No clear lifeline for Labour sinking under Brown

BY NOW, the script is familiar: Cabinet ministers rush to the defence of a beleaguered leader with protestations of loyalty and calls to rally round. But anonymous briefings from ministers speak of plunging morale and pressure for a leadership change. There is even talk of a "suicide election" to avoid a more devastating defeat in two years. The Prime Minister, meanwhile, affects not to hear, blaming his party's misfortunes on the global downturn and insisting that he carries on, con

We have been here before. But the problem for Labour now is not just that the economic downturn is likely to get worse before it gets any better. It is that the huge by-election swings being recorded in England and Scotland against the government speak to a more profound public disillusion with its leadership, competence and mission. Both at Westminster and at Holyrood there is a disillusion that goes deeper than soaring petrol costs and the price of food. It testifies to a void of purpose, personality and ideas within Labour.

At the UK level, the strongest argument for keeping Gordon Brown in situ is lack of any conviction that replacement by all-too familiar figures such as Jack Straw, Harriet Harman or David Milliband will effect any significant change for the better. They sound as tired and as clichéd as the Prime Minister they say they do not wish to replace.

But without change, the party is headed for oblivion.

At Holyrood, Andy Kerr has declared himself a candidate for leadership of the party in the Scottish Parliament, a contest conspicuously bereft of fresh and compelling talent. Mr Kerr's pitch is that he will tackle Scotland's "booze and blades culture". The depression this elicits across the spectrum is almost palpable. Have we not heard these earnest declarations before, and from a party that was eight years in power in Scotland, during which it made damningly little impression, either on anti-social drinking or the bleak persistence of knife crime? The era of eye-catching initiative is surely over. The public is heartily weary of it. It is no substitute for a wider, clearer vision of Labour's ambition for Scotland or greater programme for government. Nor is there any compelling evidence that the candidates who have entered the fray so far will prove any more effective in besting First Minister Alex Salmond than the previous leader, who failed to land a single memorable punch.

The party's plight is deeper than its leadership appears to realise. Mr Brown protests that he will concentrate on tackling food prices and dearer oil. Either he is exceptionally naive about what is in his power to achieve or he believes the public will buy it nonetheless. This augurs ill. Political and economic storms are building for the autumn that threaten both his premiership and the party's claim to power.