Stephen McGinty: Colour rears its ugly head in White House race

IF A black presidential candidate was to seek out the white working-class, who may, or may not be reluctant to vote for him on the basis of the colour of his skin, he could do no better than pay a visit to a car plant in Detroit, Michigan. And so, Barack Obama, in plastic hard hat, the uniform of the white working man, toured the Chrysler car factory on Wednesday.

Later, at a meeting in a community centre attended by 200 union members, Mr Obama set out his political stall, explaining in his loose, charismatic way why he and not John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, would better address the fears of the average working man. If he is president, Mr Obama said, "we won't just revive and strengthen our automakers, we're going to revive and strengthen all of American manufacturing."

The reason behind the Democratic candidate's first visit to Michigan in months was made clear by his decision to make two stops in Macomb County, a northern suburb of Detroit to which thousands of white auto-workers moved during the urban race riots in the late 1960s and the court-ordered bussing that integrated schools in the 1970s. Race was an issue to be addressed by symbolism, although it took a question from a reporter to render it explicit.

Mr Obama insisted his rapport with working-class whites will be much stronger after they weigh the choice between him and Mr McCain during the autumn campaign. He said: "This is something that has been ramped up and magnified, I think, by the press," before going on to point out his strong support among whites in the states of Iowa, Minnesota, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Speaking of Hillary Clinton, his trailing opponent for the Democratic nomination, he said: "A lot of these voters had fond memories of Bill Clinton. That transferred to Hillary Clinton. That doesn't mean they won't vote for me in a general election, and that's ultimately what this race is all about. Senator Clinton has gotten a very small percentage of the African-American vote in many of these contests, but I don't think anybody thinks somehow that if she were the nominee that she wouldn't get the African-American vote."

Yet the question on everyone's lips this week is can Mr Obama secure the white working-class? In a controversial interview with USA Today, Mrs Clinton said, effectively, no, that while her opponent was leading in pledged delegates, those super-delegates who remain undecided would be wiser to choose her on the grounds that she could secure the crucial white working-class.

She said: "I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on." She then cited an Associated Press article "that found how Senator Obama's support among working, hardworking Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me." She said: "There's a pattern emerging here." Swiftly slammed by the New York Times in an editorial for using veiled racial attacks against Mr Obama, and criticised by Charles Rangel, a Democratic Representative, as "the dumbest thing you could have possibly said," Mrs Clinton later conceded on CNN that: "Well, he's probably right."

Mrs Clinton's comments have raised the question of how many white people, working-class or not, will be put off voting for a black candidate? America, as Europeans often forget, is a nation where race remains a major issue. The last black slave died in the 1960s, when southern blacks were still segregated at the back of the bus and routinely denied the vote. Today, racial discrimination is found in at least a third of all US businesses.

A study of temporary agencies in California found that less-qualified white women are still three times more likely to be favoured in a job search than their black counterparts.

In 2006, the House judiciary committee wrote: "It is rare that white voters will cross over to elect a minority preferred candidate." But how many people would be distinctly prejudiced? A Gallup poll in 2003 found 7 per cent of Americans unwilling to vote for a "qualified African American candidate", while a poll in April, by Associated Press, found 8 per cent of whites were uncomfortable voting for a "black for president". While a poll this month by Newsweek found 41 per cent of Americans thought "some Americans" would have reservations.

The number of white Americans with reservations has grown since the release of film of the Rev Jeremiah Wright, Mr Obama's pastor for over 20 years, in which he railed against whites and declared: "God Damn America." In an AP/Yahoo survey more than half – 53 per cent – of whites who have not finished college had negative impressions of Mr Obama, a rise of 12 points since November.

As Stephan Thernstrom, the co-author of America in Black and White: One Nation, Indivisible yesterday explained: "The white working-class voters in general have been given good reason to hesitate because of the Rev Wright and his outrageous behaviour as well as Obama's failure to act swiftly to disavow him.

"And even when he did disavow him, he has still left people with concerns that this person was his pastor for 20 years and that this stuff is not unrepresentative. Black liberation theology teaches that white people are the oppressors and blacks are the victims. Period.

"Yet I would say he has gained from his race more than he has lost. He has gained 90 per cent of the black vote and also a great deal of the white, educated middle-class vote. He is an unknown senator, but people are able to think that if they vote for him they will break through a racial barrier."

If Mr Obama is elected as the Democratic nominee, as looks increasingly certain, the whole question of race will continue through to the election in November, according to Dr Larry Sabato, director of the Centre for Politics at the University of Virginia.

He said: "It's quite possible that Obama will underperform his pre-election polls once Americans actually get into the booth on election day – that is, there will be some racial leakage, with a few per cent of whites saying that they will vote for Obama but, in the booth, being unable to cast a ballot for the black candidate. That's happened on numerous occasions when black candidates were running for state governor or city mayor. We'll see.

"A large percentage of the people currently voting for Hillary Clinton will end up casting a ballot for Barack Obama in November, no matter what they are saying now. The tug of party loyalty will ensure that. Still, elections are won at the margins, usually, and so even a relatively small defection rate can be significant. My surmise is that Obama will do less well among the white working-class than a white Democratic nominee would. How much worse is anybody's guess at this point.

"However, Obama adds votes among African-Americans, young people and highly educated suburbanites, and these votes can offset the working-class losses."

Back in Michigan, on Wednesday Bill Rustem, president of Public Sector Consultants, a political think-thank, said many voters in the state are just starting to get to know Mr Obama. He said: "There's a lot of excitement among young people and among African-Americans, which should serve him well. There still are questions among older white people that I think he's going to have to try to appeal to them in some way."

At the early political rallies held by the Obama campaign, his young supporters, black and white, would chant: "Race doesn't matter, race doesn't matter." Yet there is no doubt that to some white voters it does.

Perfect union won't happen soon

The insider's view

Barack Obama US Senator for Illinois

Most working- and middle-class white Americans don't feel that they have been particularly privileged by their race. Their experience is the immigrant experience – as far as they're concerned, no one's handed them anything; they've built it from scratch. They've worked hard all their lives, many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pension dumped after a lifetime of labour. They are anxious about their futures; in an era of stagnant wages and global competition, opportunity comes to be seen as a zero sum game, in which your dreams come at my expense.

So when they are told to bus their children to a school across town; when they hear that an African American is getting an advantage in landing a good job or a spot in a good college because of an injustice that they themselves never committed; when they're told that their fears about crime are somehow prejudiced, resentment builds over time.

Like the anger within the black community, these resentments aren't always expressed in polite company.

This is where we are right now. It's a racial stalemate we've been stuck in for years. Contrary to the claims of some of my critics I have never been so naïve as to believe that we can get beyond our racial divisions in a single election cycle, or with a single candidacy – particularly a candidacy as imperfect as my own.

* This is an edited extract from Barack Obama's "A More Perfect Union" speech.

Women's vote still a Democratic bedrock

The expert's insight

Dr Phillips O'Brien lecturer in History at Glasgow University

IN CRUCIAL states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, or so Hillary Clinton would have us believe, Barack Obama has been so tainted by the statements of the Rev Jeremiah Wright, that these blue-collar "Reagan Democrats" might once again be tempted to leave their natural party in droves to protect their guns and religion and support John McCain in November. It is a powerful but probably wrong-headed assumption.

In the first place, Obama does not really have a "white" problem – it's more accurate to say he has a "white women" problem. In most of the Midwest states he lost; Obama actually ran close, and sometimes actually beat Clinton amongst white male voters.

White female voters, particularly older ones, on the other hand, have turned out for Clinton in droves, providing Hillary with her margin of victory. The question has to be asked that once Hillary is out of the race, which will happen soon unless some skeleton emerges from Obama's closet, whether these women will abandon the Democratic party?

Certainly there is nothing to make us believe that they will. The women's vote has been one of the two bedrocks of the Democratic constituency for the last 20 years, supporting male and female, white and black candidates. Certainly they would prefer to vote for Hillary Clinton, but if that option is removed, most of them will stifle their sadness and vote for Barack Obama.

Keywords

WRIGHT

Jeremiah A Wright jnr is the senior pastor of the Trinity United Church of Christ, a megachurch in Chicago with around 10,000 members. Wright's preaching was scrutinised when parts from his sermons were publicised in connection with Barack Obama, who had attended the church for over 20 years.

WHITE AMERICA

In the United States, there are approximately 221 million white people, or 74 per cent of the total population. Poverty rates for white Americans are said to be the lowest of any racial group, with 8.6 per cent of white individuals living below the poverty line, which is 3 per cent below the national average.

A poll by Associated Press found that 8 per cent of whites were uncomfortable voting for a black candidate for president.