BRITAIN'S population is set to become the largest in Europe by 2060 – outstripping Germany, the current leader, according to the latest statistics, released yesterday.
But the study also reveals that the European Union is facing a pensions timebomb, with predictions that there will be only two people of working age paying the pension and healthcare costs for each person aged 65 or over when the population reaches
506 million by 2060.
Britain will overtake Germany by 2060 to become the EU's most populous state with 76.6 million citizens, up from 61 million at present. Germany's population is expected to fall to 70.7 million by 2060 from 82 million in January this year.
The strongest population growth will be in Cyprus, up 66 per cent by 2060; Ireland, up 53 per cent; Luxembourg, up 52 per cent; and Britain, up 25 per cent.
At present there are four people of working age for each person aged 65 or over.
Policymakers are bracing for a big rise in the number of pensioners, putting a strain on public finances as people live longer and there are proportionately fewer people of working age, even with net migration.
Amelia Torres, a European Commission spokeswoman, said: "The ageing of the population is one of the major challenges Europe must face with climate change and globalisation.
"The EU must make sure public finances are sound and people should work longer. We want to carry on with structural reform, in particular reform of pensions systems and for healthcare expenditure with the view to ensuring these systems are sustainable in the long term."
Professor David Bell, of the department of economics at the University of Stirling, said the figures raised serious questions about how EU resources should be distributed.
"There has always been a big debate over how different countries pool their resources. The UK has always resisted this strongly, but might well be expected to contribute more. However, I think the UK government would resist this.
"Economists have been aware of these issues for some time. While the UK and Scotland's birth rates have been going up … there are various reasons why this is not really happening elsewhere.
"Mediterranean countries have been suffering from chronically low birth rates for years. The increasing number of women in the workforce and the falling birth rate has been a factor since the end of the baby boom. It could take decades, if ever, to overturn. And even if it were possible, the loss of women's earnings would have repercussions for these countries' economies."
Prof Bell, who contributed to Lord Sutherland's review of the free personal and nursing care policy in Scotland, said while people should be saving for their old age, the government needed to be more proactive.
"The government needs to reassure people that they and their investments will be protected.
"Until recently people thought they were being sensible by investing their money in the stock market or in housing, but this has been shown to have huge variability.
"The government needs to examine experimental projects overseas, such as those in the US for pensioners where a range of facilities are provided on-site. However, they also need to be asking themselves what can be done for pensioners who can't afford this type of housing."
