McCain facing Sunshine State chill

IN HER first general election, Magdalena Gutierrez was keen to follow her parents' lead in casting an early ballot for her choice of president.

Yet as the 21-year-old student entered the polling booth at a library near Miami on Wednesday – Americans are allowed to vote early if they wish – another family tradition fell by the wayside.

Ms Gutierrez, one of a growing and increasingly vocal generation of Florida's young Cuban-Americans, chose to turn her back on the hardline Republican politics synonymous with the exiles' community and vote instead for the Democratic Party's candidate, Barack Obama.

"I want a president who's going to stand up for me, my 15-year-old sister and my friends, and who has something to offer my generation," said Ms Gutierrez, who was born in Miami in 1987, five years after her father fled Fidel Castro's Cuba.

By itself, her vote will count for little, given that she accepts both her parents are supporting John McCain. But there are indications of a wider seeping of support from the Republicans' traditionally solid power-bases in Florida, leaving the party's outlook in the Sunshine State looking just a little more cloudy. Mr McCain knows that if he is beaten here, he cannot hope to win the White House. And the latest polls give Mr Obama a narrow advantage in a state carried by George W Bush in each of the last two campaigns.

The state carries 27 electoral college votes for whoever takes it – a large number that will be vital in getting to the magical US-wide figure of 270, the number that delivers up the White House.

Florida, of course, has history when it comes to presidential elections. Many Democrats are still bitter over the 2000 debacle, when thousands of votes went uncounted, they allege, and Mr Bush was eventually declared the winner by a Supreme Court ruling. The state will again be under the spotlight as a key battleground for other reasons – its unique and diverse racial make-up, and the expectation of a remarkably high turnout.

Some experts predict that 80 per cent of more than 11 million eligible voters will have cast a ballot by the time the polls close on November 4, inspired in part by a blitz of television advertising that saw Mr Obama outspend his rival more than three to one.

"No other state has quite the racial mix of Florida, the Cubans, Haitians, African-Americans and a large Jewish population, and that makes it unpredictable," said Gerry Willetts, a Republican supporter who has taken two weeks off from his office job to canvass for his party.

"The economy is different here, it's tourism based, and there are lots of seasonal residents who vote elsewhere.

"But we've got the same problems as the rest of the country, the foreclosures and job losses. Florida's important and for McCain it's a must-win. Obama might think he's won it but he shouldn't be so sure. John McCain's support is very solid here."

There are 1.7 million eligible Latino voters in Florida, 14 per cent of the state's total electorate. An ageing Jewish population is close to a million, based largely in southern Florida with its all-year warm temperatures.

But the tower blocks of empty condominiums along the waterfront from Miami to Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach, and thousands of "for sale" signs on houses inland tell their own story of an economic decline that has affected all parts of the community.

Unemployment in Florida is 6.6 per cent, half a point above the national average, and the 613,000 out of work in September was the highest for 14 years.

"Before the housing collapse, I used to work six days a week," said Brian Schwartz, 49, an electrical contractor who wires luxury apartments in Fort Lauderdale. "Now I'm lucky if it's two or three.

"We need a president who's going to sort out this mess, and I'm going to give Obama a chance. All the tax breaks are going to the oil companies and McCain wants to give them more? It's crazy. My only worry about Obama is his experience. He's flip-flopped on the war.

"But that's not what people are concerned about. We've got problems here that need working on."

Adelle Burlace voted for George W Bush four years ago, when her son was serving in the military in Iraq, but says she will switch her allegiance to the Democrats this time.

"Things are a lot different from 2004," said Mrs Burlace, 54, who lives with her retired husband. "I voted for Bush then because supporting the troops was the right thing to do. This time, it's about the economy and jobs. My son's home and out of the army, but he can't find work. He's moved to North Carolina with his girlfriend to try to find a job.

"It kills you living in Florida with the high property taxes and insurance. It's time for a change at the top."

Florida's younger voters, such as Ms Gutierrez, and 26-year-old Casey Knecht, who is studying for a career in hotel management, seem better informed about the issues than ever before. "I watched the debates, read the newspapers and compared the candidates' websites," Mr Knecht said.

"Obama came across better, and has better ideas than McCain. I don't know if there will be a job to go to when I finish college, but I think Florida has a better future with Obama."