ROADS full of electric cars, a massive increase in wind farms and homes heated using renewable fuels must all be the norm by 2050 if Scotland is to meet its ambitious climate change targets, according to a new report.
A delivery plan on how to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 has been drawn up by the Scottish Government.
Ambitious aims include getting to the stage where nearly all electricity is provided by renewables, backed up by "clean" fo
ssil fuel power stations.
The document, published yesterday, also lays out a vision for 2050 that would see nearly all road and rail transport become electric – and there could be a 60mph motorway speed limit.
There would be almost zero emissions from landfill, with a ban on sending certain types of waste to such sites.
Homes would be heated using renewable fuels rather than gas and the majority would be heavily insulated, while forests would cover a quarter of Scotland, playing their part by sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
But although the Climate Change Delivery Plan sets out a vision for 2050, it does not spell out exactly how this will be achieved, nor give details as to how much the measures are likely to cost.
These details, according to a Scottish Government spokesman, will be in a further report – a Report on Proposals and Policies, to be published next year.
Stewart Stevenson, the climate change minister, described it as an action plan that would "transform Scotland to a sustainable, low-carbon society". But the Scottish Green Party and environmental organisations felt it did not go far enough.
The action plan has been published ahead of the final round of talks on the draft Scottish Climate Change Bill next week.
Mr Stevenson said: "Scotland will soon have the most far-reaching climate change legis lation in the world.
That must be accompanied by action and our Delivery Plan demands action now, tomorrow and from future generations and governments."
Efforts to reduce emissions would help the economy, he said. "Harnessing energy-related opportunities presented by Scotland's natural capital can create tens of thousands of green jobs as we move to 2050.
"These are jobs for the future – in our rapidly expanding renewables industry, in developing clean fossil fuel technology, in energy efficiency and microgeneration and in the developing sustainable transport industry."
The Climate Change Bill sets a target to cut emissions by at least 34 per cent by 2020, which will be increased to 42 per cent if the EU agrees to reduce its emissions by 30 per cent by 2020.
However, Stop Climate Chaos Scotland, a coalition of environment groups, has called for the SNP to adopt the 42 per cent target now. The group said the action plan showed that it was possible to reduce emissions by 42 per cent by 2020, and said it had "run out of excuses" not to aim for this.
Dr Richard Dixon, director of WWF Scotland, a member of Stop Climate Chaos Scotland, added: "This plan shows that it is possible for Scotland to meet tougher climate targets over the next decade. There is no longer any excuse for politicians to aim any lower than a 40 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020."
Professor Jan Bebbington, vice-chair of the Sustainable Development Commission Scotland, called the plan "ambitious" but said the solution lay in "changing human behaviour".
She said: "The Delivery Plan needs to be clear about how to involve people in this work, not just focus on what technical and legislative changes will be brought in by government."
Green MSPs rejected the plan as "completely inadequate to the task in hand". They said it failed to set targets for emission cuts from energy efficiency, did not commit to a universal home insulation scheme and made assumptions about an unproved technology to capture and store carbon dioxide from power stations with "no Plan B should the technology fail".
It ignored the impact of the SNP's motorway construction programme and did not include moves to reduce road traffic.
Colin Howden, director of Transform Scotland, agreed there was a lack of action on areas such as increasing cycling and walking. In contrast, he said, the government had a "multi-billion road-building programme – which goes strangely unmentioned in this document".
REACHING FORTHE SKY: WILL THE CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN WORK?ELECTRICITYPLAN
Largely carbon-free electricity by 2030. More than 50 per cent of electricity will be generated from renewable sources by 2020. By 2030 fossil fuel plants will be fitted with technology that captures carbon dioxide. By 2020 there would be a fully operational power station using carbon capture and storage. Marine energy technologies and offshore wind will come on board. All homes will have smart meters by 2020 to help householders cut down on their energy use.
VERDICT
It is ambitious to aim for electricity to be largely carbon-free by 2030; this will be extremely challenging. The plan places heavy reliance on carbon capture and storage technology coming online. But this has not yet been proven. It also assumes Scotland will win the UK competition for funding for a pilot scheme, but this may not happen. And it relies on the grid being dramatically improved; yet there is huge opposition to the Beauly to Denny line upgrade, which would need to be the first step.
HEATPLAN
By 2020, 11 per cent of heat would be generated from renewable sources. By 2050 there would be a largely carbon-free heat supply, due to a combination of reduced demand and energy efficiency, as well as a massive increase in the use of renewable heating. All suitable cavity walls and lofts would be insulated, as well as up to 40 per cent of homes with solid walls. Behaviour would change, so that people turned down their thermostats by one degree and switched off heating.
VERDICT
The aim of 11 per cent renewable heat by 2020 is very ambitious and will be difficult to achieve. Particularly challenging will be persuading people to change their habits to agree to use non-conventional low carbon technologies to heat their homes, such as solar power, biomass boilers or heat pumps. There could also be difficulties encouraging take up of new technologies at the same time as tackling fuel poverty.
TRANSPORTPLAN
Transport would be almost entirely carbon-free by 2050, and there would be significant progress by 2030. This would be achieved by widespread adoption of electric cars and vans, and significant use of electric rail networks by 2050. By 2020 there would be a battery charging infrastructure network in cities and towns. There would be an increased use of biofuels, the speed limit could have reduced to 60 mph on motorways and driving techniques would have become more efficient.
VERDICT
The aim of transport becoming carbon free is hugely ambitious and the ways that this would be achieved have come in for criticism. The plans do not include any reduction in the SNP's road building programme, and there is little mention of efforts to prevent use of cars and transport in the first place by encouraging walking or cycling. There is a dependence on technology to solve the problem and this could fail. It could cost a huge amount to make the shift to green vehicles.
RURAL LANDPLAN
By 2050, 25 per cent of Scotland would be covered by forest, to encourage sequestation of carbon. There would be a reduction in emissions from agriculture. Planting rates of new trees would increase to 10,000 to 15,000 hectares per year by 2015. Anaerobic digestion would be developed to deal with agricultural waste.
VERDICT
Current targets for planting new forest have not been met in recent years, meaning it could be extremely difficult to increase forest planting to up to 15,000 hectares a year. A recent plan by the SNP to lease off areas of the forest estate to pay for new planting met with huge opposition and were shelved. It could also be extremely difficult to reduce emissions in the agricultural sector. It will require a widespread change of farming practices.
WASTEPLAN
By 2050 there would be almost zero emissions from landfill. By 2025 no more than 5 per cent of municipal waste would go to landfill. Measures would be taken to increase recycling and there could be a ban on biodegradable waste going to landfill. Instead there would be an increase in the use of anaerobic digestion to deal with biodegradable waste – an emissions-free technique.
VERDICT
It is very ambitious to aim for zero emissions from landfill waste by 2050. Currently the majority of waste is still sent to landfill, and a new waste infrastructure will be needed. It will also require a change in habits from the public, so that more rubbish is reused or recycled.
