Iraq, five years on

ON THURSDAY it will be exactly five years since Coalition forces launched their offensive in Iraq: targeted air bombing began on March 20, 2003, largely in an attempt to assassinate Saddam Hussein and key allies;

Then the "shock and awe" mass bomb offensive began, heralding a ground offensive towards Baghdad; Coalition troops seized the Iraqi capital on April 9; and then, on May 1, onboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, off the coast of San Diego, California, President George Bush declared "the United States and our allies have prevailed". He added: "And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country."

Five years on, it goes without saying that Bush's declaration of victory was premature. Today, the death toll among the British armed forces stands at 175. The Americans have lost at least 3,987 personnel, while 130 other allies have died. Many thousands of insurgents have also been killed and, while estimates vary, at least 90,000 Iraqi civilians have been innocent victims of the violence. Some put the figure at seven times that number. Estimates of the financial cost are also subject to partisan bias and vary wildly, but Britain has probably spent about £6bn so far, and the US more than 10 times that sum.

The death toll continues to rise. Yesterday, Iraqi security forces clashed with a Shi'ite faction in Kut, leaving five dead and 15 injured. Meanwhile, a street sweeper died when a hidden roadside bomb exploded in the Karradah neighbourhood of central Baghdad. Eight others were injured. It also emerged that a suicide bomber had killed an interpreter and wounded six other people, including two coalition soldiers, in an attack at a checkpoint near the Syrian border. Just another day in Iraq – and security forces are braced for a rise in violence to mark next week's anniversary.

And yet, there are signs that the situation is improving in that benighted nation. The number of insurgent attacks and the toll of the dead are still too high, but are down on the brutal spikes of previous years. Mercifully for worried relatives back home, the number of British casualties has fallen significantly since troops were withdrawn from permanent station in Basra. Meanwhile, the slow, expensive and often painful process continues of piecing back together a country torn apart by dictatorial abuse and war. Water and electricity supplies can still be precarious and travel remains difficult across much of Iraq, but advances are being made – even, as we report today, in Fallujah, the city synonymous with the very worst days of the war.

These green shoots of recovery cannot mask the basic fact that the coalition governments, particularly those of the United States and Britain, completely mishandled the conflict. This newspaper supported the invasion five years ago, on the basis that Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator who had persecuted large sections of society and who, we were told, posed a real and live threat to countries in the Middle East and beyond. That Saddam's regime did slaughter thousands of Kurds and brutalised entire communities of non-Ba'athists is beyond doubt. But, of course, the premise that Iraq was a wider geographical threat was false. If we knew then what we know now, like most who initially backed the war, our position would be very different.

That said, there is little option now other than to continue with the current policy of working to create an Iraq that is stable enough to leave to its own devices. On entering 10 Downing Street, Gordon Brown let it be known that he hoped to draw down troops at an accelerating rate, and he will be looking for real signs of a withdrawal before he tests the nation's patience in a General Election next year or in 2010. But, having failed to ensure that the coalition had a well-constructed exit strategy five years ago, the UK Government must avoid playing politics as it belatedly now tries to find a workable way out.

Frankly, the day when the last British soldier leaves Iraq cannot come soon enough. But we owe it to the Iraqi people to see the job through. That more lives will be lost – British, American, Iraqi and others – and that many more billions will be spent in the process is a bitter price we simply have to pay for the mistakes that were made five years ago.