Political earthquake on the way – Salmond

A POLITICAL earthquake has started in Glasgow East that will change the political landscape, Alex Salmond, the First Minister, claimed yesterday.

He was commenting on the findings of a YouGov poll that showed the SNP had passed Labour in popularity across Scotland.

It had SNP support at 33 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent, the Tories on 20 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 14 per cent. The same poll showed support for independence at 36 per cent, with 48 per cent against.

The SNP also highlighted a poll finding that 49 per cent of Scots want the SNP to win in Glasgow East, compared with 33 per cent who favour Labour.

But Labour dismissed the poll as unrepresentative of Glasgow East. It said: "Interesting though this poll is on the views of Scots on issues such as independence, this Scotland-wide poll tells us very little about the views of people in the East End."

The SNP says it has high hopes of overturning Labour's 13,500 majority in the by-election on 24 July.

"I think the ground is starting to tremble and shudder; I think the earthquake is on the way," Mr Salmond said as he visited a Tesco supermarket in the Shettleston part of the constituency yesterday. "It's good to know that Scotland is cheering on the SNP in this by-election."

Mr Salmond's supermarket visit was intended to get across the message that the cost of living was a dominant feature of the campaign.

He said: "A lot of folk want to use this by-election to force action from the Westminster government right now on the things that concern people as they shop, travel and try to heat their homes.

"That is a perfectly reasonable thing for the folk of Glasgow East to want to do."

Mr Salmond said he would not be surprised to see "some movement" from Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, to ease living costs in a what he called a "desperate" attempt by Labour to save the seat.

A similar theme was picked up by the Conservatives, whose candidate, Davena Rankin, visited an Asda supermarket in the constituency.

Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, said the new poll showed her party was closing in, too, on Labour. "Scottish politics is now a three-horse race, and whilst we are still currently the third horse, we are closing the gap on Labour," she said.

SNP has a way to go to win separatist argument

THE latest YouGov poll is a bitter-sweet reminder for Alex Salmond of how success is strengthening his party's position in Scotland but not bringing it closer to its raison d'être – independence.

The importance of this poll is that it is one of the first proper ones in Scotland, as opposed to a sample of UK polls, to have put the SNP well ahead of Labour in voting intentions for a Westminster election, as opposed to a Holyrood one.

The Nationalists' 33 per cent puts them four points ahead of Labour on 29, but almost as shocking is the Tories' 20 per cent. However, support for independence, or rather, as the question framed it, for the Scottish Government to start negotiations for independence, was only 36 per cent compared with 48 per cent against.

This raises doubts over Mr Salmond's strategy of hoping four years of popular Holyrood government by the SNP will strengthen support for separation and gives credibility to Wendy Alexander's strategy, which Labour appears to be dropping, of calling for a quick referendum.

As a possible 2010 referendum grows closer, some of Mr Salmond's back-benchers, especially fundamentalists, may get nervous and call for a more overt push towards independence.

At the moment, the SNP is relying on highlighting grievances with Westminster on issues such as lottery money going to the London Olympics or holding back council tax benefit if Scotland's introduces a local income tax.

Leading polling analyst Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said: "I've never been convinced that the tactic of doing well in government was necessarily going to improve support for independence.

"This poll is very interesting because it does show that the SNP have a difficult task.

"But you have to remember that, with 33 per cent support for them, 36 per cent support for independence makes sense.

"The pro-Union support will be more divided because there are three parties."

But he said it was significant that the SNP had climbed above Labour in the polls.

"To my mind this is the first serious poll that shows the SNP above Labour on voting intentions for Westminster.

"It will be good for them in the background as they fight this by-election, but they will need to have an even bigger swing than this to win in Glasgow East.

"I'm surprised with the Conservative support, but maybe it shows they are finally making a comeback north of the Border. We shall have to wait and see – one swallow does not make a summer, after all."

Critics claim Labour big guns are running scared of by-election

LABOUR'S leaders have been accused of running scared from the Glasgow East by-election.

While other parties have wheeled out their "big guns", there are no plans for Labour to bring any members of the Cabinet to help the campaign.

Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary and the MP for the nearby Paisley constituency, has made only an unofficial appearance and Des Browne, the Scottish Secretary, will come for one day to help the campaign, but will not take part in photo opportunities.

There are no plans to bring Prime Minister Gordon Brown or the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, to the area for the campaign. In contrast, both the First Minister, Alex Salmond, and his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, have appeared to boost the SNP campaign; most of the Conservative shadow cabinet, led by David Cameron, will visit; and the Liberal Democrat leader, Nick Clegg, was in the area this week.

Opponents claim Westminster figures are "running scared" because they are wary of being branded "London Labour" and fear that their current unpopularity may only serve to lose the Scottish party votes. It has also been said that the lack of Westminster figures gives Ms Curran the chance to disagree openly with them on issues such as car and fuel tax.

Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie said: "Gordon Brown and his Cabinet are afraid of being seen (in the constituency] because they know how unpopular they are.

"They should be ashamed for not being willing to stand up and protect the Union."

An SNP spokeswoman said: "There are so many Scottish Cabinet ministers, it's not exactly far for them to come."

But Labour insist they are focusing on local issues and their candidate. A spokesman said: "Unlike the others, we have a strong enough candidate to stand on her own without the need to be chaperoned."

Christian used to rough side of local politics

WITH Gordon Brown's future in the balance, it took only a few days for the gloves to come off in an effort to discredit John Mason, the SNP's Glasgow East by-election candidate.

He was branded "paranoid and xenophobic" by Labour MSP George Foulkes after calling God Save the Queen an anti-Scottish song and demanding English flags were taken down at a school during the last World Cup.

A former party rival, Dorothy Grace Elder, wrote about how he supposedly hated women, mainly her.

But Mr Mason said he is relaxed about the attacks. "You get a thick skin in politics. If Labour feel the need to do that then they must be worried."

He has learned to deal with the slings and arrows of opponents from ten years as a Glasgow city councillor

after beating Labour in an "unwinnable" East End by-election in 1998.

The 57-year-old accountant is a committed Christian, whose Baptist faith drives his politics.

"I am as driven by the need for closing the gap between rich and poor," he said. "That comes from my faith."

He discovered his support for independence while working in Nepal for an NGO in the 1980s.

"Nepal is a small country between two huge ones – India and China – but fiercely proud of its independence," he said.

"I meant it to be just like joining the National Trust, pay your money and get the newsletter, but I attended some meetings and got more involved and now look where I am."