By-election: 'The SNP is on a roll and likely to do very well'

THE by-election to choose a new MP for Glasgow East is a contest the Labour Party could do without.

It comes at a time when Labour nationally is in the doldrums, Gordon Brown's popularity is at an all-time low and the party in Scotland has just been left leaderless.

And when voters in the constituency, which includes some of the most deprived communities in the country, go to the polls on July 24 they will be doing much more than deciding who sits in the House of Commons on their behalf.

The result will be taken as symbolic of the mood of voters not just across Scotland but throughout the UK.

If the SNP were able to snatch victory in a constituency which has traditionally been one of Labour's safest seats, it would be hailed as another nail in the coffin of Gordon Brown's government.

If Labour manages to hang on, almost certainly with a dramatically reduced majority, it could be seen as giving the Prime Minister some much-needed respite.

The SNP has a track record of stunning by-election triumphs in Glasgow. Margo MacDonald's victory in Govan in 1973 and her husband Jim Sillars' win in the same seat in 1988 were important turning points in Scottish politics.

The Nationalists are understandably talking down their chances, saying what a mountain they have to climb. Labour did take over 60 per cent of the vote last time, after all. And Labour activists claim that while voters in other recent by-elections have been ready to say "I've always voted Labour in the past, but not this time", the party's voters in Glasgow East say they are staying loyal.

But after its victory at last year's Scottish Parliament elections, the SNP is still on a roll and is likely to do extremely well, even if they cannot in the end quite wipe out Labour's 13,507 majority.

David Marshall is resigning on health grounds after nearly 30 years as MP. But Labour's decision to hold the by-election during the traditional Glasgow Fair holiday will do nothing to improve turnout. And that may well be to the party's disadvantage.

Regardless of timing, the turnout for a by-election would almost certainly be below the 48 per cent recorded in the constituency at the last General Election in 2005.

But holding the poll while many people are on holiday will mean even fewer voters taking part – and those that do are likely to be the ones who are angry enough to want change.