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Saturday, 19th July 2008

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Our housing market is not suffering same woes as England



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Different system is protecting Scotland from trouble, says Steve Spence.
SCOTLAND'S unique and widely admired house-buying system is set to protect it from the property market woes affecting the rest of the UK. The Scottish contract process based on "missives" is the main reason why the Scottish housing market is remainin
g robust, while in England prices are falling and the spectre of negative equity is looming heavily over many homeowners.

We at ELPG believe Scotland should again escape largely unscathed from problems crippling the market south of the Border. The Scottish and English markets are separate entities and the fundamental principles affecting one don't apply to the other – particularly with regard to the dreaded "property chains". During the last property slump in 1989-1993, prices went through the floor in England but in Scotland they stayed the same and even in some cases showed a slight increase. The reason for this is the missive system which underpins Scottish property transactions.

In Scotland, house buying is governed by individual contracts not directly linked to any other transactions, as happens in England. An offer is submitted with a long entry date, several weeks ahead, and the purchasers are expected to conclude missives right at the start, on the basis that they will get their mortgage through before the entry date and sell their property with an entry date that hopefully corresponds. If one sale breaks down, only that one transaction is affected.

In England the system is completely different. Many transactions are inter-dependent and long property chains can develop. Only when every party in the chain is ready to go does the chain of transactions progress. If a first-time buyer's expected 100 per cent mortgage fails to materialise, as is being experienced now because of the credit crunch, it is possible for ten or 12 transactions to fall flat on their faces.

That creates unimaginable turmoil and instability in the market place. Panic reigns and prices are reduced to try to get property deals resurrected.

Statistics for the period January to March 2008 show that ELPG members sold more houses compared with the same period in 2007 – 802 compared with 787. In addition, the ELPG group also saw a huge increase in the numbers of people putting their houses on the market – 1243 in Jan-Mar 08, against 1089 in 2007.

It suggests confidence remains high among homeowners. While the market here may take a breather, we believe there's every reason to assume Scotland will escape unscathed from the current challenging conditions and continue to enjoy a robust property market.

We are a distinct market and it's wrong for people to assume what is happening in England will inevitably happen in Scotland.

Steve Spence is a member of the Edinburgh and Lothians Property Group.




The full article contains 476 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

iain,

edinburgh 01/05/2008 10:59:08
What a load of rubbish- if Scotland does better it is only because there are so government related jobs...
2

iain,

edinburgh 01/05/2008 11:07:22
While we are on the subject why do we have to pay so much to buy and sell a house in Edinburgh???
3

iain,

edinburgh 01/05/2008 11:18:52
Ah, the author of this article works for the ELPG- what a surprise ....
4

ccc,

01/05/2008 13:01:32
Really quite embarrassing.

"It is different here".

So if it is so different here why did Edinburgh experience the same 'boom' as the rest of the UK ?

The 'differences' in the market didn't seem to have any affect on the way up. So why will they on the way down.

This story smacks of desperation. Excellent. They know the game is up. Only a matter of time until they admit it.
5

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

, Newington 01/05/2008 13:28:17
Assuming that Spence knows anything at all about credit bubbles, I think I see the plan.

Since credit bubbles have as much to do with human psychology as with availability of credit, overconfidence drives the boom and fear drives the bust. The plan seems to be that if confidence can be maintained by pretending that nothing is wrong, the bust can be avoided.

However, the very worst point to get involved is at the start of the bust. My fear is that this sort of thing will simply sucker naive individuals into losing a great deal of money.

Still, so long as the estate agents get their fees up front eh?
6

Merouane,

Edinburgh 01/05/2008 14:45:37
#4. I didn't think Edinburgh had 'boomed' as much as England.
7

ccc,

01/05/2008 15:18:36
#6

Use the BBC tool that uses Land registry prices:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/counties/html/county20.stm

City of Edinburgh - 213k
City of Nottingham - 131k
City of Manchester - 156k
City of Bristol - 218k
City of Cardiff - 181k

Nah Edinburgh has not boomed as much as down South........

Possibly the biggest lie pedalled by the local EA's and newspapers. It is just so wrong it is unreal.

Edinburgh is one of THE prime candidates for MASSIVE falls.

No if's or buts about it. Why don't you ask David Alexander why he is selling off his portflio (Heritors) at the same time as telling people through this papers "DONT SELL".

Not rocket science.....

8

Brian Ferrari,

01/05/2008 15:53:50
Part of the problem is though that Edinburgh doesn't have its own mortgage market.

100% loans have been scrapped in Edinburgh as well as in England. That changes quite a lot.

 

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Today's Vote

Is it a good idea for builders to offer incentives to first-time buyers?
Yes, it gives them the chance to get on the property ladder.
Yes, it gives them the chance to get on the property ladder.
It helps, but they’ll struggle to get a decent mortgage rate.
It helps, but they’ll struggle to get a decent mortgage rate.
No, first-time buyers should wait for the crisis to pass.
No, first-time buyers should wait for the crisis to pass.

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