AS A declaration of peace, it couldn't have been much plainer. When Labour MPs met last week for their first meeting at Westminster since returning from summer break, George Howarth, a former Home Office minister, got to his feet. Four months earlier, Howarth had told Brown bluntly that he was "the problem". Last month, he was among those calling for a leadership contest.
But in front of his colleagues, he was suddenly penitent: "It's time we got behind the Prime Minister. Hostilities are now over."
How things change. Some plotters had pencilled in last week as the moment Brown might be toppled, that another dire o
pinion poll would convince Cabinet ministers that this was the time to tell the Prime Minister the bad news. But the enormity of the financial crisis engulfing global markets has swept up all before it – including thoughts of a change of leader.
No wonder that last week Brown was walking a little lighter on his feet. For the first time since the SNP won the Glasgow East by-election in July, the Prime Minister was able to put to one side thoughts of his imminent political demise. The positive reception which was accorded the Government's rescue package on Tuesday added to his bonhomie.
He was even able to crack a joke that night. After someone's mobile rang during his after-dinner speech, he commented: "I don't know if another bank has fallen." The humour was of the gallows variety, but Brown's smile was genuine, not the fake 10-watt lightbulb variety he has taken to switching on and off at photo opportunities.
The past few days have also been good for Alistair Darling. Only a few weeks ago, the Chancellor was pilloried after he had declared that Britain was entering its worst economic period for 60 years. Insiders say the storm that followed his comments pushed Darling close to tears. But last week, his words appeared to be a modicum of understatement. Sixty years? What about ever?
The Chancellor's reputation was further enhanced by the revelation that, on Tuesday night, as a deal with the banks on a rescue package was being thrashed out, Brown had opted to go to bed and leave Darling in charge. And few were prepared to condemn Darling for having waited until Wednesday before unveiling his plan. "When you're talking about £500bn of public funds, you'd hope there'd be a bit of dither," said one Conservative.
It would stand to reason – with both Brown and Darling having enjoyed such happy times – that David Cameron has thus lost out. Certainly, the Tory leader's private view of two weeks ago that Brown would be out sooner rather than later looks incorrect. Cameron's worst moment was at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday when, after demanding the Government reign in lavish banking bonuses, Brown read out a quote from the week previously where Cameron had declared he would not make "cheap" digs about bankers. The manic order-paper waving of the Labour MPs afterwards revealed all the pent-up frustration they have built up over the summer while watching their own leader being mauled.
However, the Conservatives are sanguine this weekend, believing that, once the immediate crisis is over, attention will focus once again on how the mess was created in the first place. Cameron and shadow chancellor George Osborne will not be slow in reminding voters of Brown's record.
For Alex Salmond, however, the new landscape of British politics looks more daunting. With Iceland having flattened his "arc of prosperity", the First Minister has a tricky job to persuade voters that Scotland would have been better off on its own over the past two tumultuous weeks. Labour campaigners gathering in Glenrothes for next month's by-election now believe the game has changed and a new-found optimism is coursing through their veins. "Economy bust, Union saved," said one.
Glenrothes will undoubtedly give the first indication of how the economic storm is playing with the public. Should Labour hold the seat, an enticing question will once again hover before Brown – should he opt for an election next year? The best betting is that Brown and Darling will inflate public spending further next year to see off the coming recession. So why not go then, rather than wait for the inevitable cutbacks, now set for 2010? Some Labour MPs believe he will go to the country. "I've got June 2009 pencilled in," says one.
And a further reason presents itself. Next summer, the European elections are scheduled. If Brown's position is once again being questioned, and Labour do badly, he may well be forced to quit anyway. In other words, he might as well have his shot.
The full article contains 790 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
