THE number of murders, rapes, housebreakings, vandal attacks and drug offences has fallen dramatically across Scotland, with 60,000 fewer crimes reported in the past 12 months.
The Scotsman can reveal that recorded crime has fallen consistently across the country, with a year-on-year reduction of more than 6 per cent.
Total crime is now at its lowest level since 2000. Nearly 878,000 crimes were recorded by seven of the e
ight forces able to provide statistics for 2007-8 – 6.6 per cent lower than the previous year's total of 940,000 for the same seven forces.
Victim support campaigners last night gave a warm welcome to the news that crime appeared to be falling – something one expert put down to more effective policing.
Across the country, the biggest falls include housebreakings, where a 15 per cent drop was recorded, and speeding, where more than 13,000 fewer offences were noted – 12 per cent down on 2006-7.
However, the picture remains mixed across the forces. Lothian and Borders Police saw one of the biggest reductions in recorded crime – but housebreakings jumped 10 per cent.
Detection rates – the percentage of crimes solved – increased in the Strathclyde area, but fell by more than 2 per cent in Lothian and Borders.
David McKenna, chief executive of Victim Support Scotland, said the figures were "extremely encouraging", although public fear of crime remained high.
"Some people, especially the police, politicians and statisticians, will instantly recognise the good news story of a reduction in crime. It is welcome news that crimes involving violence, and drink and drugs abuse, are on the way down. We need them to be on the way out," he said.
Last year's drop in crime follows a smaller rise the previous year. But while police crime figures are notoriously prone to mysterious swings, the statistics for 2007-8 appear to indicate a clear downward trend.
Scotland's foremost academic expert on police crime figures, Professor Nick Fyfe, of Dundee University, said the principal reason why recorded crime has fallen is because police are becoming "smarter". He pointed to "significant investment" in crime analysts.
The director of the Scottish Institute for Policing Research added: "The use of technology like 'hot-spotting' (identifying the places and times that crime is most likely to occur] has really come to the fore. For the first time, police are now able to identify precisely the level of demand for their resources. This has led to much smarter policing."
He said community safety was much improved by better co- operation between local authorities, community groups and private companies.
"Take planning, for example. The role of architectural liaison officers is a significant initiative that is making the design of housing estates more secure against crime," he said.
However Paul Martin MSP, Labour's spokesman on community safety, believes the figures are misleading.
"I think the reality is that these figures mean that people are not reporting crime – and that is because they have no faith in the offenders being punished. The figures are grossly misleading because they do not reflect people's experiences of crime on a local level.
"The reality is that many communities feel car crime, graffiti and antisocial behaviour are all on the rise, but these often go unreported. We don't have enough police officers. We were promised more by the SNP, but they seem to have eluded us."
The official figures conceal offences that are not reported – a problem police acknowledge and claim they are addressing with initiatives like encouraging consultants in accident and emergency departments to pass on data about knife attacks.
Chief Superintendent Gill Wood, head of the Safer Communities department at Lothian and Borders Police, said: "Police understand there are many reasons why people might not report crimes, and are working hard to break down any perceived barriers." But she told The Scotsman that falling crime figures were partly a reflection of "more professionalism" among the police.
She said that a close examination of crime patterns, with modern technology, allows forces to deploy resources into the areas that most need them.
She added: "Police are far more actively engaged in analysing crime patterns, which is helping us to deploy our resources more effectively. The introduction of the national intelligence model a few years ago is really starting to bear fruit.
"Before, there was not so much professionalism. You'd find the typist on Friday would be the crime analyst on Monday. That has all changed. There has been a lot of investment in analysts, and the technology that allows us to identify and make far more sense of crime patterns.
"One example of that has been the deployment of extra officers on weekends at the top of Leith Walk, which had been identified as a crime 'hot spot'.
"The analysts help us identify trends and particularly vulnerable types of premises, or indeed people such as the elderly, who may be more likely to be targeted by bogus callers.
"That helps us to be more proactive so, for example, we can get the message out to pensioners to be more careful who they let into their homes."
Ten reasons the country is becoming a safer place in which to live
1 TARGETED POLICINGThe Scottish police service has in recent years invested heavily in backroom crime analysts who are now producing an extremely detailed picture of offending across towns and cities.
Divisional commanders and local squad leaders now have a plethora of statistics at their fingertips, including when and where specific crimes are most likely to occur. This helps police to gauge how many officers should be put out on beats, allowing them to distribute officers from less crime-prone areas to hotspots.
2 PARTNERSHIPSPolice no longer see themselves as solely responsible for tackling crime – the concept of "community safety" now stretches across the public and private sectors.
Officers say they are working more closely with other bodies such as local authorities, the licensing trade, neighbourhood watch schemes and private businesses to promote safety.
Lothian and Borders Police has begun regular partnership meetings that will see education, health, housing, transport and other officials get round the table with senior police officers to thrash out ways to prevent and reduce offending.
3 SAFER PROPERTYThe design and maintenance of houses and estates can make a big difference to property crime, such as housebreaking. Simple measures like ensuring that flat entry systems are in good working order can instantly deter the opportunistic burglar.
Equally, as security in cars becomes more advanced, opportunities for thieves become fewer.
4 TESCO EFFECTThe tumbling price of electrical goods is believed to have triggered a decline in burglaries across Scotland.
Housebreakings have roughly halved over the past ten years. No wonder, when you consider how much more affordable electrical goods have become.
A television that costs £300 now would have cost about £900 in real terms in the mid-1990s and more than £1,100 in 1985.
The biggest price drops have been witnessed in film-playing machines.
In the 1980s, a Betamax cost the equivalent of £1,000 in today's money, while in the Nineties a VHS cost £400. Now DVD players are available in supermarkets for £30.
5 PLANNINGBuilding developers are increasingly being encouraged to ensure their latest projects are designed to minimise chances of crime occurring.
Creating almost "gated" communities, where residential streets are designed to appear like private areas, reduce the number of non-residents likely to pass through, and therefore the likelihood that thieves will strike. One subtle way this can be done is to paint the pavements a different colour to the main streets.
6 SURVEILLANCEITS significant financial cost has been a growing cause of concern, but the expansion of CCTV in recent years is certain to have played some part in reducing crime and anti-social behaviour.
A recent investigation by The Scotsman revealed that more than 200,000 incidents have been picked up by CCTV cameras over the past four years. Critics say CCTV only causes criminals to move to areas less covered by cameras, but Professor Nick Fyfe, director of the Scottish Institute for Policing Research, believes this "displacement" effect "is overstated".
The 1,566 cameras operated by the 25 councils and police forces that provided data to The Scotsman cost £27 million to purchase.
7 LESS DEPRIVATIONThere is no doubt that crime is far more likely to occur in more deprived communities. Scotland's prison population is overwhelmingly populated by offenders from areas blighted by high unemployment, poor housing and high levels of drug and alcohol abuse.
Whether or not deprivation is actually falling, however, is a subject of much debate. While some indexes, such as unemployment, may suggest Scotland is become a wealthier and more successful country, and therefore less likely to be affected by crime, inequality remains a serious issue which some academics say is just as likely to trigger crime as actual poverty.
8 DETECTIONNothing deters criminals more than the likelihood of being caught.
Government statistics suggest that, while clear-up rates for more serious crimes have remained fairly steady, police in recent years have become better at catching offenders committing less serious – but much more common – crimes, such as breach of the peace.
9 DEMOGRAPHICSScotland may be facing soaring pensions and health care costs as a result of its ageing population, but one area where society might be benefiting is law and order. As the proportion of the population consisting of young men declines, it is arguable that crime will also fall as they are the ones most likely to offend.
10 NOT REPORTINGIt is very difficult to quantify, but even the police admit a vast amount of crime does not appear on the official figures because it is simply not reported in the first place.
Gang-related violence and race hate crimes are among the least likely to be reported to police.
Emphasis must be on tackling the climate of fear on our streets
David McKenna
Chief Executive of Victim Support Scotland FIGURES revealing a drop of about 60,000 crimes in Scotland are enormously encouraging. Fear of crime, though, remains stubbornly just too high. Almost three-quarters of the country is just so much safer than the people who live there think.
In some communities the fear of crime is all too real and backed up by the day-in, day- out experience of local people.
Much more needs to be done to reduce crime and the impact of crime in these at-risk areas. Support for the victims of crime must play a key part of any strategy. More needs to be done to aid people in the aftermath of crime.
But what about the people who live in fear that just isn't real? In the most part that's you and me. Fear of crime blights the quality of so many of our lives yet that crime has little or no likelihood of happening.
The truth is that those who fear crime the most are the least likely to become a victim of crime. Older people and particularly women are the least at risk of crime.
The good news is the older you get the less likely you are to suffer from crime. More likely to win big on the lottery than to be violently assaulted or murdered – at least outside our homes. The link between real crime and fear of crime is complex.
Some people, especially the police, politicians and statisticians, will instantly recognise the good news story of a reduction in crime. It is welcome news that crimes involving violence, drink and drug abuse are on the way down. We need them to be on the way out.
But for many of our people it will take a long time to believe the official version of crime. Years will pass and if the trend continues downwards we will eventually see people's fear of crime begin to diminish to more realistic levels.
It is a case of one swallow doesn't make for a safer stronger Scotland. The signs are positive and time will tell. It may take reductions over years to convince the majority of us all that truly it is much safer out there than we think.
The media regularly presents changes in statistics as a "blip" so it should come as no surprise that readers or listeners tend to adopt the same approach and watch for longer-term evidence to substantiate the position.
It is widely recognised that people are living longer and their experience of crime has heightened the sense of insecurity. The great news, the best story, is that our streets are getting safer for you and for me.
Victim Support Scotland works with 100,000 victims of crime a year. Some will be heartened by these reductions but many of the people we support have had an experience they are unlikely to forget.
A crucial part of tackling fear of crime is to effectively address the needs of communities, individuals and families affected by crime.
Practical and emotional support in the aftermath of crime plays an important part, not just in recovery of communities but in reducing the fear of crime and the likelihood of more crime.
Let's take heart from these statistics and redouble our efforts nationally and locally to deliver the safer stronger Scotland we all deserve.
TOTAL RECORDED CRIMES
CRIMES BY REGION
The full article contains 2241 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
