IT HAS fired up America. Traditionally of interest only to political anoraks, the vice-presidential selection process is creating big waves on the other side of the Atlantic.
The unprecedented interest is easily explained: this year the vice-presidential nominee needs to do serious work. Both Barack Obama and John McCain need VP nominees who will deliver electoral dividends.
"While no-one will admit it publicly, the fa
ct of the matter is the candidate or a lot of people around the candidate are asking that question, 'Who will help us get into the White House?'" said historian and speech writer Richard Norton Smith.
McCain has two mountains to climb. The first is his age. If elected, the 72-year-old senator will be the oldest first-term president ever. If President McCain died in office, or stood down after one term, then whoever he chooses as his VP candidate would then be the most powerful leader in the world.
McCain has another problem in his sometimes strained relationship with his own party. While it may be an electoral asset to have some distance from George Bush, McCain also has some difficulty connecting with heartland Republicans.
One solution, proposed by many right wing commentators, is for McCain to select a candidate who is sound on the issues that most matter to traditional Republicans; abortion, stem cell research, gay marriage. The other option would be to choose a candidate who emphasises McCain's independence in an attempt to reach out to the undecided.
Obama faces a different set of challenges. To counteract accusations that he is too young and inexperienced in foreign affairs, he might be tempted to go for an elder statesman figure, much as George W Bush's selection of Dick Cheney served to bolster his candidacy. As a black candidate Obama might be tempted to go for a VP who could deliver blue collar votes in traditionally Republican areas.
For all of these reasons the VP search, which in the past has been more about balancing geographical regions, platforms and personalities, is about raw politics this year.
The wrong choice of VP can make them more of a liability than an asset. The most famous VP turkey was Dan Quayle, selected by George Bush Snr to emphasise his connection with a new generation of Republicans but remembered now for his inability to spell 'potato(e)'. Other disasters include Geraldine Ferraro, chosen as Walter Mondale's VP candidate in 1984. Ferraro's husband was later revealed to be embroiled in a tax scandal.
To avoid such embarrassing revelations today, McCain and Obama have appointed high-powered search committees to drive the all important selection process.
Obama's team, which includes Caroline Kennedy, daughter of John F Kennedy, and McCain's, led by former counsel to Ronald Reagan, Arthur B Culvahouse Jr, are scrutinising the personal, financial, political and criminal backgrounds of favoured candidates. They are hunting for skeletons. The search for the vice-president has never been more professional, or more important.
Republican front runnersJoe Lieberman
Selecting former Democrat senator Joe Lieberman would send the message that the McCain ticket was the natural home for bipartisan, independent or undecided voters. Lieberman, 66, backed McCain over any of the Democrat hopefuls and was denounced by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as "irresponsible" for his attacks on Obama. Lieberman stood as Al Gore's VP candidate in 2000 and for the Democrat nomination for president in 2004.
Pros: Emphasises McCain's independence and hawkish line on Iraq.
Cons: Do two independent-minded old guys on the ticket help? As a practising Jew, Lieberman does little to help McCain get Christians on side.
Tim Pawlenty
Until this summer Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty was most famous for his mullet hairstyle. Now the mullet has gone, in a move widely seen as intended to make the ambitious Republican more acceptable to the TV cameras, and to John McCain. Pawlenty is a young governor, at 47 the same age as Obama, and is part of the next generation of Republican leaders. With the Republican convention being held on his home turf this year, in Minneapolis St Paul, Pawlenty will have a national platform, and has already landed a front-page profile in the New York Times.
Pros: Young with executive experience. Looks fresh, especially with new hairdo.
Cons: No national name recognition. Could his relative youth make McCain look even older?
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney, the multi-millionaire former governor of Massachusetts, could provide McCain with business credibility. A Mormon, Romney's religious background upset Christian conservatives, but he might be more vulnerable to the criticism that he is "Mr Layoff", turning businesses around by sacking workers. Though he won't be able to deliver liberal Massachusetts, he could help with his home state of Michigan. And, at 61, he looks presidential.
Pros: Business background and looks suitably 'presidential'.
Cons: A Mormon – which still provokes distrust in the American heartland. McCain was said to have disliked him in the primaries – but who said President and VP have to like each other?
Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee aimed to be the second governor of Arkansas to reach the White House after Bill Clinton. The former Baptist minister, 53 this month, lost nearly eight stone after being told by his doctor that he would be dead within a decade from type II diabetes. Huckabee has a folksy charm which could contrast well with the occasionally volcanic McCain. His Christian background could cement the shaky relationship between the senator and the evangelicals.
Pros: Christian, reassuring to the Republican heartland on hot button topics. Tested in primary season so skeletons unlikely to emerge.
Cons: Does McCain need somebody from another southern state?
And the other Republican contenders: Florida governor Charlie Crist, a long-time bachelor, made a surprise announcement this summer; he is to marry the owner of a Halloween costume company. At 52, Crist could balance the ticket. Another is Bobby Jindal, the Louisiana governor, a 36-year-old whizz kid with a reformist streak, and the only Asian Indian American governor. Other names include Tom Ridge the former secretary of homeland security, though Ridge is pro-choice. Condoleezza Rice would gain kudos for McCain for selecting a black woman. General David Petraeus has also been in the frame, though he may be seen as tying McCain too closely to one policy in Iraq.
Democrat front runners Evan Bayh
The senator for Indiana was one of the Democrats who came out most strongly for the war in Iraq. Bayh is handsome, moderate, relatively young at 52 and the father of 12-year-old twins. Nothing about him seems likely to frighten the horses, but after a few weeks in which his name has been widely touted as an Obama nominee, there are signs that the proposed nomination is not going down well with activists. A Facebook group, "100,000 Strong Against Evan Bayh for VP", was recently launched which lambasted the Senator's stance on the war.
Pros: A key Hillary supporter whose selection could heal party wounds.
Cons: Pro-war, bland and has outraged grassroots Democrats.
Joe Biden
The senator from Delaware is chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and one of the Democratic Party's most distinguished voices on foreign affairs. The 66-year-old competed in the primaries, but ducked out after getting a humiliating 1% in Iowa. A famously windy orator, Biden is best known in the UK for appropriating Neil Kinnock's "why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to go to university" speech.
Pros: Experience, foreign policy credentials by the bucket load.
Cons: Comes from one of the smallest states in the nation. As a Washington insider, does he have the 'wow' factor?
Kathleen Sebelius
Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius's finest hour came in May 2007 after the town of Greensburg was wiped out by a tornado. She pointed out that the state lacked the manpower to respond adequately because its National Guard resources had been rerouted to Iraq. By tying the area and international affairs together the 60-year-old delighted local Democrats and looked like a hometown champion ticking off an incompetent president. A pro-business Democrat with moderate policy positions she has championed Obama's candidacy from the start.
Pros: Moderate, strengthens Obama in a key state and could deliver Republican waverers.
Cons: Could Obama select a woman who isn't Hillary without alienating her supporters?
James Webb
Senator Jim Webb of Virginia comes from a distinguished military lineage. He served as Ronald Reagan's navy secretary and has made a long political journey to become a Democrat politician. He is the author of Born Fighting: How The Scots-Irish Shaped America, which valourises the experience of poor Scottish and Irish immigrants to the US. His moderate policies and rock-solid military credentials are seen by some Democrat strategists as a dream combination, melding blue collar appeal to Obama's intellectualism.
Pros: Imaginative and unexpected choice.
Cons: Has been married three times. Says he isn't interested in the job.
And the other Democrat contenders: Hillary Clinton's selection as VP is looking unlikely, largely because of the damage she did during the nomination race. Timothy Kaine, the Virginia governor, has been subject to a "deeper dig" by Obama's vetting team. But with former Virginia governor Mark Warner being chosen to deliver a keynote address at this year's conference, has Kaine been overlooked? If Obama goes for a warhorse then it might be Sam Nunn's moment: the former Georgia senator has regularly been mentioned as a Democrat VP. Senator Christopher Dodd or retired general Wesley Clark could fulfil the role, and even Senator John Kerry or former Vice President Al Gore have been mooted.
