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New figures show steep fall in house prices

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Published Date: 06 November 2008
HOUSE prices dived by a record 15% during the past year, wiping nearly £30,000 off the average home's value, Britain's biggest mortgage lender said today.
The value of property tumbled by a further 2.2% during October as the market continued to be squeezed by the mortgage drought, Halifax said.

The latest fall left the average home costing £168,176, down from around £197,698 in October last year.
The monthly fall was the biggest drop since May, and well up on September's slide of 1.3%.

Annual house price inflation, which measures prices during the previous three months compared with the same period a year ago, also dropped to a new record low of 13.7%.

Martin Ellis, Halifax chief economist, said: "Housing market conditions remain challenging in the face of the significant pressures on householders' incomes and the reduction in the availability of mortgage finance since last summer."

But he added that housing affordability was improving "significantly" with the house price to average earnings ratio dropping below five for the first time in four-and-a-half years.

This key affordability measure has now fallen by 16% from its peak in July last year, when house prices were 5.84 times higher than average earnings, to stand at 4.92 in August.

The group expects the ratio to continue to ease towards its long-term average of four as house prices fall further.

Halifax also said market activity was showing signs of stabilising, with the number of mortgages approved to buy a house remaining broadly unchanged in September for the third month in a row.

The figures are in line with those reported by Nationwide Building Society last week, which showed house prices dropped by 14.6% during the past year, losing 1.4% of their value in October.

The latest data comes hours before the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces the result of its two-day interest rate setting meeting.

It is widely expected to cut the base rate by at least 0.5% to 4%, with many economists predicting a 1% reduction as the economy continues to worsen.

But homeowners hoping to see their mortgage rate fall are likely to be disappointed, with the majority of lenders not expected to pass on the reduction in full to their standard variable rate customers.

The problem for lenders is that although the official cost of borrowing is falling, inter-bank lending rates remain stubbornly high, leading to higher mortgage rates.

These higher rates, combined with the increasingly high deposits most lenders now demand, are offsetting much of the benefit of house price falls for people trying to get on to the property ladder.



The full article contains 456 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Alan B,

06/11/2008 10:25:25
Browns incompetence coming home to roost.
2

JenJen,

06/11/2008 10:34:50
Can you explain your comment?
3

ccc,

06/11/2008 10:49:23
"The group expects the ratio to continue to ease towards its long-term average of four as house prices fall further."

Edinburgh:

Average Salary 30k~
Average House 202k~

Long, long way to go. Also remember in Scotland we are about 4-6 months (ish) behind the UK as a whole.

Should also be noted that booms tend to overshoot on the way up and undershoot on the way down. If that goes as expected then expect Edinburgh average prices to be nearer 100k in a couple of years. (Depending on inflation etc..)

As for the rest of Scotland it is very simple. Places that have seen smaller rises compared to local wages will see smaller falls - and vice versa.

Good news for anyone wanting to save up a deposit and buy their first HOME. Good news for anyone in a home wanting to move to somewhere larger.

Bad news for anyone wanting to downsize and 'pocket' the profit. Bad news (In the short term) for EA's, developers, property speculators and anyone else involved in the business.

Overall good news in my opinion.

4

ccc,

06/11/2008 10:56:53
"These higher rates, combined with the increasingly high deposits most lenders now demand, are offsetting much of the benefit of house price falls for people trying to get on to the property ladder."

There is something called patience..............

As prices come down deposits come down. Deposits are a percentage remember. This will not happen overnight of course. In the short term lenders will continue to keep their LTV ratios low until they feel the market has bottomed out.

Best thing a first time buyer can do is save save save and plan to buy when the house you want becomes affordable and you have the deposit required.

Worst thing a first time buyer can do is get involved in any shared equity schemes. They are simply a scam IMO.
5

JenJen,

06/11/2008 10:59:22
Thanks ccc - that's kind of what I was thinking and why I asked #1 to explain the point. It isn't all bad news.
6

Alan B,

06/11/2008 11:03:30
#JenJen

I take it you are referring to my comment.

Brown as anyone with any insight into economic knows has been pretty incompetent as a chancellor running the economy for the last 10yrs.

Brown has failed to deliver on most of the basic fundamentals of running a solid prudent and stable economy. The main failures are:

1)failed to control run away house price inflation.
2)the massive house price inflation has lead to unprecedented personal debt.
3)the massive mortage growth to fund this massive inflation has lead to much of the problems with our banking system. This is the main driver that lead to banks over using the credit markets to fund this mortage lending.
4)He also has recorded huge public sector deficits in good economic times breaking and fudging his own golden rule not to borrow over the economic cycle. Economists have been going on about this since 2004. Even the EU have been taking Brown to task for irresponsible deficits breaking or close the limit of the stability pack rules of 3% deficits during good economic times.

As such an economy built on consumer credit and not proper organic growth was always going to hit the buffers sometime. The art of running an economy is not to run it for short term political gain but ensure that we are in a health fundamental position when the global economy hits choppy waters as it will from time to time. We are in a complete mess. We are expected by international economic bodies to be the worst hit of all G7 countries and will suffer a deep recession.

As such the reason for falls in house prices like this are the fact that house price inflation was allowed to be so rampant for so long. We should have learned the lessons of the early 90s. Also it is a consequence of the recession that we are not moving into. Much of it caused by economic incompetence by Brown.
7

ccc,

06/11/2008 11:07:45
No probs Jen Jen. Totally agree with what Alan B says too.

Brown is central to this mess. His constant blaming of the US for everything is really quite tiresome.

He was happy to brag about London being the "World Financial Capital" for the last 5 years. Now all of a sudden all these financial problems belong in the US !!

How convenient.

We have our own house price bubble. We have our own credit bubble. We have our own banks trading dodgy financial instruments like RBMS's etc..

The US has been central in this whole mess. However the UK is jogging along hand in hand.
8

Alan B,

06/11/2008 11:13:33
#ccc

It would have been much better to control house price inflation in the first place rather have a massive restructuring like this.

Also while i agree with you house prices are over valued your logic of good and bad news is a bit simplistic.

The massive fall in house prices is being caused by the mess of the economy.

As such those that are hit by this recession with redudnancy and (mass) unemployment will not think it good news. Those who cannot get a job will not think it good news. Those whose income is badly hit will not think it is good news.

The falling house prices are not just about falling house prices but an economy which is falling like a house of cards because of gross mismanagement.

Also with specfic good/bad news for home owners. This recession has brought a stop to house building as such it will not help rectify our poor housing stock. Not help supply problems etc. It will alos not be good news for those that lose their jobs or whose income is badly cut and hence lose their homes to repossession. It will also not be good news for those whose house falls bellow the value of the mortgage and hence lands in negative equity. That in itself will could cause many just to hand the keys back the bank and precipitate the banking crisis we are now seeing. Part of this banking crisis is a fear the house market lending is not solid. As such it will not be good news for the tax payer bailing out these banks.

It would have far better to control house price inflation. Controlling inflation is one of the most basic tenants of economic management. And having steady growth.
9

Alan B,

06/11/2008 11:14:13
#7 ccc

Agree
10

ccc,

06/11/2008 11:20:31
Alan B

"It would have been much better to control house price inflation in the first place rather have a massive restructuring like this"

Totally agree. In fact in Browns very first budget speech in 1997 he said the following:

"I will not let house prices get out of controland risk the financial stability of theis nation"

If only he had taken his own advice....

Still - it has happened now so not much can be done other than letting it run it's course. I do agree that numerous areas will be hit by this as the whole economy is in a mess. In the long term though a return to sensible house prices is good news. How we get to that point is another matter !!
11

Alan B,

06/11/2008 11:21:25
#JenJen

If you want an philisophical economic argument for my critism of Browns economic management look at it the tenants of monetarist economic management.

One of the keys to managing an econony is controlling the growth of the money supply which into days world means controlling the growth of credit.

If Brown had controlled the growth of credit ie mortgage lending, house prices would not be so overvalued and consumer debt would not make the whole economic so vunerable.
12

Alan B,

06/11/2008 11:22:23
#10 ccc

Agree again. Unfortunately I think it could be abit of a painful ride.
13

Yada,

06/11/2008 11:38:53
Some of us had doubts about Brown 10 years ago though not being economists we sort of trusted he knew what he was doing.
But the more he rattled on about Prudence the more some of us were reminded of the couplet: "The more he spoke of his honour, the faster we counted the spoons"! Not to mention talking about "the end of boom and bust" and "the economic cycle" in the same breath. What is the economic cycle except boom and bust? The only question is how much boom and how much bust and if you borrow, borrow, borrow during the good times, the bust will be spectacular.
Ask Joseph and Pharaoh!
14

FrankJB,

Old York 06/11/2008 11:44:29
Controlling the credit to restrict House prices is easy to say. However, my recolection of the past five years at least is that everyone including the media has been pleading for the government Broon to help them with getting on the housing ladder - doing away with stamp duty etc. All that does is to increase prices even more. You give people more money via credit & people in an auction ('cause thats what house buying is)will be able to pay more. There was (& still is) a shortage of housing. Supply & demand means that people desperate to get a house will pay more if they can get the funding.

So the price of housing assets is always based on what people will pay - just like everything else in this world. Tesco will price all of its food etc on what people can afford. That's why it is still putting prices up but getting price decreases from its suppliers! Why? Because people will pay!

Life is just a big ebay auction and we forget that at our peril. That is the system in which we are living in.

If someone resticts credit, we can't pay as much. Its not the actual price of housing that has dropped - it's the maximum price that people will or can pay that has dropped. Hence people cannot pay as much so the price drops.

Same if you want to buy anything on ebay - if you can borrow more, you are able to pay more - if you really want what ever it is you bid on! Simple basic economics!

What could the government have done? Well put up interest rates is good to restrict the credit supply but then existing borrowers feel the pich and squeal.

Raise the mortgage rate for new borrowers? How? and who is to be first - as house prises will fall as a result. People have been screaming for interest rate cuts for the last 10 years. The government has simply listened to the people. Lets not forget that. This has the side effect of making people able to afford more - so the price of houses goes up and went up they did!




15

Jacqueline Hyde ,

On the shelf 06/11/2008 11:48:30
Many of the problems affecting house prices are no more than self-fulfilling prophecies touted by self-styled analysts working from a relatively tiny number of cases and an often misguided gut feeling. There has been a world of difference between the housing market in Scotland and that in the South East of England (the downturn in Scottish prices only started to appear during this summer) yet these pundits have continually published generalisations as though the were universal fact. The huge and altogether misguided publicity that the Scotsman, for example, has given these so-called reports has done no more than throw petrol on to what was a small spark.

Anyway, only a fool would listen to anything said by HBOS after the revelations of the last few weeks.

BTW, has anyone else noticed how often HBOS ATMs run out of cash these days - and how long it takes to refill them? It certainly seems to indicate that there are still a lot of serious problems there.
16

The Strategist,

06/11/2008 12:03:55
The BoE has just reduced the interest rate by a huge 1.5% which is a clear indication that the MPC believes the economy is in deep poo.

If you're a saver this is very bad news.
17

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 06/11/2008 12:11:37
A few terms that have become common in the US during their housing crisis, that may become common in the UK as it experiences the same.

Short Sale - When the homeowner is forced by the bank to make up difference between the selling price and existing mortgage.

Jingle Mail - An expression used by bankers to describe when a homeowner mails them the keys and walks away from the property.

Taking the house with them - This is when an angry homeowner in foreclosure rips out all the fixtures, wiring and plumbing, rendering the house uninhabitable.
18

Liz,

Edinburgh 06/11/2008 12:13:43
#16
I think it is very bad news for all of us. It comes across to me as a desperate panic measure to try to rescue an economy that is so deep in the poo that the outcome is unlikely to end well. Inflation and the value of the pound are going to hit us all badly.
19

Alan B,

06/11/2008 12:14:57
#FrankJB

"So the price of housing assets is always based on what people will pay"

I would turn that round and say the price of housing is based on what people can borrow.

Supply and demand.

However particularly in Scotland where there is an abundance of land then lack of supply should not be the issue that it is in the south east of england.

Also it was Brown that increase stamp duty so he has been happy to tax just not willing to take decision necessary for basic economic management.

I have also seen more articles from the media about the over valued price of housing and the effect that has on people trying to get on the housing market than people the media asking for silly lending levels.

You are correct Brown could have allowed interest rates to help control house price inflation. By not moving to an inflation target of cpi which does not include house price inflation in the government inflation target basically allowed uncontrolled house price inflation.

However what i would suggest is
1)control of credit growth via lending rules based on mutliples of salary and some level of deposits.
2)and also stricker capital requirements on banks so so much of their lending is not on the global credit markets but on deposits. Would also mean they would not be in such difficulties now.

You may also want to look at the whole buy to let market. This reduces supply for owner occuppied premises. Much of the buy to let market is based on buying with interest only mortgages and using rent to cover these payment. Then making a killing based on the 15/20% a yrs house price inflation.

The mess of pensions also encourages the buy to let investment.

The whole supply side must also be dealt with.
20

Alan B,

06/11/2008 12:17:30
#The Strategist

What i do not understand about a rate cut of 1.5% is why not sooner.

This is really an admission of a big mistake. Why not a few months ago? The uk has been badly behind the international curve.
21

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 06/11/2008 12:34:09
#21 Alan

Maybe the radical 1.5% rate cut is an admission that Brown, rather than save the world, has led the UK into the abyss.

Pound - US Dollar parity don't look to far away.
22

Alan B,

06/11/2008 13:09:40
#KampungHighlander

Aye should have bought dollars when they were trading at £1 to $2.

23

FrankJB,

Old York 06/11/2008 13:45:25
re #22,
If it does happen, then the whole of our economy wil change! Anything bought in from China? Bought in USD so the price will double. Anything bought in from India? Again, the price will double.

Overnight "cheap" imports will be a thing of the past. Toys / electrical goods / furniture etc etc will start to be made in the UK again as will many other things, which will be seemingly great for UK PLC -surely?

Hold on though, we buy our fuel (i.e. oil) in USD as well so that will double as well. Most food (etc) brought in from outside the EU is bought in USD so that wil also have a big effect!

Looks like interesting times to come then...........
24

madabbot,

far away 06/11/2008 13:57:50
not as easy or sinple for the uk to start supplying the good made in china , china or factory has closed and you need to restart the production, planning and supply chain for raw goods we cannot do that so we will pay the new price, less money for Mortgages lower house price.
25

UIlebheast,

Loch Nis 06/11/2008 14:17:53
AlanB & ccc

what utter nonsense - who on earth is going to build your homes at the prices your talking about.

The prices may well dip a little - but with no more houses being built the supply is going to dry up pretty fast.

Maybe we need to redefine the term "home" - because in your scenario it aint going to be a house- or even a flat - its going to be a one room cupboard - turning the clock back 100 years.

Alternatively - maybe you expect tax payer to subsidise 50% of house purchases !

I cant see that happening.
26

Alan B,

06/11/2008 14:32:20
#UIlebheast

If you read my posts you would see i have commented on supply.

House price inflation is what I was referring to. The idea you need massive house price inflation to build homes is daft.

Much of the price of new builds is do to with land value and not just the build price. The restriction on land value and massive house price inflation have forced up land values and as such the price of new builds more than the cost of actually building the place has done.

Also you take some of the price of property. A flat (many poorly made) new builds were on the market for about 200/300G in Glasgow.

Friend of mine that sold a couple of 2/3 flats in London were for over 600G.

How much do you really think that it cost to build a flat?
27

ccc,

06/11/2008 15:08:50
UIlebheast

Have a wee dig into how much your average new build Wimpey or Barrat house costs. I think I read somewhere recently it was way less than 50k. As Alan B points out it is the value of land that proves the major factor. When house prices fall land prices fall even more. It is exponential.

A queston for you:

Houses, in real terms, were about 50% cheaper in 2000 than they were today. Were houses being built and sold for a profit in 2000 ?

You can have £10,000 cash from me if the answer is no. :)

Yuo have simply been brainwahsed into thinking the prices people pay for property today are in any way normal. In reality they are so overpriced it is incredible. Have a look at my comment #3 for the figures. It is really very simple.
28

TheSmith,

06/11/2008 16:04:55
that article doesn't mention Scotland - only UK as a whole. Is it meant to scare us unnecessarily?
29

ccc,

06/11/2008 16:30:56
#29

"that article doesn't mention Scotland - only UK as a whole. Is it meant to scare us unnecessarily?"

Where does this belief come from that Scotland will somehow escape all this ? Where is the logic ? Also why are houses getting cheaper a bad thing ?

The simple fact is that any country with the following traits will be seriously hit by this mess:

High public debt.
High personal debt.
High reliance on the financial sector.
Inflated asset prices.
Inflated house prices.
Housing bubble over the last 10 years.
Years of lax lending practices.

I think it is pretty clear Scotland is going to be one of the worst hit places. If anyone can give me any reason to counter that I would be grateful. I can see nothing but down for Scotland.
30

UIlebheast,

Loch Nis 06/11/2008 17:01:15
ccc

Not as green as you think and your question about buildings costs as misguided - regulations today require a completely different approach to construction throough materials, Health and safety provisions etc.

Take a small (tiny) 3 bed house, construction of the house itself will be £100,000 minimum,N ote that the material costs account for half of this, which are outside builders control... then there is the site servicing, landscaping, etc that will take it up to £140,000 before land costs.(allowing a modest profit for the builder)

Now add on your land costs, professional fees, local authority fees and contributions, etc etc.

I doubt you'll creep in much below £200k

Youll have to build your own house I'm afraid cos you wont get me working for free in the cold and sleet of January !





31

Banana Heid,

Ayrshire 06/11/2008 17:01:39
If things keep going the way they are we will all be able to buy houses for about a tenner...
32

Evan Owen,

Uppergumtree 06/11/2008 17:10:22
I'd better remortgage so I can buy all those £10 houses.
33

Alan B,

06/11/2008 17:19:53
#30 ccc

Agree completely

But it would be nice if the scotsman could have outlined the specific scottish situation along side the whole of the UK. A regional breakdown of scotland would also be good.
34

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

06/11/2008 17:45:51
Even in the normal 18-year housing cycle, the house price/earnings ration has usually bottomed around 3. That'd imply a further 40% fall from here.

However, this is the long credit cycle and that's likely to undershoot the 18-year cycle. I'm still seeing a 50% fall from current pricing.
35

Esther. Mexico.,

Mexico 06/11/2008 17:50:58
Enjoying all the comments here.
Maybe my dream of owning a little holiday apartment in the Glasgow area is not a pipe-dream after all.
If property prices continue to keep dropping there could be a rush of overseas expats just waiting for this opportunity?

We've watched in fascination as even the most modest of 'semi-detached' properties in the U.K. were commanding the price of a Mexican villa.
Perhaps that red sandstone apartment with a 'wally close' will one day be within reach.

36

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

06/11/2008 17:55:59
17: The main difference between the UK and the US is that we don't have "no recourse" housing loans. That means that where a reposessed house is sold for less than the mortgage, the bank can come after the borrower for the difference. They can do that up to 12 years later and provided they start proceedings within 12 years, they can continue them thereafter.

So it's not a very sound plan to rip out all the fittings since the vandal will pay for the damage in the end.

Similarly other debt can be "attached" to a house and recovered when that house is sold.
37

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

06/11/2008 18:02:14
The 1.5% cut in base rates today means that the MPC thinks we're going into deflation, however they care to couch the wording.

If we think house prices are falling hard just now, just wait until they're falling in a deflation.

Wages will also fall of course, though there;ll be resistance at first. That will make it harder for people to service their debts, and thus ratchet up anking pain and lack of credit even further.

As per my previous predictions, we can begin to see how we'll get to a position where credit will be neither offered nor sought and for housing, the deposit will become the price.
38

ccc,

06/11/2008 18:25:08
#31.

A small 3 bed house will cost over 140k to build before you include land !!??

I find that difficult to believe for a large housebuilder.

We have a "completely different approach to construction"

You are correct about that one. The construction standards today are shoddy to say the least. Timber framed construction is usual and it is not desiged to last. It is designed to be as cheap as possible.

140k to build a basic house. I find that Seriously difficult to believe.

Anyway it doesn't matter. Most houses have already been built. It doesn't matter what they cost to build. They are only worth what someone can pay for it. I really struggle how people have difficulty understanding this.

There are currently houses in the US being sold for $10.00. Yes that is right $10. So according to your logic this cannot be the case because they cost more than this to construct.

There are houses INCLUDING the land for sale in Detroit just now for $10.00.

Sorry - but your logic and argument fails. A house is worth what someone will pay for it. How much it cost to construct means very little.
39

Dave in the US,

St. Louis 06/11/2008 21:30:15
I hope this isn't a factor in overextending UK or EU credit or mortgage debt, but...

Here in the USA there are many folks who fancy that the end times are upon us. They borrowed heavily against the equity in their homes, figuring that the world would end, and they wouldn't have to pay back. They ran up huge credit card debt, too, on the same assumption.

Those would be the people who were energised by Sarah Palin, and many who liked Bush because he was "born again". We know them as the religious right or evangelicals; they're ruled by fear, and they were also eager to strike at Moslims for the same reasons radical Moslems hate Christians.
40

Indespair,

06/11/2008 22:24:17
Have a look at the margins the builders expect now - 30% not out of the question!
41

techpunk,

07/11/2008 09:56:05
"A small 3 bed house will cost over 140k to build before you include land !!??

I find that difficult to believe for a large housebuilder."

From Building Cost Information Service, current costs, expect to pay a mean of £925 per sqm. Small 3 bedroom house is say 90sqm?...circa 83k for building costs then. add on what you like for prof fees, land costs, clearance and services. i'd say 140k sounds a reasonable estimate. then you can add developers profit at (very most) 10%. this house would need to sell at circa 155k in order to even get off the ground.

"The construction standards today are shoddy to say the least. Timber framed construction is usual and it is not desiged to last. It is designed to be as cheap as possible."

absolute nonsense. http://www.uniquetimberframe.com/faq.htm

"They are only worth what someone can pay for it".

"How much it cost to construct means very little".

really?...

you are getting your wind-pipe and your rektum mixed up...AGAIN!

 

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