ALEX SALMOND called it an "ambitious programme" as he announced the 15 new Bills the SNP plans to put before parliament over the next 12 months. But some proposals are more ambitious than others – and undoubtedly the one that threatens to give him the most trouble is the plan to replace the council tax with a local income tax.
The package unveiled by the First Minister also includes measures to tackle climate change, set up a sentencing council, take further action on alcohol, ban cigarette displays, and separate council and Holyrood elections.
Each of these promises
plenty debate, but it is the Council Tax Abolition Bill which will provoke most controversy.
The consultation exercise over the summer produced an avalanche of critical comments from financial experts, business leaders and unions.
CBI Scotland said it would drive up inflation and scare off investors. The Institute of Directors described it as a "risky path" that would cause "real problems" for business. And Unison, the UK's biggest public sector union, warned of cuts in services and families left worse off.
And, at the moment, there is no majority to get a local income tax through the Scottish Parliament. The SNP would need to win the support of both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens before they could get the bill passed.
Lib Dems are in favour of a local income tax in principle, but they reject the SNP's plan to set the tax nationally rather than allowing councils to decide their own local tax levels. And the Greens say they are "not convinced" about a local income tax, advocating a land tax instead.
Although it featured prominently in Mr Salmond's statement on Wednesday, the Bill is likely to be held back until near the end of the parliamentary year – possibly as late as next June – which means it might not be voted on until well into the 2009-10 session.
The Government believes that still fits with its declared aim of introducing the new tax in April 2011 and the cautious timetable gives plenty of time for negotiations in a bid to secure a parliamentary majority.
The Nationalists hope to persuade Tavish Scott and his colleagues to accept a compromise – for example, having the tax set centrally to start with, making it easier to introduce, and once it has bedded down allowing councils to vary the rate in their own area.
Some detect signs that the Lib Dems are adopting a conciliatory stance.
Mr Scott's official reaction to the SNP's promise of a Bill was short and positive: "We want to see the abolition of the discredited council tax. Liberal Democrats want a genuinely local income tax and we look forward to working with the Government to deliver that."
And a bullish Bruce Crawford, the SNP's minister for parliamentary business, said: "From what I know the Liberals are taking a pretty positive stance on this, we are taking a positive stance, and we will discuss where we can make adjustments that would hopefully enable us to secure that majority in the parliament.
"We are absolutely determined to make sure this Bill is successful."
The Greens say they also expect to be involved in discussions with the Government on the issue.
The SNP claims four out of five households would be better or no worse off under the new tax. It says 67 per cent of households will pay less, 15 per cent will see no change and only 18 per cent will pay more. But the reason so many people benefit is mainly down to the extra £281 million the Government plans to inject into the system, not the change in the system.
And there is also the small matter of £400m worth of council tax benefit currently paid to Scots by Westminster.
That's money UK ministers have repeatedly said will no longer come north if the council tax is abolished, but it is cash the SNP says Scotland is entitled to and which Mr Salmond's government is determined to fight for.
During the Scottish Labour leadership contest, all three candidates have been critical of the council tax and said that they want to reform or replace it, but without putting forward any specific proposals.
And the SNP says comments by Cathy Jamieson and the Tories' shadow Scottish secretary David Mundell appear to suggest they accept the council tax benefit money is cash Scotland should continue to receive.
Mr Crawford insists the Government will go ahead and introduce the Bill, even if Westminster is still refusing to hand over the £400m, but it is difficult to see how the new tax could be made to work without that vital contribution.
There are also practical considerations – like whether Her Majesty's Revenue & Customs will agree to collect it.
But there is a suspicion in some circles that what the Nationalists are really after, when they pursue the local income tax, is a row with Westminster in which the SNP is seen as standing up for Scotland against an unreasonable UK Government trying to deprive Scots of money that is rightfully theirs.
If that is the agenda, Labour ministers at Westminster are playing into the Nationalists' hands by making such a determined stand on the issue.
It is worth remembering that the SNP's declared strategy in power is to prove itself competent in government, demonstrate to people it is "on their side" and win their trust in the hope of persuading them to vote for independence.
The full article contains 917 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
