch,

17/06/2009 14:33:19
re21

Trust Calman - how much did they pay you to say that or did it just come natural. Nobody with half a brain would trust Calman.
24

steve52,

Kinfauns 17/06/2009 14:37:17
#21.. For your information the SNP were doing well in Glenrothes until that liar Gordon Brown poped u on the scene....He informed voters that if energy companies did not cut their prices then he would take legal action. Mr Brown has thus far not replied to my correspondence asking when this will take place. Ian Grey also refused to respond referring my emails to Labour party HQ. The new MP Mr Roy promised to get back to me but never did. From reading his emails I am worried that such an idiot could ever become a headteacher.

The big problem for Scotland is that the vast majority of Labour voters will believe exactly what they are told. This is evident from the support amongst Labour voters for Gordon Brown. The man is an out and out liar but still these voters think he is the bees knees.

My point being, and I am not being insulting here, that most Labour voters are uneducated especially in the ways of politics. As has been stated many times Labour could put a monkey up for election and it would win.

These economists have given an insight, as if one were required, into the unionist parties seeking only to benifit themselves and caring nothing about the people of Scotland.

When I look at what is going on in Iran, what the people demonstrating for democracy are having to endure ( even being shot) I am saddened that the people of Scotland wont get off their fat a*ses, out of the pub and vote for their country and what is best for it.
25

langtonian,

uphall 17/06/2009 15:34:29
22 european scot),typical SNP comment,Innuendo, half truths,face the facts,reality sucks with the SNP.

23Iain Glasgow)Too many if's but's and may-be's.
A referendum is a non starter.the only proper way to elect any Govnerment is by a full blown General Election.Apart from the extra expense,the lack of organisational time available, it's purely an SNP smoke screen to hide their manifesto inadequateness
26

frank mcbride,

lusitania 17/06/2009 15:47:50
#26, langtonian.

Are you stating that, all the people of Scotland have to do to claim Independence is to win the Majority of Scottish seats at a GE?

Or alternatively, the Majority of seats at a Scottish GE?
27

Alec M,

Falkirk 17/06/2009 16:37:38
#25 - Steve52 - Your references to the Hon. Member for Glenrothes prompted me to go to

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/

and compare his contribution to the political debate with that Of John Mason, Glasgow East, his contemporary in terms of Commons membership.

Check the "numerology" section for each - and spot the difference!

I do not know what it says about me, but I like to watch the BBC Parliament channel of an afternoon; Mason is a frequent attender and partaker in debates. Mr Roy's attendance is, I suggest, as rare as the spotting of a four-leaved clover!
28

langtonian,

uphall 17/06/2009 17:20:55
27)frank mcbride
Neither.

So i'll just take it as yes that both of these options are "tooth fary" hopefull wishfull thinking on your part.

Dinna greet when Neither occurence ocurs
29

TWC,

exLabour 17/06/2009 17:23:30
21 langtonian,

Not any more most of my old pals now vote SNP even though they are not fussy about Independence, most of us would accept independence rather that continue with Westminster control on the finances and no Labour policies in Scotland.
30

Miss H,

17/06/2009 17:48:45
That’s exactly right.

It would, I think, have been possible to sit down and draw up a set of proposals which would allow Scotland the greatest possible economic freedom to prosper while remaining in the Union.

But the Calman Report is nothing like that.

It is a total fudge and completely politically motivated.

Essentially they have 1. picked out some things the SNP has been demanding control over, such as powers over air rifles etc, and said OK have them and 2, they have decided quite arbitrarily to give the Scottish Parliament control over a set amount of income tax, which is utterly utterly pointless.

All it does is demonstrate to voters quite conclusively that the only way Scotland makes progress is with the SNP – and the only way we will ever be in a position to manage our own economy is with independence.
31

Miss H,

17/06/2009 17:52:39
21 Utter nonsense. The basic voter understands perfectly well that the only reason there is a Calman Report is because Scotland voted SNP.

Voting SNP delivers results and progress, voting Labour = stagnation.

It's a very simple argument which also has the virtue of being true.
32

langtonian,

uphall 17/06/2009 17:54:00
25)steve kinfauns
>It comes as no surprise to read you'r e-mails were binned,the scurillouse tone of the first paragraph explains a lot.
>The even more Scurillouse mk2 comments re, Labour party voters wold qulify you for any vacancy in Goebeles ideaology of how to control the media(thank goodness he has departed the world)however with remarks such as your's the ideaology has not been completley eradicated-loosen up!

>

 

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