Threat of new Cold War looms

THE spectre of a new Cold War was raised yesterday, after the United States warned Russia that East-West relations could be damaged "for years to come" if it did not pull back from Georgia.

The comments by Robert Gates, the defence secretary, came as Russia announced it was considering annexing permanently the separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Tensions between the two countries are likely to be heightened further after Poland last night signed a preliminary deal on plans to host part of a controversial US defence shield. The proposal is for the US to base ten missile interceptors in Poland in exchange for help strengthening Polish air defences.

Russia has condemned the project, claiming it would upset the military balance in Europe and has said it would have no choice but to point its own missiles at the installations.

One defence analyst told The Scotsman last night the timing of the deal was no co-incidence and was a clear example of the US "upping the ante".

Yesterday, the White House dismissed Moscow's threats about Georgia's breakaway regions as "bluster" and repeated its demands for Russia to pull its troops out of the area.

Mr Gates said he saw no need for US military force in Georgia, adding: "The United States spent 45 years working very hard to avoid a military confrontation with Russia. I see no reason to change that approach today."

His comments came before the new deal with Warsaw was disclosed, which is certain to anger the Kremlin.

Poland has long seen Russia as a threat to its security, and officials in Warsaw said Russia's activity in Georgia had convinced their counterparts in Washington the deal was necessary.

Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, announced the agreement on national television shortly before it was signed.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, reportedly cancelled a scheduled visit to Poland shortly after details of the deal were made public.

Earlier, he declared the world "can forget about" Georgia getting back its two provinces.

He spoke as Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, met the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia – a clear sign that Russia is considering absorbing them.

The Russian refusal to withdraw from Georgia and the comments from Moscow present a challenge to the EU-sponsored ceasefire agreement designed to end seven days of fighting.

Mr Lavrov said: "I believe it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state."

In Washington, Mr Gates warned that if Russia did not step back from "its aggressive posture", relations with the US would suffer gravely.

Meanwhile, US planes flew into Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, with tons of supplies for the estimated 100,000 people uprooted by the fighting.

Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russia's deputy chief of general staff, claimed he was not sure the planes carried only humanitarian cargo. "It causes our concern," Mr Nogovitsyn said.

Yesterday, Russian forces were still in the city of Gori, only 60 miles from Tbilisi. Russian troops also appeared in several other areas, including around Poti, a Black Sea port city with a key oil terminal.

Professor Michael Cox, an expert on US foreign policy in the post-Cold War era at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, predicted that US-Russian relations would worsen. "I don't think we are looking at a Cold War in the original sense," he said.

"I think this is a crisis that has been waiting to happen. It was always going to be Georgia."

Prof Cox said overlapping economic relations and interests would prevent the crisis turning into something more alarming.

However, he said the Polish deal was a show of strength by the US. "This is the US sending a clear message to the Russians," he said. "It's not coincidental that they signed it tonight. It's an upping of the ante."

Prof Cox, also of the London School of Economics, said that in practical military terms, the deal meant little, but its timing and symbolism were important.

He warned that the Russians were likely to retaliate.

Last night, Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, issued another urgent call to Russia to honour the ceasefire, as she prepared to take the formal agreement to Tbilisi to have it signed by Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president.

Nicholas Sarkozy, the French president, who helped negotiate the deal, said the documents were "intended to consolidate the ceasefire".

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