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Budget analysis: Big question is: Why did the Lib Dems change their tune?

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Published Date: 30 January 2009
THERE was only one question being asked in the corridors of Holyrood yesterday – why on earth had the Liberal Democrats done it?
Why had the party, which had adhered to its principle of a 2p cut in income tax throughout the process, suddenly thrown it all away to offer the SNP its support in getting the Budget through? In short, why had it ditched its principles?

One oppos
ition MSP offered a succinct response: "Because they are Liberal Democrats: it's what they do."

That may be a slightly unkind view of the Liberal Democrat position, but it is easy to see why some MSPs might jump to the same conclusion, as it is difficult to pinpoint concrete reasons for the switch.

Senior Liberal Democrats explained their change of heart by arguing they had put forward their proposals for a cut in income tax, and the parliament had rejected that idea so they were now moving on.

They also claimed that what they wanted was a major change in the way the Scottish Government coped with the recession and that was more important than the principle of the 2p cut.

However, that does not really stack up. If it was really the case, the Liberal Democrats would have backed down on their 2p income tax cut after it was clear it commanded no support in parliament, maybe even as early as after the initial stage-one vote on the Budget.

But they did not; they carried right through and caused the defeat of the Budget bill on Wednesday night purely on a point of principle, even though they knew the parliament did not support their tax plans.

What seems to have happened here is that the defeat of the Budget, and the last-minute concessions which the two Green MSPs were able to wrest from the Scottish Government, showed that there was more to be gained from being conciliatory than there was in being oppositionist.

The Liberal Democrats had three aims: influence over the Budget; have something concrete to parade as an achievement; and to distance themselves from Labour.

By co-operating with the SNP, they were preparing to achieve all three. That explains the extraordinarily weak central part of their demands. It is understood that the Liberal Democrats want Alex Salmond to write to both the UK government and the Calman Commission, asking for borrowing powers. As this is something Mr Salmond wants to secure for Scotland, it should not be a problem.

The only little bit of politics here is that the Scottish Government has been dismissive of the Calman Commission and, by writing and submitting evidence on borrowing powers, Mr Salmond will be giving the commission a legitimacy he never wanted to bestow upon it.

But if that is all he has to do, he may as well accept the Liberal Democrat demands, be glad they are so straight- forward, and get his Budget approved.



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1

,

30/01/2009 00:26:45
Comment Removed By Administrator
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2

subrosa,

30/01/2009 00:35:47
I wouldn't trust the libdems. If they can turn so quickly now they can do again when it suits them and not Scotland.
3

Mercutio,

FALKIRK 30/01/2009 00:57:13
#2 Maybe a bit more of politicians changing their minds is no bad thing.
4

Wardog™,

30/01/2009 01:27:20
Could this be the start of the Lib Dems looking for a way out of Calman and of using their own Steel Commission and further research into Federalism to engage with the National Conversation and a U-Turn on using a REFERENDUM to decide on Scotland's future?

A Three Question Referendum?


I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state.

I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes a fiscally autonomous part of the United Kingdom.

I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate any further settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state or fiscally autonomous.
5

frank mcbride,

lusitania 30/01/2009 02:14:36
WHAT A GLORIOUS PIECE OF SPIN.

Hamish MacDonnell, yet again, trying to do NuLabTory's dirty work!!!

Accuse the LibDums of doing a U-turn and deflect the flack from NuLabTory for doing,exactly, the same thing!!!

Pitiful, but predictible.
6

Dark Lochnagar,

Symington 30/01/2009 02:44:51
There shouldn't be a choice of federalism or independence. It should be status quo or independence. They backed down because AS quite plainly told them that unemployment would be higher under their policy of cutting 2P off tax. In other words they hadn't thought it out properly. Nothing new there then.
7

frank mcbride,

30/01/2009 03:09:21
4. Wardog.

"If it were done when 'tis done,
It were it were done quickly............." WS.

Simple choice YES/NO: negotiate or not!!!
8

frank mcbride,

lusitania 30/01/2009 03:27:02
#8, Cynicus.

You really are a cynic!!! lol
9

steve 1511,

aberdeen 30/01/2009 06:35:27
the lib/dem turn quicker than a pint of milk in the sun.
they have the spine of a jellyfish,they and the lybour party must be having nightmares at the thought of an election and the seats they will lose from the gravy train trough
10

David MacVicar,

web 30/01/2009 07:46:51
Wardog.

One thing that grates with me with Fiscal control (which would be a huge step in the right direction) is that we would still not have control over Energy policy and all it entails.

In practice I cannot see Scotland having full fiscal 'control' without control over this hugely important reserved power.

Fiscal control without devolved Energy responsibility is just fiscal accounting responsibility and degree of openness but not anywhere near fiscal control as not all fiscal levers are available.

There is another aspect here and it goes all the way back to the abolition of the Scottish privy council in 1708 when the English Government broke one if the terms of the treaty of Union one year after it was signed – bless them.
There was concern amongst the English peers/ law lords that the Scottish tail would wag the English dog in terms of law making. They didn't want a small part of the UK dictating laws for the majority despite English and Scottish laws being distinct.
It is ironic that this is happening now in a slightly different way with changes in Scotland such as Free Prescriptions (which I am against as it leads to abuse). However Scottish decisions are influencing English opinion and this will be increased the more that is devolved and we go our own way.
11

Jimmy Le Pie,

30/01/2009 07:48:19
The reason the Libdums changed their views is that they have realised they're now a total irrelevance in Scottish politics - a bit like New Labour Sleaze and Corruption!
12

David MacVicar,

Web 30/01/2009 07:59:29
The liberals and Lab are lost because they have no strong Scottish lead. They are but team leaders not political leaders.

Team leaders cannot lead a country. They are all over the place, looking over their shoulders at what their bosses are doing and alo trying to tell parliament and Scotland they have a vision for Scotland, while the SNP run rings round them despite various SNP mistakes - ROFL.

The tories, though I hate to admit it, are doing well because they have a strong leader who is not only a team leader but seems to have a loose remit in Scotland and is will ing to both challenge and negociate with th Scottish Government to get concessions and Tory policy in place.

The Libs have learned too little too late and will pay the price.
The Labs just haven't learned at all and seem to have little room to move anyway with the Westmonster monkey on their back via Mr Broon and Bust, Scottish office or any other GB Minister.
13

Queen D,

Glasgow 30/01/2009 08:47:51
OooH! Thanks for explaining whose fault it was Hamish!

I was so confused, I thought that the Greens had done it in the parlour with insulating fibre.But no!

Then I thought it was the Grey man and his harridans, (you know the ones, screeching banshees the lot)in the compost heap,how foolish of me!

It was really the Viking in the chamber pot with an axe,sorry!, tax.
Who will it be tomorrow ,I wonder?
14

Rodster,

Glasgow 30/01/2009 09:11:52
Slightly off topic however did you notice on Question Time last night , that despite 50 MPs , 40 odd MSPs a couple of MEPs the Labour Party in Scotland are so short of talent they had to bring in n appointed Lord and one excess to requirements now to be their voice in Scotland.
It just shows how short of any talent they are , a shower of incompetents led by a glove puppet in Holyrood
15

Doh,

30/01/2009 09:58:35


I dunno why they changed their tune.
But calling for more fiscal powers for the parliament would make a 2p tax cut at least possible in the future. So that at least makes sense.

I hope it is the start of more cooperation between the SNP and the LibDems in the parliament - they already work well together is several councils up and down the land.

However it is really up to the SNP at the moment they seem to prefer doing deals with the Tories.
Which is odd.
16

Queen D,

Glasgow 30/01/2009 10:22:08
Doh, pay attention, I will write this only once!
The SNP are a party dedicated to independence,as such they want FULL control of tax raised in Scotland.
The feeble party is trying to cover its tracks by intimating that tax raised in Scotland should stay in Scotland is their bright idea.
It ain't! And it will be very easy for the SNP to say okay dokay to this suggestion ,since it is theirs in the first place.
As for the Tory party ,one can only applaud their sense.
The voting system imposed by Westminster,only for the devolved governments you will note ,and NOT for Westminster, requires that there is consensus politics and that folk should work for the country and its people , not for the party and its desperation for power.
In that Ms Goldie can rightly ,be applauded.
I do not for one moment imagine that she will back the SNP in all things unquestioningly, I believe she has more sense than that.
The same cannot be said for the other opposition parties whose self interest is imposed by Westminster.
Sad really, because they are hoist by a Westminster petard with damn all interest in Scotland.
17

TWC,

30/01/2009 11:26:05
This could be the start of a better parliament if the Libdems do the same as the Tories and act like adults.
There is no doubt that the Libdems and increasingly the tories see some kind of Fiscal solution is required and they could quiteeasily come to an agreement that the Scots & Westminster MPs (excluding Labour) could support.
It would certainly side line Labour.
18

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 30/01/2009 11:30:04
I guess the LibDems realized they where putting the cart before the horse.

While the idea of an income tax cut to stimulate the economy during a recession has some merits, it falls down completely if you have to have a corresponding cut in Government spending. Which is what the current rules for Holyrood having no borrowing power would impose.

I guess they finally realized that simply aping the policies of the LibDems in Westminster won't work.
19

jdships,

Edinburgh 30/01/2009 11:37:19
5 frank mcbride

No spin here surely ?
Lib/Dems have made more " U turns" than even Labour !
They have no policies and are basically unnatractive to the voters .
20

,

30/01/2009 12:12:41
Comment Removed By Administrator
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21

Doh,

30/01/2009 12:27:49
#17

A little history for you.

The LibDems have always been in favour of more powers for the Scottish parliament. We favour a federal settlement.

You may have heardof Gladstone and Home Rule.
Rather pre-dates the SNP but I welcome your belated support. What took you so long?
22

Lumpy Dan,

Partick 30/01/2009 13:20:09
Doh said " I hope it is the start of more cooperation between the SNP and the LibDems in the parliament - they already work well together is several councils up and down the land.

However it is really up to the SNP at the moment they seem to prefer doing deals with the Tories.
Which is odd."

Not so odd as the Liberals suggestion of a 2p tax reduction will put 800 million pounds of public expenditure and the 35,000 jobs at the heart of the SNP's budget at risk .
23

Arfur,

30/01/2009 13:28:05
They U-turned because they only voted against the budget thinking it would pass without them. When it didnt they realised they may lose seats in an election and changed their tune.

#5 frank mcbride - well said. Macdonell - di you not realise the Labour tucked tail and ran also?

#20 jdships - i dont know they racked up a few last year. bring it on - no actually dont - bring it on - no actually dont - bring it on - actually please dont.
24

subrosa,

30/01/2009 14:13:23
# 11

David the paid prescription policy was also open to abuse. All one had to do was sign in the 'benefits' box and hey presto - free prescriptions. Through my voluntary work over the years this scam was well used by many and nearly impossible to police.

I agree with you about energy being part of fiscal control. Wardog perhaps overlooked it in error. Hopefully I'll still be around when Westminster are forced to give figures concerning fiscal control because it will certainly be an interesting period in politics.
25

David MacVicar,

web 30/01/2009 14:57:10
25 subrosa,

I realise the previous system was open to abuse but elsewhere (eg France - carte vital) where prescriptions were essentially free people end up getting handed out too much medicine they did not need attributing to a build up in resistance to existing medications.... I am not against free prescriptions in principle, its human nature that is the killer.

As for Wardog well I think he has a much better idea of what should be in the detail of Fiscal control than I have... lets hope its sooner rather than later.
26

PMK,

30/01/2009 16:05:36
Because they - like Labour - are terrified of the prospect of an election, however remote. They know the SNP would make more sweeping gains across Scotland; especially after the informal Lib-Lab Pact was seen to act against the interests of the Country for reasons of pure political gain.
27

The west awake,

Argyll 30/01/2009 16:41:53
lets play Realpolitik. The SNP does not need to give Labour or the LDs anything, unless they choose to.
They know they can get the 2 greens back on board now and the tories will still vote yes. So, the bill will pass without either Labour or LD help.
If I were the SNP I would tell Ian Gray where to stick his ideas, leaving him to explain - yet again - to his party and voters how he came out with nought AGAIN.
I would also tell the Lib Dems they will get the same unless they dump Calman and join the National Conversation. If they refuse - who cares? and if they accept Labour are up that creek, - paddleless as well as clueless.

Win -Win for the SNP here.
28

Brian Hill,

30/01/2009 18:51:44
I think both London Labour and the Lib Dems thought the budget would pass with Green support, so they felt safe enough to bang the big drum and try to look tough.

Following the dramatic events of the budget and realising that they, even more than the Greens would be blamed for the budget fiasco, they have both volt face(d)in order to try and save face.

I think also Tavish may be far down the road to realising that his party's fortunes are bound up with backing the SNP against London Labour whose slide will be obvious to all as this recession borders dangerously onto depression as they year wears on.
29

SNP hypocrisy,

30/01/2009 22:14:27
The Lib Dem's are a total joke after this week, whatever side of the political fence you are looking from, you will find them pathetic. Any respect I had for them has now gone out of the window.

So what other policies would they sudenly drop? Their manifesto is suddenly meaningless. Roll on the next election to see how this rubbish affects their support.
30

Gussie Fink-Nottle,

30/01/2009 22:33:56
Why did the Lib Dems change their tune?

Is it because Tavish isn't very bright and is advised by Pervy Purvis who is thicker than two short pieces of timber?

 

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