DECEMBER is going to be a big month for climate change.
Today the UK's new Committee on Climate Change tells us what they think the UK should be doing and the annual UN conference on climate change starts in Poznan in Poland.
This week or next the Scottish Government will unveil its draft Climate Cha
nge Bill.
The UK Committee on Climate Change was set up by the UK Climate Change Bill, which became an act last week.
The committee is chaired by Lord Adair Turner, former director of the CBI, and made up of experts in environment, energy and economics. It is required to advise the UK and devolved governments on targets and policies to meet them.
Its first report in October persuaded the UK government to increase its target from a 60 per cent to an 80 per cent reduction by 2050.
It is charged with setting the first 15 years' worth of carbon budgets under the Climate Act, so its conclusions are vitally important.
Although the first report was very useful it also raised some concerns.
Almost everything they suggested was a "technofix". Clever people in white coats would save us in the end.
While new technology, from electric cars to carbon capture for power stations, may have a very big part to play, we know we also need people to change their behaviour.
This may be voluntary, as people become more concerned about climate change, or it may be the result of the government sending price signals to make people change, but people just doing things differently can bring some of the most rapid reductions in emissions.
There are rumours that the committee may go easy on international aviation, the fastest rising source of climate emissions and something not covered by the Kyoto targets.
Their advice in October was unclear and the UK government has agreed to measure aviation emissions but not to include them in the UK's targets for now.
More positively, it is likely that the committee will say that there is no place for new coal power stations, putting an end to proposals at Kingsnorth and Hunterston.
Lord Turner himself is stepping down from chairing the committee. He has enough to do saving the economy as the chairman of the Financial Services Authority.
But this will reduce confidence in the future work of the committee because Lord Turner was that very rare thing :a person trusted by both the environmentalist and the business lobby.
The UN climate conference in Poznan is the annual two-week get-together for the world's nations.
This one is half-way between Bali last year, where everyone agreed to set new targets for 2013 and beyond, and Copenhagen in a year's time where these targets will have to be finalised.
The Kyoto Protocol's modest targets have worked quite well for those who played ball, but now we need much more ambitious targets, not just to reduce emissions from the industrialised countries covered by Kyoto but also to limit the growth of emissions from the developing countries.
The negotiators and ministers who attend know that the science speaks of an ever more urgent need for rapid action.
Almost every week another report comes out saying that some important thing, from the ice caps to ocean currents, is changing faster than expected.
Keeping the planet below the danger threshold of a 2 deg C temperature rise means global emissions need to peak and start falling by 2015.
Failing to step up to this challenge will make the current global economic woes look like a picnic.
Small steps like Kyoto will not be enough; the world is looking for major progress.
If Poznan does not produce a clear process and timetable there will be little hope of success in Copenhagen.
The EU is an important political player, coming with promises of strong emissions cuts, but already Italy and unfortunately the hosts, Poland, are weakening on this offer.
Although President Bush still picks the US negotiators, they will not have failed to notice that one of president-elect Obama's first speeches was on climate change.
He is promising tough targets in the long term but less in the short term.
The UK Climate Change Act and the new Scottish bill could be very influential.
Both are promising 80 per cent cuts by 2050 and the Scottish bill will set annual targets of about 3 per cent a year reductions, as well as including aviation and shipping from the start.
Our climate change minister, Stewart Stevenson, is planning to be in Poznan, promoting the Scottish bill and including aviation and shipping will probably be its most world-leading feature.
For all of our sakes, let's hope the other countries are listening.
• Dr Richard Dixon is director of WWF Scotland.
The full article contains 808 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
