THE assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has brought Pakistan's state of turmoil to new heights.
As head of the nation's most popular political party, she largely transcended Pakistan's ethnic and sectarian divides. Her return from exile in October was seen as a step towards curbing the country's dangerous fragmentation; her murder shatte
rs those hopes.
President Pervez Musharraf must take immediate steps – most importantly, the formation of a national unity government – to prevent Pakistan from tearing apart at the seams.
In deciding that her People's Party would participate in the January parliamentary election, Ms Bhutto threw a lifeline to Mr Musharraf, who has been beset by multiple insurgencies, a nationwide terrorist threat, and rock-bottom legitimacy.
Both Mr Musharraf and his supporters in Washington hoped that mainstream parties' participation in the election would end Pakistan's governance crisis and provide popular support for a decisive confrontation with the Taleban and al-Qaeda.
Now, however, the election will likely be postponed. Indeed, Mr Musharraf might be compelled to impose emergency rule again, as he did in November.
There are reports of violence in cities across Pakistan. Karachi, a multi-ethnic metropolis, could erupt into full-scale chaos. During the 1990s, violence there between Ms Bhutto's party and a local ethnic party – now allied with Ms Musharraf – took thousands of lives.
In these circumstances, a state of emergency could be warranted. But, given Mr Musharraf's lack of legitimacy, such a move would further infuriate Ms Bhutto's supporters, whose street power she had contained since October.
This could set the stage for a violent confrontation between the Pakistani masses and Mr Musharraf's regime. The nightmare scenario envisioned by many in Pakistan – a nuclear-armed country actively targeted by al-Qaeda and the Taleban – could become a reality. But this need not be a foregone conclusion. Mr Musharraf, who regularly claims to act on the basis of a "Pakistan first" policy, must now let go of partisan objectives and form a national unity government led by a prime minister from the opposition.
Any subsequent measures, including temporary imposition of emergency rule and full-scale war against the terrorists, require the complete support of the opposition parties. Mr Musharraf and his political allies cannot be seen as benefiting from Ms Bhutto's assassination; nor can they afford the perception of a cover-up. His opponents must be incorporated into the decision-making process.
A national unity government must assume three major responsibilities. First, it must establish an independent commission to determine who was responsible for Ms Bhutto's murder. While political assassination is not unfamiliar – Pakistan's first prime minister was killed in the same park where Ms Bhutto was murdered – it is imperative that the culprits be apprehended and tried.
Anything short of this would permanently taint Pakistan's leadership and impede all attempts at political reconciliation. Second, it must take necessary measures to ensure public safety and political stability, while paving the way for free and fair elections. It must offer Pakistan a consensual path toward winning back its tribal areas from the insurgents, end the wave of terror in its cities, and ensure the election of a new, legitimate government.
Finally, it must begin a dialogue with Mr Musharraf and the military on a permanent, constitutional separation of powers. If Ms Bhutto had not been assassinated and, instead, successfully become prime minister, she would likely have clashed with Mr Musharraf over his arbitrary empowerment of the presidency at the expense of the premiership. The issue will not go away with Ms Bhutto's death.
Pakistan's civil and military elite must create a broad consensus – perhaps with foreign assistance, but never with foreign meddling – on the constitutional roles of the prime minister, president, and the military. Ravaged by endemic elite discord since its founding, Pakistan desperately needs an elite reconciliation that includes all of the country's major stakeholders. Otherwise, Pakistan's terrorists, who feed off of political instability, will continue to gain, while the country's poor and illiterate majority will continue to lose ground.
The murder of Ms Bhutto need not result in the country's demise. Pakistan's elite have an opportunity to overcome their differences, unite in opposition to militants, and transform their failing state into a stable and prosperous democracy.
If they succeed in bringing about a national renewal, Ms Bhutto, a monumental political figure in Pakistani history, will not have died in vain.
• Arif Rafiq, a policy and communications consultant, edits the Pakistan Policy Blog (www.pakistanpolicy.com).
The full article contains 753 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
