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Heated debate as minister makes case for renewables



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First Minister's Questions: Salmond answers questions on the nuclear power issue.
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Published Date: 18 January 2008
SCOTLAND neither needs nor wants nuclear power stations, ministers claimed yesterday.
JIM MATHER, the energy minister, opened the setpiece debate on power by arguing that Scotland's needs could be met by non-nuclear means.

Mr Mather declared: "Our approach is clear – Scotland doesn't want or need new nuclear power. The facts are that we are already meeting a very large part of our energy needs from non-nuclear sources.

"We have massive potential for exploiting our significant renewable resources and we're also capable of reducing our reliance on fossil-fuel energy supplies, while making those clean."

Mr Mather also claimed research published yesterday by the Crown Estates indicated that a subsea cable down the east coast of the UK was economically viable, meaning renewable generation in Scotland could be more easily fed into population centres south of the Border.

"There's no energy gap; there will be no energy gap," Mr Mather insisted.

But LEWIS MACDONALD, for Labour, challenged this assumption.

He said: "When senior Scottish ministers argue that there is no energy gap, because over 90 per cent of energy consumption is met at a particular point in time by coal, oil, gas and renewables, and there is therefore no need to think about anything else, they are not just guilty of using selective statistics for their own ends."

Mr Macdonald said if the London government bridges the UK energy gap by the development of new nuclear power stations in the south of England, Scottish as well as English consumers will take electricity from the grid those power stations supply.

"So the SNP's portrayal of themselves as the great opponents of nuclear electricity is simply an illusion," he added.

"In fact by opting out of the Energy Bill, opting out of a common strategy for nuclear waste and declining to extend the principle of polluter-pays to nuclear power-station decommissioning, they are simply opting out of the real debate.

"They are also fundamentally wrong to suggest that the only energy or electricity that Scotland should produce should be the energy or electricity that Scotland will consume. They are guilty of talking down a major Scottish export industry and the jobs that go with it."

LIAM MCARTHUR, for the Liberal Democrats, said his party had made its opposition to nuclear power clear and that it was "unwanted, unsafe and uneconomic".

Mr McArthur told MSPs there was no "single, magic bullet" but options worth considering included clean coal, carbon capture and marine energy technologies.

"But as well as finding a resolution to the outstanding grid and transmission issues, more impetus must be given to efforts to bring forward the date by which this technology can start making a meaningful contribution to our energy mix," he said.

KENNY GIBSON, SNP MSP for Cunninghame North who argued the case for renewable energy, was challenged by Alex Johnstone, of the Conservatives, to say how he reacted to the decision to extend the lifespan of the Hunterston nuclear power station – and how he would react to any move to replace it with new nuclear generation on the site.

Mr Gibson said he had been "absolutely delighted" at the decision to extend its lifespan to 2016. "However, I have made it quite clear publicly – unlike my Labour MP, who shares my views but is reluctant to express them in the local press – that to spend more than a decade building a nuclear plant in order to generate electricity for 35-40 years, producing waste which lasts for thousands of years and will cost billions to decommission, is not appropriate," he said.

DAVID STEWART, Labour MSP for Highlands and Islands region, argued the case for hydro power and told MSPs: "Isn't it time for a hydro revolution?

"What work is being undertaken to develop the potential for new sites and developments? If the minister wants a campaign, can I suggest 'It's Scotland's water'?"

ROB GIBSON, SNP MSP for Highlands and Islands region, told MSPs: "The development of a Scottish energy strategy is central, to sit alongside the Scottish Government's approach to climate-change targets."

He added: "The security of supply that we can provide infinitely comes from the water, the air, the waves and the tides around our own shores."

Labour's JAMES KELLY, however, stressed the need for nuclear power to be part of Scotland's energy supply.

"It's essential we produce a secure energy policy that keeps the lights on, reduces consumption and carbon emissions and also tackles fuel poverty," the Glasgow Rutherglen MSP said.

"In that light, it's important that we have a balanced energy policy.

"Currently, in relation to electricity, the balance includes renewables, gas, coal and nuclear. That mix is important in order to protect us against future shortages and also changes in market conditions."

He added: "In terms of moving to the future, we shouldn't rule out any options. We have to consider what's required to meet Scotland's energy needs."

But ALISON MCINNES, a Lib Dem MSP for North East Scotland, spoke out against nuclear power. She told MSPs the UK government was wrong to press ahead with a new generation of nuclear power plants.

Instead, she said, the money invested in that should be put towards developing green-energy technology.

The full article contains 876 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Mercutio,

FALKIRK 18/01/2008 00:37:46
Whilst the prospects for wind and wave power are thrilling there is a possible danger in over hyping the potential of renewables which are still in the early stages of development, in order to justify the Government's anti nuclear energy policy.
2

Richardinho,

18/01/2008 00:43:01
I'd urge everyone to watch the video of Alex Salmond's speech in the parliament regarding this.

I personally am greatly concerned about this issue as everyone should be. I am not against nuclear per se, but I can see the value in renewables.

I was a little concerned that the government's rejection of nuclear was driven by atavistic SNP party ideology rather than pragmatism, but his statement has done something to reassure me.
3

An Beal Bacht,

18/01/2008 00:53:56
Labour have lost this one as well. Thank god - Nuclear is so wrong for so many reasons.

'LIAM MCARTHUR, for the Liberal Democrats, said his party had made its opposition to nuclear power clear and that it was "unwanted, unsafe and uneconomic".'

The LibDems are waking up from a long horrible nightmare.
4

Richardinho,

18/01/2008 00:54:43
If we do go down the renewable route it has to be whole heartedly.
No more nimbies stopping wind farms being built.
5

Royster,

18/01/2008 05:17:26
Massive potential is one thing, secure and stable supply is another. The SNP can't seem to distinguish one from the other.
6

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 07:36:42
Both sides are giving half the story as is often the case. Lewis MAcDonald is correct in that there is likely to be an Energy Gap in certain scenarios.

He is wrong in stating "are not just guilty of using selective statistics for their own ends". Thats exactly what he just did!

Also he said "are not just guilty of using selective statistics for their own ends". The SNP has never said this AFAIK.

As I have said before, Scotland is gearing up to export more Energy South than ever before. Scotland needs a large overcapacity from renewables to ensure it can provide all our energy needs MOST of the time. Its not economic to shut down generation when its not required in Scotland so will be exported.

Labour are correct in saying that means Scotland will export some power from its neighbours (partly Nuclear Generated, thats the choice the UK made) its how the Grid works.

Scotland will be exporting far more Energy than now so their is no Net Energy Gap most of the time.

Since Scotland will be exporting Energy to renewables to England,we will be reducing Englands needs for other power sources, including Nuclear. Its another North South divide except:
- This time its a divide that benifits both (I have not seen a good argument that England can completely avoid Nuclear, but lets not pretend its LOW CO2 in the long term)
- This time Scotland has a policy to its own benefit and not a policy purely to benefit those in the South.

Finally, If some of Labour are now calling for Hydro use to be maximised....Why of why did the not do so (especially small scale) after the recommendations from their own inquiries when they were in 'power'?

7

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 07:45:02
Sorry, in previous post, 2nd quote should have been:
Also he said"They are also fundamentally wrong to suggest that the only energy or electricity that Scotland should produce should be the energy or electricity that Scotland will consume"

"There's no energy gap; there will be no energy gap," Mr Mather insisted. This statement is deliberatly misleading also and totally depends if you look overall eg annually, or hour by hour.

A better question would be: Will Scotland need to import electricity from its neighbours some of the time? Also, what is the likely ratio of Export to Import?
8

Miss H,

18/01/2008 08:05:10
2 Richardino can I reassure you that the SNP is a very pragmatic party. If nuclear was necessary for Scotland we would support nuclear power. But it is not necessary, there are risks associated with it whatever people say and as Jim Mather pointed out the costs are unquantifiable.

9

Rulesbutnotrulers,

Federation, not separation 18/01/2008 08:32:37
Neither wind turbines nor nuclear, please.

The government must sponsor submarine turbines with the same zeal and effectiveness that Germany sponsors photo voltaic.

Britons have always relied on the ocean.
10

The Federalist (the poster formerly know as NAUON),

18/01/2008 09:36:55
I have serious doubts about renewables meeting the energy gap - not just in engineering terms but also the environmental impact of the schemes that would be required.

One thing I have noticed about the renewable deabte is that it has tended to focus on large-scale energy production - I'd like to see more work put into smaller home-based initiatives. For example, it has been estimated that in some cities such as Dundee upto 60% of households could have their water heated through solar energy.

I'd also like far more research and development done on energy conservation - that could mean that there would not be an energy gap to plug in the first place.

In the short-run I don't believe nuclear can be ruled out - that does not necessarily mean building new power stations but extending the life of existing sttaions until such time that renewables and conservation have made up the energy gap.

What is ultimately required is a comprehensive review of energy policy that considers all factors including renewables, nuclear and energy conservation.

11

Cauchy Riemann,

Wales 18/01/2008 09:37:20
Renewables at this time cannot meet consistent energy needs - (eg wind velocity can be too high or too low and so zero output). Denmark is plugged into the rest of the European grid, so variableness with wind speed isn't critical.

So wind power can only ever contribute a minor percentage to the Scotland. Dropping nuclear means a greater dependency on coal etc - which is fine by me since I'm not interested in CO2 emmissions.

12

AJM,

18/01/2008 09:45:32
Miss H I agree that the SNP has moved on manifesto commitments such as trams and sportscotland. But they are I think viewing any dilution of this one is a step too far, so we are back to it is an ideological point. Perhaps the SNP think that England will not let the lights go out in Scotland and will bail them out.
13

Miss H,

18/01/2008 09:54:19
12 Federalist

What is being discussed here is not energy - it is electricity. Energy is a much bigger issue.

Can I also provide you with some reassurance. The SNP is not completely stupid. Before we were elected policy was being developed by independent energy experts such as Professor Stephen Salter. All your points are valid and are actually part of the plan. It is not the SNP that presents the energy debate in terms of windfarms versus nuclear because it is not like that.

Now that we are in government we can draw on all the technical expertise of the industry as well as academia. There is no way that we are going to set ourselves up for a situation where Scotland will suddenly run out of energy at the same time that we are asking people to take the next step to full independence. That is not part of the plan.
14

The Strategist,

18/01/2008 10:11:26
#15 Miss H

Correct.. In actual fact the really big issue is liquid fuel supply not generating electricity. We can do the electricity generating thing provided the investment is available which of course being Scotland is always doubtful. But assuring liquid fuel supply is something that is concerning all of us in the energy industry.

Biofuel is turning out to be a bit of a damp squid because it's being realised we will never be able to produce enough of it, it's going to be too expensive and probably ecologically very damaging. Even so called second and third generation biofuels are looking decidedly "iffy" now.

Finding alternatives is difficult. Hydrogen if often talked about but the lunatics running the asylum are under investing in that as well. Hydrogen is also an agenda dominated by the fuel cell lobby which is a very interesting technology but who is prepared to pay for the cost of completely changing the automotive supply chain?

Interestingly, there is now more talk about some of the old fuels particularly methanol. Methanol is high octane and still used by the Champ Car Championship in the USA.
15

livilion,

livingston 18/01/2008 10:19:28
Hunterston A still hasn't been cleaned up and it could be another fifty years before it is.
These plants have a usefull life of about 25 years before the physics of intense radiation take their toll on the materials keeping them safe and secure.

Hunterston B is now becoming due to be taken out of service, or to become increasingly unreliable.

Torness these days spends more time being repaired that it does producing electricity and can no longer be relied upon for baseload generation.

So it takes between 85 to 100 years to clean these plants up, goodness only knows how long their spent fuel will have to be guarded and kept out of the environment and 'the wrong hands', and their usefull lives are only about a third of that sort of timescale.

We could be looking at clusters of redundant nuclear sites costing hundreds of £billions to maintain.

Yet £2bn is too much to pay to connect renewable sources off the West Coast to the National Grid?

On the other hand, what is it about wind turbines that they have to be painted white and stick out on the landscape like a sore thumb?

Why not paint them the same drab colours as electricity pylons, telephone poles, cellphone masts or a 'Wimbledon green' that isn't catching your attention from 20 miles away?
16

Phil o Brian,

18/01/2008 10:23:35
I think everyone agrees that renewables are the preferred solution. However, are they anywhere near ready? I noted that with the power outages of nuclear last year, that Scotland filled the gap with coal. Not the best solution.
Do we not need a mid term strategy that switches off coal and reduces gas, whilst finding out the technoligies that work. If I understand the numbers correctly, renewables cost twice as much to produce electricty as conventional systems.
Whats wrong with promoting local renewable schemes? Geothermal looks very promising. We could also save transporting power round the grid and losing 25% on the way.
Also, re the comment on Hydro. We looked at investing in a start up company to do small sacle Hydro in Scotland. There is a lot of research on it produced over the years. Most of the projects still to be done are either a) too small b) too remote or c) run dry and only produce at certain times of the year.
17

Alan B,

18/01/2008 10:28:12
#16 I think u are abit negative about Biofuels. Although ur last sentense seems to think there is some milage in it. Biofuels will never be the full answer but part of the solution in the medium term atleast. From what i have read the US could produce about 20% of it transport fuels from biofuel (ethanol). The EU has changed its cap policy over that last 20yrs to stop over production. Much of that production may be needed to be brought back online.

Hybrid cars will also be part of the answer. It is disappointing that the eu have done so little to promote this and have left it to the japanese and us consumers. The next prius version was talking about 113mpg. If 100mpg was made the minimum we should be able to reduce our transport fuel consumption by about 2/3. This would mean that biofuels would not be far of doing the rest.

One of the big supermarkets was talking about using electric vehicles. If this was roled out for all industry would reduce our pertol/deisel consumption.

Once hybrid vechicles become mainsteam then the performance is bound to improve. It also leads to options such as plug in hybrids where biofuels could end up as just a back up.

There is a technological revolution happening it is just governments are not really setting targets that would make this commercially available in a quicker time scale.
18

David MacVicar,

web, 18/01/2008 10:30:38
15 Miss H,

I agree with what you say but both Salmond and Mather are misleading the public with some of their statements (just as other parties are with their own statements).

They should teel it like it is. Scotland will be overproducing and exporting most of the time but not all of the time. This is no big Risk and I think the public are capable of unterstanding that and drawing the correct conclusions.

Actions speak louder than words. The upgrades to the 400KV interconnectors are in planning. The upgrades are for 2-way transmission = More export + more import.

I do have some concerns which are not covered well in existing documents, namely:

a)Financial risk of renewables based on UK policy on price selling to grid verses distance of supply.
b)Amazingly Scotland is currently not the most attaractive place for certain renewables in the UK due to planning restrictions in Scotland.
c)Also, most studies use 2020 as a benchmark but the situation between 2015 - 2020 is not clear.
* Tare general issues that would also apply to Nuclear, except c) since there would have been no New Nuclear till 2020 at the earliest in Scotland anyway.
19

livilion,

livingston 18/01/2008 10:35:03
18 Phil o Brian,18/01/2008 10:23:35

The Americans and Australians are ploughing money and resources into making coal 'the best solution'.

This country has centuries of secure coal reserves under our feet and we can still talk of 'lights going out'.

Gasification of hydrocarbons(coal, oil and natural gas) is a clean fuel source with huge potential.

If the UK or Scotland had invested the hundreds of £billions that nuclear has had we could be leading the world in a technology that the likes of India and China would cut your hands off to get today.

But then again I suppose hydrogen fueled power stations are no good for producing material for h-bombs.
20

livilion,

livingston 18/01/2008 10:45:30
19 Alan B,18/01/2008 10:28:12
What are your views on the various sources of biofuels?
I heard recently that the difference between eg sugar cane and maize as the raw material is like night and day.

ie The energy used in production of some fuel crops make their benefit to the carbon cycle dubious to say the least.
21

OscarMacApfel,

Dumfries 18/01/2008 11:22:13
'But ALISON MCINNES, a Lib Dem MSP for North East Scotland.'

This is galling, was Hamish ever taught that you do not start a sentence with a preposition?

Brian Wilson was a hoot on Newsnicht last night, wearing his two hats (directorships in both nuclear and renewable companies) and claiming that the proposed Crown Estate pipeline was a great example of unionism at work! All the time trying desperately to find something to disagree with the SNP Governments welcome response to the survey.
22

Rachel Young,

Edinburgh 18/01/2008 11:28:44
The National Audit Office says nuclear liabilities accrued by the government to date include £70bn for existing waste and £5.1bn in bailouts for British energy.

Perhaps if the renewables industry - research, development and construction - had enjoyed these levels of subsidies for the last 10 or 20 years, then the kinds of technologies we'd have now would be significantly more efficient. Instead, because the Labour government dragged its heels for so long we are now lagging behind and renewables are still underperforming.

And what's this nonsense about nuclear being 'clean'? Nuclear is definitely not ‘carbon free’ as a lot of people suggest. During construction and operation it will produces less CO2 than a coal or gas fired station, but if you take into account the whole life cycle, ores have to be mined, uranium has to be extracted and processed into fuel rods which then have to be transported to power stations. The building and decommissioning of plants have to be taken into account... It’s estimated that Australia’s largest uranium mine contributes 8% of Southern Australia’s CO2 emissions.

The Government’s own independent watchdog, the Sustainable Development Commission, has concluded that the reductions in CO2 that nuclear can make are pretty limited. Even doubling our nuclear capacity will only reduce emissions by 8%.

Uranium isn’t an infinite resource either. At the current rate of use, it’s estimated that there is only 50 or 60 years worth of high grade ore left. Lower Grade ores are harder to extract and refine. That doesn’t even take into account the ethics of uranium mining – the fact that the industry has been blamed for displacement of indigenous peoples, contamination and degradation of the environments around mines, and increased cancer rates in mine workers.

The arguments about finance are long and protracted – if you want to see actual costs per kWh then check out the finance section of this briefing - http://www.cnduk.org/pages/bi
23

Rulesbutnotrulers,

Federation, not separation 18/01/2008 11:29:22
Bio fuels, clean coal, nuclear. etc. are not renewables. Each takes a toll out of the environment.

More importantly, though, there is no need for them.

We are surrounded by ample renewables.

Each home can be adequately heated by bore-hole sourced heat pumps. Each home can be adequately (but not extravagantly)lit by photo-voltaics and batteries and hydro. Industry can be powered from submarine turbines. Air ships can be lifted by hydrogen/helium and electrically driven. Ships are already experimenting with forms of sails.

The answers are out there already!
24

Rachel Young,

Edinburgh 18/01/2008 11:33:20
(Sorry about the cut off link - that should have read as follows -

http://www.cnduk.org/pages/binfo/npwr06.pdf - or if you think a CND briefing will be too biased, check out the pages of the Rocky Mountain Institute - http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid305.php - it’s fair to say that nuclear industry estimates have been very optimistic. Some wind farms are already producing energy at less than 2p/kWh. Best estimates for nuclear have it producing energy at somewhere around 2 – 2.5p/kWh – that’s working at high load factors and with long lasting power stations – neither of which can be guaranteed.

Any nuclear power stations we start to build now aren’t likely to generate any power until 2020 at the earliest – in that time carbon emissions will continue to rise at a scary rate – and the funding will be going into nuclear instead of genuinely sustainable measures like energy efficiency, and developing moer efficient and effective renewables (you save seven times as much CO2 by investing the same amount of money in energy efficiency rather than nuclear).

All that is before you even get into the questions of safety or waste...

It's time to make a stand and start putting some real cash into genuinely clean technologies with enormous potential - surely any fool can see that.
25

livilion,

livingston 18/01/2008 12:36:24
#26 Rulesbutnotrulers,Federation, not separation 18/01/2008

Point taken, but the set up costs for these renewables would on the face of it put most folk off.

Coal is there in abundance, 200 years in the Forth Basin alone, and 4 or 5 times that again under the North Sea according to the Norwegians.

The technology is there to produce electricity from hydrogen(gasified coal and natural gas) at competitive rates and with a potential UK reduction of 36% (90% of 40%)in carbon output available, say by 2011-15

The renewables argument partly rests on the finite supply of hydrocarbons and uranium and the need to produce credible alternative energy sources.

However with about 1,000 years supply of coal on our doorstep, that need not be the main reason for persuing renewable electricity generation.

Remember hydrocarbons produce a lot more than just energy to make power turbines run.
eg the pc you are using now largely derives from hydrocarbons in its plastics etc.

I would suggest the total life costs of nuclear powered elecricity generation(carbon & cash) should be making that solution non-viable, but then nuclear power stations were never really about creating electricity 'too cheap to meter' was it?

Tony Blair and Scotlands Labour Executive's conversion to nuclear power came on the same road to Damascus that revealed the wisdom of abandoning their long held CND beliefs and embracing the one true deterent.

My compromise would be go for clean coal and gas utilising carbon capture meantime, use the carbon credits and profits won this way to subsidise research into promoting renewables technology and cost savings to eventually develop the renewables market to critical mass.
26

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 12:57:38
livilion (28): "but then nuclear power stations were never really about creating electricity 'too cheap to meter' was it?"

Certainly not in the 1950s, but a quick calculation implies that the primary purpose of nuclear power really has not been plutonium production for some time. A fission bomb requires roughly 3 kg of Plutonium on average, whilst a 1 GW nuclear reactor produces roughly 200 Kg of Plutonium per year, enough for some 40 5-kg bombs per year. In other words, we've had a large Plutonium production surplus for decades, from the point of view of bomb production.
27

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 13:08:26
Rachel Young (25): "The National Audit Office says nuclear liabilities accrued by the government to date include £70bn for existing waste and £5.1bn in bailouts for British energy."

Let's put these figures in context: current nuclear liabilities total roughly twice the money committed to Northern Rock since the summer, but will be financed over several decades. For another comparison, it's roughly twice the annual defence budget, whilst the NHS budget for 2007-8 is £90 billion, rising to £110 billion by 2010-11; see the Treasury report here

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/4/7/pbr_csr07_annexd2_197.pdf

Why, then, do you believe that £70 billion, amortised over several decades, is so expensive?
28

kimba,

18/01/2008 13:16:14
As prime minister of Britain, wish gordy would stop giving in to the snp,if scotland needs nuclear power to sustain it,s needs he should just order it,end of story.
29

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 13:27:06
Rachel Young (25): "£5.1bn in bailouts for British energy."

If this figure is correct, to date, then it's tiny. For comparison, the current yeary cost of incapacity benefit is £12.5 billion; see

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7173453.stm



Rachel Young (27): "and the funding will be going into nuclear instead of genuinely sustainable measures like energy efficiency, and developing moer efficient and effective renewables"

This need not be true at all. If energy costs are rising, due to fossil fuel prices, then the cost of all electricity increases, so implying an economic incentive for energy efficiency and more efficient renewables.

30

livilion,

livingston 18/01/2008 13:36:58
31 Fairfax,18/01/2008 13:08:26

No it's chickenfeed, petty cash if you will.I can't figure how the Treasury gets itself in such a tizzy when their books don't balance by a few £bns.

How long do you reckon we might keep Scotland running on this amount of pocketmoney?

More particularly, what difference do you think we might've made to clean hydrocarbon technology, carbon capture or renewables for this paltry sum?
31

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 13:36:59
31 On top of the capital debt write off and operational subsisidies pre privatisation?
32

livilion,

livingston 18/01/2008 13:39:41
32 kimba,18/01/2008 13:16:14
And you'll be volunteering your back yard to keep the spent fuel and the people to keep it safe for however many centuries it takes?
33

The Federalist (the poster formerly know as NAUON),

18/01/2008 13:41:59
"#15 Miss H,18/01/2008 09:54:19
12 Federalist

What is being discussed here is not energy - it is electricity. Energy is a much bigger issue."

Which is precisely the point I am making - you cannot look at electricity generation in isolation - it must be examined in the context of a wider energy policy - something that no government seems prepared to do.
34

kimba,

18/01/2008 13:50:42
ayrshire,heard from your mate BP,HOPE HE HAS A GOOD JOB.
35

Rachel Young,

18/01/2008 13:54:13
#31 and #33 - let's compare like with like - energy with energy. Knowing what nuclear spending is in comparison to defence or benefits is pretty irrelevant.

The UK Research and Development budget for renewables for 2001 -2004 was £18.5 million per year - plus £5-10 million from Research Councils. This was little more than the £16.6m yearly average spent over the previous 25 years and is tiny in comparison with the average £230m per year spent researching nuclear power over the same period...

36

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 14:02:50
38 LOL. ROTFL. How goes your "law suit" against him?
37

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

18/01/2008 14:21:46
The quality of the discussion in this webpage is far above that in the westminster parliament and the BBC and it is to the credit of the SNP government that they have created a situation where such well informed correspondents are making their contribution to the nuclear debate.I think well of the contribution by miss H in particular,she writes a lot of sense.I have learned one or two things myself from the correspondents.I am very pleased that Professor Salter has made an input into the SNP government policy as one of your correspondents mentions.With due respect to those who are supportive of nuclear power stations,let me suggest that the 'nuclear power plant GRAIL'(explained below)is one that they could now leave and embark on the 'green energy gold QUEST'. I have some sympathy for those who have been taken in by the Grail but in the 21century we need a new paradigm.Nuclear power is essentially a failed technology from the 20 century.
38

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 14:31:00
Miss H #15
"Can I also provide you with some reassurance. The SNP is not completely stupid. Before we were elected policy was being developed by independent energy experts such as Professor Stephen Salter. All your points are valid and are actually part of the plan. It is not the SNP that presents the energy debate in terms of windfarms versus nuclear because it is not like that."

I can't accept your reassurance because the work that the SNP policy is based upon is fundamentally questionable. The so-called "Scottish Energy Review" which the SNP commissioned, is wantonly skewed against nuclear power, and is dangerously optimistic about the realistic ability of renewables to deliver.

As an example of the anti-nuclear bias within the document, its main discussion on the CO2 emissions from nuclear power is based largely on controversial study authored by Storm van Leeuwen. This study claimed that the CO2 emissions from nuclear are in excess of 100g CO2 per kWh, and that the emissions would increase to a level similar to gas-fired electricity as uranium ore quality reduces. However the Storm van Leeuwen report is the only study of its kind to reach this conclusion, and it has been roundly criticised in peer review. All other studies (of which there are dozens) conclude that nuclear power has low CO2 emissions (sometimes less than 10g per kWh). This is accepted by the Sustainable Development Commission, who are hardly pro-nuclear, and it is also accepted by the IPCC which is why they endorse nuclear power as a suitabel technology to combat climate change.

The worrying fact is that the SNP's "Scottish Energy Review" made no serious attempt to balance the anti-nuclear views of the likes of van Leeuwen (even though the opposing view is supported by the majority of research in this area). The review cannot be trusted as a valid basis for formulating energy policy. For the SNP to do so was, to use your own words, completely stupid. It will come back to bite them.
39

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

18/01/2008 14:34:03
4 elements of the nuclear power station Grail.
Believers in the grail promise to achieve 4 things in building a new nuclear power station.
1 To build the nuclear power station on time.
2 To build a nuclear power station on budget.
3 To build it in such a way that no release of nuclear radiation into the environment will occur and that the plant will safely operate without health damaging effects.
4 That when the plant is old the sight will be returned
to something similar to when the station was started.
This is what I mean by believers in the nuclear Grail.

All these promises are made frequently by believers in the grail.IN PRACTISE THE GRAIL IS NEVER ACHIEVED,IT IS A FANTASY.IN THE NIGHTS TEMPLAR OF THE NUCLEAR GRAIL THESE BELIEFS ARE REPORTED TO OTHER BELIEVERS AS TRUTH BUT NEVER HAVE ALL BEEN ACHIEVED. I am embarking on a personal Quest to build some green energy capacity.
40

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 14:41:28
livilion (34): "How long do you reckon we might keep Scotland running on this amount of pocketmoney?"

The statistic is not for the small nation of Scotland, but for the large trillion pound GDP economy of Britain. Taking the cost pro rata for Scotland, it's a lifetime cost of £7 billion for Scotland. For comparison, Scotland's incapacity benefit bill is approximately £1.5 billion per annum.
41

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 14:48:08
Rachel Young (39): "#31 and #33 - let's compare like with like - energy with energy. Knowing what nuclear spending is in comparison to defence or benefits is pretty irrelevant."

It is comparing like with like: we have the economic choice of financial allocation from our total budget. We could, if we so wished, spend all of our defence funding on benefits, or, indeed, reduce our benefits bill. After all, if we were to cease nuclear power and weapons production of any form, then the money freed from this budget area would be spread across the financial spectrum.

42

,

18/01/2008 14:49:07
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
43

The Strategist,

18/01/2008 15:03:01
#39 Rachel Young

You're close enough with those R&D figures which are of course tiny but most of that was of course wasted because little of the outcome was commercialised and in fact a lot of the then DTI money went to oversea companies operating in the UK.. EON, Alstom etc ... as indeed it is now.

The problem is very clear.. Insufficient private sector funding is coming forward from the funding community (banks, VCs etc) to develop a reasonable scale renewables industry in Scotland. In fact one of the very few Scottish VC recently stated its intention not to invest in renewables technology because in essence it didn't provide a fast enough return.

This is not a nation that can rely on its financial services companies to support its industry.
44

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 15:08:35
Rachel Young (39): "This was little more than the £16.6m yearly average spent over the previous 25 years and is tiny in comparison with the average £230m per year spent researching nuclear power over the same period..."

On further consideration, I would argue that your comparison is not like-with-like: you are comparing the costs of research into several areas, none of which require large capital expenditure at the research stage, with the capital required to implement technology on a nationwide scale.
45

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

18/01/2008 15:28:00
The most recent example of the failure of the nuclear Grail is in Finland where the most recent new build in Europe of a nuclear station is already in breach of Grail claim 1 and 2, #43 apparently it is already two years behind and massively over budget. The French head of EDF energy has talked nonsense on the BBC recently claiming that French power stations are not subsidized ie they are economic. This is a lie because the French nuclear company has the largest debt of any company in the world. They will never be able to pay it back. What is this if it is not a hidden subsidy?If you let me borrow 500 Billion Euros I could also produce lots of so called cheap electricity!The snp govt energy review is a sensible well thought out policy and is more appropriate to the green energy treasure Quest we need to embark on in the 21century. Believers in the grail are losing their power. The largest industrial country in W.Europe ie Germany is phasing out nuclear energy and building steadily more green energy capacity.WE can all do this ourselves by supporting the snp review and if we can afford it,by installing solar heating panels personally and other forms of microgeneration as well as conserving energy through insulation. WE should ignore Browns plans and build our own green energy future.I calculate that my solar panel I will be installing this year from www.solartwin.com /.co.uk will pay for itself in 8 years. IF my power company supports new build nuclear I will switch to ecotricity. The nuclear grail is dying the green energy quest is growing.Claims in support of the Grail have been repeated for 50 years and never achieved,you show me one nuclear power plant anywhere in the world that has achieved the grail and I will eat my hat.Why is the Finnish plant so much behind and over budget?It is time these nuclear con men are exposed.Why is the most succesful industrial country in Europe a country that actually is a net exporter of industrial goods anti nuclear and building
46

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

18/01/2008 15:31:52
completing sentence in 49#. ...and building green energy capacity.ie Germany. Answer.Because this is a good idea.
47

Danepiper,

USA 18/01/2008 15:33:24
Anti-Nuke, Anti-Wind, Anti-Farming, Anti-AquaCulture, Not in My Back Yard!
Starve and Freeze to Death in the Dark.
Stupidity is it's own reward.
48

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

18/01/2008 15:37:53

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,
18/01/2008 14:34:03 removed spelling mistake in ie 4 site not sight
4 elements of the nuclear power station Grail.
Believers in the grail promise to achieve 4 things in building a new nuclear power station.
1 To build the nuclear power station on time.
2 To build a nuclear power station on budget.
3 To build it in such a way that no release of nuclear radiation into the environment will occur and that the plant will safely operate without health damaging effects.
4 That when the plant is old the site will be returned
to something similar to when the station was started.
This is what I mean by believers in the nuclear Grail.

All these promises are made frequently by believers in the grail.IN PRACTISE THE GRAIL IS NEVER ACHIEVED,IT IS A FANTASY.IN THE NIGHTS TEMPLAR OF THE NUCLEAR GRAIL THESE BELIEFS ARE REPORTED TO OTHER BELIEVERS AS TRUTH BUT NEVER HAVE ALL BEEN ACHIEVED. I am embarking on a personal Quest to build some green energy capacity.
49

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

18/01/2008 15:55:46
IN ANSWER TO 52#I am not an SNP activist, I merely support many of their objectives. SNP activist implies I am a member of the SNP who is active. IN fact I am not a member of the SNP but make no secret of my support for many of the well thought out policies of the SNP and look forward with 100% confidence to them achieving their goals of Scotland becoming an independent none-nuclear country building a prosperous green energy future.I can understand your error from some of the statements I have made but really I am simply interested in telling the truth,admittedly with my own biases.My independent judgment is that the SNP energy review is vastly superior to what I have heard coming out of London.I say this as someone who studied researched and taught physics for 25 years. My latest article concerning the physics collapse of the twin towers is published in the Scientific medical network "review" published by the Scientific medical network winter edition 2007 which tells you a bit more about me. Good luck
50

kimba,

18/01/2008 15:57:54
40.LOL, you think this is a joke,HE POSTED A PHOTO ON THE INTERNET OF MY SISTER AND MYSELF WITHOUT CONSENT,WHAT DO YOU THINK.
51

kimba,

18/01/2008 16:04:40
AYRSHIRE. WE NOW HAVE HIS ADDRESS,going very well.
52

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 16:07:18
#53 Dr Sutcliffe and the holy grail:

As regard point 1 & 2 of your "grail", developing countries are getting on with building nuclear power stations on time and within budget. This one in India has been built for less than one-fiftieth of the cost of a western plant.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/newNuclear/270207New_units_at_home_new_opporunities_abroad.shtml

As regards, point 3, no accident at a civil nuclear powerstation in the UK has ever caused a radiation death. The COMARE report in the UK concluded that there was no link between cancers and the normal operation of nuclear power stations. This particular aspect of your grail, "operating without health damaging effects", has been achieved many times over in the past 50 years. (In contrast, by opposing nuclear power you unwittingly promote fossil fuel use, which does kill thousands in the UK every year, via air pollution.)

With regards to point 4, the US has decommissioned over 30 reactors. For example:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/wasteRecycling/Connecticut_Yankee_decommissioning_complete_271107.shtml
It is perfectly feasible to return a site to greenfield.
53

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 16:22:41
Dr Malcolm Sutcliffe (49): "The largest industrial country in W.Europe ie Germany is phasing out nuclear energy and building steadily more green energy capacity."

Its' true that this is a German aim, but they're still overwhelmingly a fossil fuel generation, with a substantial nuclear generation minority. Consider, for example, their country profile on EarthTrends:

http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_826.pdf

Germany is a particularly interesting case because of their surplus fossil fuel electricity generation capacity, inherited partly from the former East Germany: it's this plant that has been supplying power to France.
54

Geomac 1,

Kinross 18/01/2008 16:23:10
Could I respectfully suggest that we all get out and buy ouselves a portable generator.
With the current bunch of numpties at Holyrood, it's an absolute certainty that the lights will go out - and soon!!
55

kimba,

18/01/2008 16:26:13
60. Good idea.
56

Geomac 1,

Kinross 18/01/2008 16:26:50
By the way, please note that the CAPITAL cost - per effective MW - is twice as much for wind as for new build nuclear (Royal Soc figures) - waste disposal for nuclear closes the cost gap but not by much.
Also, as Brian Wilson admitted on Newnight last night, wind energy developers get more from subsidies than they get from selling the electricity!!!
57

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 16:30:19
#49 Dr Sutcliffe says "The largest industrial country in W.Europe ie Germany is phasing out nuclear energy and building steadily more green energy capacity."

Well, to be precise by 2020 they are planning to phase out the nuclear powerstations that provide 30% of their electricity, and at the same time build new renewables that will supply 27% of their electricity. The obvious problem is that the renewables will not, in this case, be saving any CO2 at all. In fact their emissions are likely to increase and they are already higher than the UK (per capita). To compound their error, they also subsidise their coal industry by 2 billion euros per year. At least they subsidise renewables by 4 billion euros per year. (Meanwhile, their nuclear plants, which have paid off their capital, make a clear profit of 1 million euros per _day_, and are accused of profiteering...)

The Economist has more to say on this.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9595481

You are correct about the similarity between the German and SNP approaches. Neither make sense.

Instead we should maintain/replace nuclear, and use renewables to displace coal. Simple.
58

kimba,

18/01/2008 16:46:33
PEAT! we are not in the middle ages.
59

Liberal for life,

Dunblane 18/01/2008 16:48:44
So where does the SNP statements square with their colleague Bruce Crawfords opposition to another wind farm in the Stirling area, Is this just a case of NIMBY ism and a desire to appear popular to the opponents of the plan, or what?

I suggest we ask the Scottish electorate - would you prefer twenty "ugly" wind farms or a couple of nuclear power stations generating highly toxic waste to be built on our lovely countryside?

60

OscarMacApfel,

Dumfries 18/01/2008 16:52:39
Can he dig it? Yes he can.


Where are these photos of Kimba and her sister? I've got half a tumescent knobsworth of viagara stoating about in my system and I need something to deter me from further marital ghastliness.
61

kimba,

18/01/2008 17:11:01
71. The only people who are "mad" are the snp,kids doing homework by candlelight!
62

kimba,

18/01/2008 17:13:11
72. We are in the 21st century,get real, England we be miles ahead of scotland.
63

Liberal for life,

Dunblane 18/01/2008 17:20:10
#70 - I'd rather have an ugly view from my back window than toxic waste leaching into the water supply for millions of years - or is this the legacy you would prefer to leave your offspring?

As for Torness - its not painted horizon blue, thats the glow off the uranium you see. Get real!
64

OscarMacApfel,

Dumfries 18/01/2008 17:21:26
Kimba, where is this photograph? I MUST see it!!!
65

kimba,

18/01/2008 17:26:03
76. You really aren't getting this are you,we are in the process of a law suit.
66

OscarMacApfel,

Dumfries 18/01/2008 17:29:36
#77 Really, why?

Do fill me in, spare none of the gory details.
67

kimba,

18/01/2008 17:36:04
79. non of your business, if you break the law you will be punished.
68

OscarMacApfel,

Dumfries 18/01/2008 17:46:16
#81 Bof, tu parle francaise, ma petite bachi bazouke.

If you gargle lard chances are you'll get fat.

You are the law, Judge Kimba.
69

Liberal for life,

Dunblane 18/01/2008 17:48:39
#80 - naw, you are way wide of the mark sonny boy! Are you ready for your next lesson by the way as it seems your only view on life is the one out your bedroom windae?
70

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 17:52:32
Macgille leabhar #72
"Leave nuclear well alone untill such time as the technology is fully developed. As it is now it is like owning a car and having to store the waste from maintenace in your garage for ever more."

I think you are missing how much damage is caused by the "waste" from fossil fuel; and how little waste is created by nuclear power. Currently cars burning petrol and powerstations burning coal and gas release air pollution in the form of NOx, SO2 and particulates. This air pollution causes tens of thousands of premature deaths in the UK every year. (300,000 deaths in Europe per year; millions of deaths worldwide). In London about 1 person in 35 will die from the effects of air pollution. Note, I'm not even considering climate change issues here.

On the other hand, nuclear power creates very small amounts of waste. The amounts are so small that, from the very beginning, it has been possible to manage all the waste so that it never need pollute the biosphere nor cause a hazard to health. This would be impossible for fossil fuel. The amount of high level waste created by the electricity used by an average French family (80% nuclear) throughout their whole life is about the size of a golfball. The whole inventory of high level waste produced by the UK nuclear industry in its entire 50 year lifetime would fit in a room 11 metres cubed. In contrast with fossil fuel, this waste has never killed anybody.

The fact that nuclear waste is concentrated and manageable is a positive advantage over fossil fuel.

71

Danepiper,

18/01/2008 18:23:03
#87
Where in the world do those numbers come from? 65 million is a large enough number to attract the world's attention. Haven't seen any Mushroom Clouds around, have you? Other than Chernobyl (very poor reactor design) where have all the deaths come from? Proof, not pseudo science or imagination.
72

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 18:33:30
55 Kimba you dribbling morbid obesity

no one posted a picture of you. Everyone has more taste. Who would want to see a pic of some bloated 15 stone hairy oxstered harridan?

How do did you get his address, LOL. You said last week you had serevd a summons on him (his crime: you being a fat minger) now you just got his address?

73

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 19:00:54
#93 Meths
Or possibly a Pedro driven car.
74

Carlung,

Haddington 18/01/2008 19:01:44
As a civil engineer, I am amazed that only 8% of the potential Hydro-electricity generation in Scotland is being utilised. this form of generation is virtually carbon free and totally renewable. Go for it Scotland, and be a completely energy independent country
75

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 19:09:40
Methalions #87 quotes "Pollution from nuclear energy and weapons programmes up to 1989 will account for 65 million deaths."

In that case we're in trouble. The proportion of radiation we receive from weapons fallout is about 0.2% of our background exposure. The exposure from the nuclear industry is about 0.03% in the UK.
http://www.hpa.org.uk/radiation/publications/hpa_rpd_reports/2005/hpa_rpd_001.pdf

If that tiny proportion from weapons and nuclear power causes 65 million deaths, then background radiation will kill everybody on the planet several times over.

Seriously, even if the effects of radiation exposure were as suggested in your article (and mainstream health physics says they are many orders of magnitude lower), they are still less than the effects of fossil fuel. Using nuclear power instead of coal would still save lives.
76

Transparent?,

Scotland 18/01/2008 19:12:09
Just to remind you that we have terrorists in the UK and if they blow up a coal mine and/or a hydro-electric power plant, how will the SNP turn on the lights again - if the only electricity on offer is nuclear generated?
77

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 19:12:52
#95 Carlung
Conveniently ignoring the physics, as I still cannot get to grips with E=MC2, are there not insuperable environmental elements, e.g. salmon swimming uphill.
78

OscarMacApfel,

Dumfries 18/01/2008 19:19:50
#97 Trans-parent?

Which UK coal mine did you have in mind? There's none in Scotland...

#82 Meths hombre thanks for that photo of Kimba and his sister, I nearly spat a mussel through my snozbox when i opened it.
79

Carlung,

Haddington 18/01/2008 19:22:53
Van, nearly ever town or city in Scotland has a water reservoir in the hills above the towns. As the water flow down to service the population, it could quite easily turn an electricity generating turbine on its way. The sheer force of the total volume of water which descends daily into our water tanks is so large as to be almost incalculable.
The cost of these small hydro-electric schemes would be quite small as virtually all the required infrastructure is already in place.
80

Bermuda Bie,

Edinburgh 18/01/2008 19:26:12
Britain cannot survive without nuclear energy as any one who understand statistics can tell. As I recall, Scotland is still part of Britain.
81

Rodrigo,

Ashfield 18/01/2008 19:27:13
The Mathermatical calculation given here is sending the signal loud and clear, that the SNP favours the permanent flooding of vast unrepopulated areas [of outstanding beauty?] of Scotland - that this is the road they would take what's left of Scotland down, to produce Hydro-electricity - for "Export"! Interesting, but without a mandate from the Nation-builders of Scotland, which is distinct from an increasingly squalid set of policy-formulations emanating from the Executive. What is unsaid is now more important than what is being spelt out. Scotland WILL NOT be sold down the river. However, upriver, where the Dam blocks the Glen - well that's another matter.
82

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 19:30:58
Methalions #86, do you think we can sustainably continue to use fossil fuel for transport? No we cannot. Apart from any issues of climate change, or the fact that the air pollution kills thousands per year, the simple fact is that oil is a finite resource and it will get too expensive to use as a transport fuel.

As the anti-nuclear lobby likes to claim, nuclear power only provides electricity, and only about 20%-30% of our energy comes in the form of electricity at the moment. A large proportion of the remainder takes the form of transport fuel. I am not suggesting nuclear cars; but I am suggesting electric and/or hydrogen fuelled cars. Hydrogen indirectly requires electricity too. So if we are going to address the issues of transport emissions in the long term we are going to need a great deal more electricity. Now, renewables can perhaps provide 30% to 40% of our current electricity use. But they cannot realistically be expected to provide all of our current electricity, and they certainly won't provide enough to cover transport as well. We may need about double our current generating capacity.

Nuclear power can provide hydrogen and electricity for transport. (In fact, the trains in France are already effectively nuclear-powered because they run on nuclear electricity and consequently have close to zero emissions.)

And, on your final point, yes inner-city air pollution is worse than passive smoking, and worse than Chernobyl radiation for that matter.
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2458/7/49
83

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 19:36:57
#100 Carlung - round of applause for the century.
Appreciate your comments. It would, of course, involve the power generators getting on first name terms with Scottish Water, unless Scottish Water decided to show a bit of initiative, and have a crack at it themselves. Just a thought - at what point in the water distribution network of a given centre of population do pumps take over from gravity, and if the gravity process is interrupted by a series of turbines, would that then limit the supply to the pumps?
84

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 19:39:43
Current uranium reserves, according to 2003 data from the World Nuclear Association, are about 3.5 million tonnes, enough to last 50 years but only at present consumption rates. If large numbers of nuclear reactors were to be built to satisfy our ever-increasing demand for electricity, reserves of high-grade ore would be rapidly exhausted, leaving huge quantities of low-grade ores most of which would cost more energy to utilise than it would deliver in electricity. Even if useful uranium resources were found to be much larger than now estimated, it would only satisfy global demand for several decades and then the world would be left with huge quantities of radioactive waste with no source of energy to sequester it safely. [4]

According to detailed research published this year (2005), if all the world’s electricity, currently 55 exajoules (1018 joules) or 15,000 terawatt(1012 watts)-hours, could be generated by nuclear reactors, the world’s known uranium reserves would last only 3.5 years, if full dismantling costs of nuclear plants are included. [4]
85

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 19:42:27
103 Colin

if, as you contend, nuclear power is the cheapest (even including decommissioning and waste) no doubt there will be hundreds of examples throughout the world of nuclear power plants built without state subisdy (there are many non nuclear plants built privately of all types).

Can you point to one nuclear plant built without subsidy in the whole world?

Could you also confirm that when you said above nuclear is cheap even including decomissioning, whether the UK private operators of nuclear plants had all cpaital debt written off by the taxpayer (including all construction costs i.e free plants to operate) pre privatisation and will receive zero public subsidy for decommissioning elements or waste storage?
86

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 19:45:27
Amory Lovins, William Keepin and Gregory Kats (Energy Policy, December 1988) of the Rocky Mountain Institute have shown energy conservation strategies are far more effective in reducing carbon dioxide emissions than constructing power stations of whatever type. Nuclear power only produces electricity and can only possibly displace electricity plants, not the bulk of CO2 emissions which come from cars, trucks, factory smokestacks and home furnaces.

They also looked at the costs of nuclear versus improved energy efficiency and found every dollar invested in energy efficiency displaces 6.8 times more carbon than the same investment in nuclear power. “To the extent investments in nuclear power divert funds away from efficiency,” the study concludes, “the pursuit of a nuclear response to greenhouse warming would effectively exacerbate the problem.” Obviously it would be much better to replace investment in nuclear power with investment in energy efficiency, for example insulating drafty buildings or installing energy-efficient light bulbs
87

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 19:45:49
103 Bizarre argument. In the long term humanity will have to utilise no more than the harvestable amount of energy that falls on the planet in sunlight per day (which is vast, we only have "renewable" technologis to harvest a tiny fraction in soalr/ wind/wave etc). Nuclear is not renewable, and as Hen Brown points out, beyond 2030 the extraction of uranium from poorer grade ores will give nuclear a much larger carbon foot print than other "conventional" energy sources.
88

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 19:49:33
Even according to the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee’s sixth report, “the history of nuclear industry gives little confidence about the timescales and costs of new build’; that “nuclear can do nothing to fill the need for…new generating capacity… by 2016, as it simply could not be built in time”; that “uranium mines can only supply just over half the current demand for uranium, and the situation is likely to become more acute”; whilst “nuclear power can justifiably be regarded as a low-carbon source of electricity….the level of emissions associated with nuclear might increase significantly as lower grades of ore are used”; and that “no country in the world has yet solved the problems of long-term disposal of high-level waste. The current work being conducted by CoRWM [Committee on Radioactive Waste Management] will not be sufficient of address the issue”.

If media saturation has been dominated by a crisis of reaching the peak point in oil production – that less oil is left to find than we have already used – the proponents of nuclear power are silent about the nuclear industry’s equally fragile dependency on uranium and the associated insecurities.

As Jan Willem and Storm van Leeuwen state:

“It is inevitable that replacements for uranium fuel will be sought within the lifetime of any new nuclear build in the UK. It is also inevitable that as high grade uranium supplies decrease, the cost of nuclear power will increase along with nuclear CO2 emissions.” And that: “Once high-grade uranium ores are no-longer available, the nuclear industry will rely on uranium and plutonium from military and civil stockpiles. These will last only a few years, and questions remain about the net energy gain from reprocessing these materials. In the future, it is likely that the nuclear industry and governments will look to MOXfuel – a mixture of uranium and plutonium dioxides. In time, the nuclear industry hopes to develop fast breeder reactors fuelled by weapons
89

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 19:53:25
While it strives to sell itself as the environment friendly energy option, the nuclear industry seems curiously keen on escaping government regulation. It already caused concern when it started lobbying to lift regulatory constrains through the creation of a new energy agency, independent of government influence, to oversee its operation if a new generation of nuclear plants is to be built. The creation of such a body would free the industry from any kind of enforceable responsibility and enable artificial price hikes. The industry is also shaken by the example of the plant in Olkiluoto, Finland – the first reactor to be built in Western Europe in the past two decades – causing financial losses to its builder Areva by running wildly over budget. The reactor caused losses of £180 million in the first half of the year alone, despite the government expediting its construction through a “streamlined” process that kept public consultation to a minimum.

More alarmingly for the UK, the idea of self regulation has been supported by Dieter Helm, of the Oxera consultancy, an advisor to the Blair government.

In most debate on the nuclear question, the toxic issue of radioactive waste is overlooked. The environmentalist turned industry shill, James Lovelock, has claimed that nuclear waste is so safe that he is willing to store it in his garden shed. (He also claims Chernobyl killed only 45 people, whereas 500,000 people are reported to have already died out of the 2 million people who were officially classed as victims. Moreover, there were some 50,000 abortion cases in Europe because mothers feared the effects of the radiation.) Serious scientists, on the other hand, remain far less sanguine about storing nuclear waste in back gardens. While all of it is dangerous, some remains toxic for hundreds of thousands of years. Further undermining the rush for nuclear expansion, The Guardian reported in January this year that scientists developing ways to dump Britain’s nuclear w
90

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 19:54:42
waste underground have discovered that ceramic materials proposed to seal high-level waste break down much faster than expected when exposed to the radiation.

Although Westminster and the Scottish Executive have recognised that the 470,000 cubic meters of toxic waste from nuclear plants and weapons needs deep disposal, planning for a new generation of plants when the mess from the last one hasn’t been taken care of seems ill advised at best. Around the world, except for one, all nuclear waste dumps are expected to open only after 2020. The opening of the Yucca Mountain project in the US, originally scheduled for 1998, has been pushed back to 2012. While John Ritch, director of the World Nuclear Association, claims the world needs a 20-fold expansion in nuclear energy, even a tripling of global nuclear capacity, according to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), this would require a “new Yucca-sized dump to be opened somewhere every three or four years”. Sweden, a country that leads the world in research and development into deep disposal facilities, finds it unlikely that such facilities will be available for at least 20 more years – one of the reason why it has decided to phase out nuclear power.

91

Carlung,

18/01/2008 19:54:45
* 104,Van, pumping water is usually only used in areas of flat ground and rarely in Scotland. When I was working with Scottish Water as a sub-contractor many years ago in the 70's to improve the water supplies to Ayrshire and in particular the new ICI Nylon plant at Ardeer, we seriously considered the idea of hydro-electric production from the dam at Loch Braden which was about 750ft above sea-level.
At that time there was a huge surplus of electric power being generated in Scotland by other means and unless Scottish Water were to go "commercial' and export electricity to England the scheme could not go ahead and the company saw no great need to go down that route. However the potential still exists in this and many other sites.
92

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 19:55:07
100 Carlung, Haddington

An excellent suggestion though please dont get Scottish Water to run it - heaven forbid (unless turbines can use raw sewage as the energy potential)!

However, I would prefer pump storage schemes as a priority. Pump storage is the only way we can really store electricity potential currently. I am disappointed that no such schemes are even near the planning stage AFAIK. Surely there are many small - medium scale sites available.

I am wondering, given that about 90% of Scottish countryside is in the hands of private owners (such as relatives of the royal family) whether these sites are included or not? Anyone know?
93

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 19:56:02
BA BOOM
94

OscarMacApfel,

Dumfries 18/01/2008 20:02:43
Douglas Fraser is open to questions...


http://tinyurl.com/2dozxq
95

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 20:07:52
#115. The Forestry Commission are the largest landowners in Scotland at the moment. They have a micro hydro unit which is getting of the ground now.

The biggest problem faced by these schemes are the serial objectors, "no names or pack drill, but they usually have beards and wear knitted hats," who object to these schemes because they can. It is their way of wielding power which they get a huge buzz from. But it costs a lot of money and can delay schemes by up to 5 years under the present planning regime. One thing I would like to see The Scottish Goverments doing is fast tracking these schemes through SEPA and what ever other hoops they have to jump through.

There are still 200 potential sites in Scotland with the same capacity as the new Glen Doe station, but to get them built at the moment would take more years to plan than to build, so companies will not even try.

If we can even get 25% of that built we would be there.

Windfarms can be used to pump water up to holding reservoirs during high wind low demand times, the Germans have a model scheme running now on a national grid system, using wind and solar and it is very successful
96

Jock Tamson,

Scotland, Caledonia, Alba 18/01/2008 20:08:52
On energy conservation, can anyone tell me why we can get a grant for cavity wall insulation when all new houses are built with cavity walls?
97

Jericho Turnpike,

between 2 stools 18/01/2008 20:14:30
I find it interesting how the nuclear debate polarises people, usually due to their heart and emotions - few take a logical and pragmatic approach.
Here we have the Labour party (Westminster branch) doing a U turn from against to Pro Nuclear - Why? Could it be that the South East of 'Great Britain' is facing an energy problem in 10 to 20 years that cannot be met locally in time or the anticipated demand? Nuclear is the only solution that might achieve the requirements -heaven forbid trusting Arthur Scargiles ex commrades!
Being a technical bod I have my doubts, I used to believe in nuclear but what do we do when all the fusion material is gone, and will the new stations REALLY be ready in time to bridge the widening chasim?
The budget for nuclear is enormous, I would direct it towards renewable technology that can be deployed more widely, locally and incrementally, improving and increasing the reliability and efficiency all the time.
after all once commercialised properly a Salters Duck could be produced in hours - as the car industry does with cars.
98

thomas,

midlothian 18/01/2008 20:16:02
if we stupid enough to allow nuclear power in Scotland
we may end up like Canada,where the government of the day sacks the watchdog for not following government instructions.the health and safety of citizens is paramount, unless you are a successful dictatorship ,as is Canada.
99

Jock Tamson,

Scotland, Caledonia, Alba 18/01/2008 20:22:55
120, Jericho, if my memory is correct it was Salter's Duck that was around during Thatcher's time. I read that she'd fudged the £5 per something figure to £500 per something. The Lord Somebody in charge resigned and went public. The BBC covered it.

This was at a time when Thatcher was hell bent on nuclear to persumably stop the SE of England having to import electricity from France.

Where would we be with wave power today without Thatcher?
100

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 20:23:01
#114 Carlung
Most informative - thanks. May I accordingly suggest that any number of highly paid execs remove respective heads from backsides and earn their keep.
Now that I have you on a roll - I have had a long association with rivers and the sea, and am a simple soul. Answer me this, please.
Width of R. Tay between Broughty Ferry and Tayport (narrowest point) is +/- 1350 metres. Neap tides today, difference between high and low water 2.7 metres. Thurs 24/1 (spring tides) difference high/low is 5.0 metres. Taking the law of 12ths (not entirely valid, but good enough for this purpose) where in the first hour the water rises 1/12, second hour 2/12, third 3/12, fourth 3/12 again, fifth 2/12, sixth 1/12 until high water, there is one massive amount of water
101

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 20:24:16
#128 cont
and energy not being used. Why not?
102

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 20:34:48
Further to #128 and #129 - forgot this link:
http://easytide.ukho.gov.uk/EasyTide/EasyTide/ShowPrediction.aspx?PortID=0235&PredictionLength=7
103

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 20:39:27
subsidies for nuclear will have to go on for many decades. Energy firms potentially interested in building 10 nuclear stations have demanded long-term guarantees if they are to put in the c£10bn investment to build each station. They are asking for a levy on bills to build a decommissioning fund. The companies have also demanded a guaranteed minimum floor price for carbon. The government will also build a waste repository with taxpayers' funds, in which the energy companies will rent space, so avoiding the full costs of waste disposal at the taxpayers' expense. Taxpayers will also apparently have to pay for compensation of local communities where the nuclear waste site is built (almost £1bn), security at nuclear sites, and transmission of waste. The National Audit Office says nuclear liabilities accrued by the government to date include £70bn for existing waste and £5.1bn in bailouts for British energy. Who knows what the ultimate bills will be for the re-nuclearisation of Britain.

With renewables, you get subsidies of limited duration and known magnitude, followed by a big prize. With nuclear, you get subsidies of unlimited duration, unknown magnitude, followed by a stream of unsolved problems.

104

Jericho Turnpike,

On the other stool 18/01/2008 20:40:25
#120
Probably producing our electricity by Ducks!
It would be really good to see wave and tidal being pushed more as on ballance it seems the most neutral way of energy generation, then again alcohol is another option as a fuel, whilst less calorific than petrol could still be developed more and would provide hard pressed farmers with a nice wee earner.
105

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 20:42:54
Twenty years after being killed off in a closed-door meeting of the British government, Salter’s Duck – a super efficient wave generator developed in Scotland – continues to tempt green energy enthusiasts as another possible alternative to oil, coal, and nuclear energy.

Developed by Prof. Stephen Salter at the University of Edinburgh during the 1970s, the Duck is a giant egg-shaped oscillator tethered to the ocean floor. As the float rides each incoming wave, the motion of the swell compresses air through the Duck driving turbines which create electricity. Arranged along Britain’s famously tempestuous coastline, Salter’s Ducks would create thousands of pollution-free kilowatts. In 1985, the future looked bright as the first pilot Duck bobbed in the water off Norway.

But then, after a secret report of Britain’s Advisory Council on Research and Development, all funding was pulled from the project. Only in 1990 did the truth emerge: the nuclear lobby and the British government, afraid of losing big money contracts, had doctored various reports to make wave energy seem more expensive and less reliable than it actually was.

Green energy is nothing to fear; someday soon, Salter’s Duck will quietly float once again.
106

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 20:42:54
Twenty years after being killed off in a closed-door meeting of the British government, Salter’s Duck – a super efficient wave generator developed in Scotland – continues to tempt green energy enthusiasts as another possible alternative to oil, coal, and nuclear energy.

Developed by Prof. Stephen Salter at the University of Edinburgh during the 1970s, the Duck is a giant egg-shaped oscillator tethered to the ocean floor. As the float rides each incoming wave, the motion of the swell compresses air through the Duck driving turbines which create electricity. Arranged along Britain’s famously tempestuous coastline, Salter’s Ducks would create thousands of pollution-free kilowatts. In 1985, the future looked bright as the first pilot Duck bobbed in the water off Norway.

But then, after a secret report of Britain’s Advisory Council on Research and Development, all funding was pulled from the project. Only in 1990 did the truth emerge: the nuclear lobby and the British government, afraid of losing big money contracts, had doctored various reports to make wave energy seem more expensive and less reliable than it actually was.

Green energy is nothing to fear; someday soon, Salter’s Duck will quietly float once again.
107

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 20:43:25
oops
108

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 20:47:14
Wave energy technologies can be based either onshore or offshore. In the early part of this century, navigation buoys were fitted with a vertical open bottomed tube to allow waves to oscillate inside. This up and down motion forced air through a whistle to act as a signal. Later, in the 1940s, generators were fitted to replace the whistle with a light. There are over one thousand such devices currently in operation around the world. Research and development was advanced during the oil crises of the 1970s and many new wave power installations were developed around the world. The coasts of the UK were identified as possibly providing a potentially significant source of renewable energy. Indeed, the UK was a ‘lead nation’ in the development of wave power up to 1985 (Prins and Stamp 1991). These schemes, however, looked at large-scale projects, rather than smaller projects suitable for island communities. The Government decided to cut expenditure on wave power as it was considered to be uneconomic at the time. However, in reality, this was not the case. The main device being investigated at the time was the Salter Duck, named after its inventor, Professor Stephen Salter of Edinburgh University. The Salter Duck was designed for operating in the open sea. It consists of floats, ‘ducks’, which nod as waves pass. This oscillating action generates electricity by compressing air to drive turbines. In 1985, the first full-scale pilot plant was built in Norway and produced electricity at 4p/kWh. However, in the same year, the UK Government cancelled all research on wave power. The reason for this action was a secret report, produced by the Advisory Council on Research and Development which recommended saving the £3M being spent on research. At that time £200M was being spent on nuclear research. Indeed, the nuclear lobby and Government, were pushing for the Sizewell B nuclear power station, and were afraid that cheap wave power would undermine the nuclear p
109

Carlung,

Haddington 18/01/2008 20:55:59
128 Van, I think your last comment was incomplete. However if I may presume to anticipate you statement, the basic problem with estuary surge is the variancy between the heights of the tides and the flow volume. Also the complications of Maritime traffic etc. Fresh water power generation has the advantage that it is salt free and the corrosion problems are far less important when it comes to the cost analysis
110

Carlung,

Haddington 18/01/2008 21:07:39
135, Hen Broon, As a civil Engineer, I'm fully aware of Salter's "nodding ducks".It was a scandal that funding was pulled. Had it gone ahead in the 80's we might well be much further along the route to energy independence than we are. We must free ourselves from Energy policy being controlled from London
111

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 21:10:30
#138 Carlung
It carried over to #129 and #131 - but never mind. I am not suggesting a barrage, or similar, for the Tay. I am merely making the observation that one heck of a lot of cubic metres of water trundle in and out, almost twice/day. I would hate to have to carry it to and fro in 5 litre cans! There must be a way of tapping into this, and other estuarial and marine energy sources - and I note recent references to Salter's Ducks, plus Salter's student who created Pelamis.
112

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 21:13:59
Methalions #126, I wholly agree with your quote there. The main carbon-free method of hydrogen production is electrolysis of water. This can be done using renewable electricity or nuclear power. It works better at high temperature, so nuclear power stations are particularly well suited to it. All I'm saying is that it is unrealistic to expect to deliver all our electricity and transport requirements solely from renewables.
113

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 21:16:55
141 "it is unrealistic to expect to deliver all our electricity and transport requirements solely from renewables."

Why? And will we not have to eventually? Or are unrenewables going to become renewable?
114

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 21:18:20
141 COlin

can you tell of us a single nuclear power plant in the world built without subsidy?

And can you tell us if UK nuclear received capital debt right offs? And if they receive any public money for decommissioning and waste (on top of free plants paid for by the taxpayer)?
115

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 21:24:43
141 Why is electroylsis "carbon free" unless the electricty comes from CO2 neutral renewable source?
116

Carlung,

Haddington 18/01/2008 21:25:51
140, Van, sorry about missing your other comments, I'm new to this Blobbing/Blogging thing! However, Pelamis is a very ingenious attenuating wave device but really only operates in very calm water with minamil surges or in controlled situations.
It can be damaged by storm conditions and I wonder if it is suitable for Scottish conditions. I return to my original premise at No 100 carlung!
117

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 21:28:37
Evening All.
Had a wee spat with an "engineer" yesterday.

Tidal, Hydroelectric, Wind and Solar plants can't cover every eventuality.(He said).
High tide,dead calm, drought and a solar eclipse.
THEN there will be no electricity.

118

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 21:32:14
#146 Carlung
Thanks for your input - and by all means return to your original premise, but don't just leave it at that. Do something about it, or does a degree of flatulence against the prevailing have relevance?
119

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 21:33:53
Re #148 - horribly mixed metaphor, or whatever, intended.
120

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 21:34:15
147 Pity no one could invent some way of storing electricty ?
121

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 21:36:03
#147 Conan.
Where did you find this supreme optimist?
122

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 21:37:06
146 Carlung, Haddington

Dont worry, its what you say that counts and I for one look forward to further contributions from you...this site has went so downhill recently. Unlike new hydro that should be going both downhill and uphill again ;)
123

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 21:41:09
150 Ayrshire Scot™

Heard of batteries? ;)
Or on a larger scale - Pump 'Storage'. The clue is in the name. :)
124

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 21:42:11
146 Carlung, I agree with 152, your posts, esp 100, were interesting.

125

danielrober,

18/01/2008 21:43:53
I agree with 126 (Meths) and 141 (Col).

My area of engineer, renewables, is been slowly been destroyed by Expectations. We need nuclear as a stop gap, for the next 20 - 30 years before renewables can be brought online, without casuing even moreproblems.

Later on it can be used to generate 'storable' hydrogen and oxygen.
126

Carlung,

Haddington 18/01/2008 21:44:44
146 Van, no real problem - as you can probably surmise I'm a retired civil engineer. I'm now too old, too tired and too talented to fight the battles that I used to go through in the past to make Scotland self sufficient in electricity. No doubt someone else will take up the baton and run with it.
127

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 21:46:27
145 Col. Blimp IV*,

Out of curiosity...what is the actual suspension bridge to be held up with if not 'pillars'?

Sorry the Bruichladdich is starting to show through!
128

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 21:48:47
Ayrshire Scot #143, as I have said elsewhere, all forms of energy, including fossil fuels, require subsidy of one type or another. Nuclear needs relatively little for the amount of energy it can supply.

http://www.issues.org/22.3/realnumbers.html

Can you point to any commercial energy source of any kind that is not subsidised?

You seem think that subsidy indicates that the end product is not cheap, but this is not necessarily the case. Subsidy generally indicates inability to turn a profit in the short term, but it does not mean the product is not cheap in the long term.

The history of UK nuclear power is not particularly relevant to the economics of new build. New reactors would be nothing like the AGRs or Magnox stations. The old fleet of reactors was owned by the taxpayer and originally run for taxpayer benefit. The taxpayer did not set aside funds for decommissioning and waste (or rather, they did but successive governments spent the funds on other things) hence the taxpayer has a bill to pay. It is true that nuclear power in the 70's and 80s was not particularly competitive with fossil fuel power, but that is mainly because fossil fuel power did not have to pay the colossal costs of the environmental damage that it has caused. That turns out to be the biggest subsidy of all.
129

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 21:56:21
155 danielrober, I agree to a certain extent.
Scotland does not need any Nuclear though. Think of it in practical terms regarding how the grid actually works.

England I think has justification for Nuclear in the SE. I do not see justification for 10 sites though, maybe 4 or 5, all run by EDF using the same design from a Government backed private company incase it goes t!ts up.

Thats not what the UK Govenment proposed its EDF first, then a free for all. Scotland does not have to be 100% self reliant. Even France isnt and it is over 70% Nuclear! UK is building 10 for England and Wales but will importing more elecricity from Scotland in 2020 than they do now.

The whole 'lights out' scenario is more disingenuous scaremongering.
130

danielrober,

18/01/2008 22:12:31
# 159 David MacVicar,web

We do need nuclear, i wish we did not but we do. It is a problem though that the UK government seems to have an 'EDF' based policy. But other countries build reasonable nuclear for export, including Canada and Russia.

As for the 2020 date. Well, that is the date that, as i understand it the Labour Party intends to try and get 'back into power'.


P.S from another article

I've just caught up on the past articles on the bridge, OH MY GOD. A £100 million for a study. I ask deeply, please operate an open bid, including a tunnel.

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/forthbridges/100m-Forth-bridge-39masterminds39-.3615297.jp

I admire the Scotsman for having the guts for running these articles.

Really the price should be about £150 million for a rewiring job. This bridge will break the Scottish government. YOUR BEEN PLAYED.

SORRY, I CAN NOT RISK THE LEAGAL BATTLE OVER THIS, WATCH YOUR WALLETS.
131

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 22:15:45
Hen Broon,

Thanks for the informative posts, you seem in a much tempered mood this evening!

In addition to your post 132, the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management CoRWM has its final report available.
(http://www.corwm.org.uk/pdf/FullReport.pdf)
As a government orgainsation it has a few interesting things to say.

Namely - long term storage considerations are very long indeed, not just 10s or 100s of thousands of years. It is in the order of a million years. (Not my words)

The 'temporary' storage above ground for Intermediate and High level wastes are quantified. Existing wastes of this type will not start to be buried until 2040 - 2050 at the earliest!

This gives cause for concern as some contairs were not originally meant to be left above ground this long eg. thety are good for 50 years but have already been in drums since decades...

This legacy is still of great concern in Scotland and I would not be happy for a post independent Scotland to foot 100% of the bill for essentially what is the UKs Nuclear and chemical experiments in this country.
132

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 22:17:28
Ayrshire Scot #144, I suppose strictly speaking the electrolysis to make hydrogen is never carbon-free because even renewables and nuclear power have some lifecycle CO2 emissions (from concrete production; steel production; transport as long as we rely on fossil fuel; etc). But the lifecycle emissions from nuclear, wind and hydro are all similar, and sufficiently low to be sustainable. Compared to cracking natural gas, which is the current main method of hydrogen production, electrolysis using renewables or nuclear is low-carbon.

And #142, it is an interesting question to consider what our long-term energy sources will be. I would say the main contender would be nuclear fusion, and whether we consider it renewable or not is somewhat moot, because hydrogen is abundant throughout the universe. The next best bet if fusion does not emerge would be space-based solar power. This gets around the intermittency problem by avoiding night-time. After that, I think fission is still in the frame for the next 100 years at least, and probably a lot longer. Theoretically there is enough uranium and thorium to continue at our current usage for longer than the sun will last (we can argue at what point it becomes uneconomic, but that largely depends on what the other economic energy options are). Other renewables are niche players, but they all have a role. Efficient high-capacity energy storage technology would also make a big difference.
133

yoric,

18/01/2008 22:19:11
If you cover the Highlands in Windfarms not only will Scotland sit in the dark as Wind power fails to deliver but the tourists will stay away.
Nobody is going to want to visit the Scottish Highlands and look at WindFarms.
134

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:19:55
158 Colin

not my question (which you did not answer I note)

I can point to several privately funded power stations (non nuclear) in the USA and Europe. I cannot point to one privately funded nuclear plant in the world? Why, if nuclear cheaper (and thus venture capital return presumbaly higher) is this so? Market failure? Or market success in detecting the white elephant of nuclear? Even in US, so pro nuclear and free market, not one single nuclear plant in 30 years? Why?

135

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:23:36
163. And are the projected CO2 emmissions of life cylce nuclear generation projected to rise or fall?

Rise, of course, meaning renewables will have a much lower CO2 profile, agree?
136

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 22:25:50
151
Van
Was one of the nuke/renewable posts yesterday.Or possibly this morning.
Been at the pub.
I'm a very eagre tidal bore.
Boomtish.
137

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:26:05
163 "Compared to cracking natural gas, which is the current main method of hydrogen production, electrolysis using renewables or nuclear is low-carbon."

While CO2 emmissions from nuclear will rise massively as high grade Uranium ore exhausted....so renewables must be preferebale. Even if they equal (which I don't accept) one is clean and safe, the other the most dangerous, lethal technology invented with massive waste and safety problems.
138

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:28:29
Hen Broon 5 (105): "If large numbers of nuclear reactors were to be built to satisfy our ever-increasing demand for electricity, reserves of high-grade ore would be rapidly exhausted"

That's only correct without reprocessing. The very nature of fusion is that there are still large quantities of useful fissile material in "spent" fuel rods: fission produces, as it were, an "ash" of daughter products limiting further exploitation.

Your point also excludes the possibility that we might abandon U235 and Pu fission for thorium: we are not limited to uranium ore alone.
139

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 22:29:44
161 danielrober.

I dont see how you can come to such a conclusion given the available evidence to the contrary. Further, what other countries are doing is not relevant compared to what Gov.UK are actually delivering.

Firstly, the Royal society report from 2006 concluded that the current UK electricity economics means that New Nuclear build in Scotland would NOT be uneconomic.
I would guess, that even without the SNP bluster, that there would be little interest to build a new Nuclear plant in Scotland!

Also, base load and additional shortfalls do not need to come from Nuclear, it is not the one, true alternative nor last great hope.

The reality would have been that New Nuclear, if built would not be in operation until about 2023 at the earliest in Scotland.

I guess all the candle merchants must be doing a roaring trade. Invest now if you really think that is a likely scenario.
140

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:30:12
Ayrshire Scot (135): "Can you point to one nuclear plant built without subsidy in the whole world?"

There aren't many, but General Atomics TRIGA reactors seem to fit the bill: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRIGA
141

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:33:04
Jericho Turnpike (120): "Being a technical bod I have my doubts, I used to believe in nuclear but what do we do when all the fusion material is gone"

Hmm. You're a technical bod, but have confused fusion with fission.It's Friday night, granted, but still . . .
142

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 22:34:00
170 should say "NOT be economic"!
143

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:34:08
171 I hesitate to click on that. Is Triga not a gay porn label?
144

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 22:36:22
170
http://www.somethingforthewickend.co.uk/candles.html

Good idea.
145

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:36:56
Ayrshire Scot: "Is Triga not a gay porn label?"

No, that's the horse I suspect, unless you have further data.
146

David MacVicar,

web 18/01/2008 22:40:02
169 Fairfax. Why do you mention Fusion related to Fission? I guess you meant to say Fission?

Also, you have valif point about other fissionable raw materials, except I have not seen this in the current UK proposals. They will be building 10 reactors to consume enriched Uranium, which makes Hen Broons arguments pretty valid.

There is little data on how much enriched Uranium the UK has stored or how much reprocessed uranium can be used. Given the lack of this info it should be discounted in a public date, since the info is not public - QED.
147

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:40:29
David MacVicar (170): "I would guess, that even without the SNP bluster, that there would be little interest to build a new Nuclear plant in Scotland!"

On the contrary: one of Scotland's key resources is low population density. Building nuclear plant is Scotland is essentially exploiting this advantage over, for example, SE England's generally higher population density.
148

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 22:42:49
#167 Conan - pass on that one - didn't see it.
Take it he was having a laugh.
Alternatively he could have been a supleme plick - not least as time of high water Wick will differ from Aberdeen, Dundee, Leith, and so on, right the way round the coast.
Surprised he did not suggest we all run round the planet the wrong way, stop it spinning, and all fall off. THEN no need for any electricity.
Trust pub full of jovial banter?
149

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:43:46
171 And no, doen't fit bill, Public funds involved. Exactly my point. If nuclear so damned cheap, why can't it turn a profit from construction to decommissioning?
150

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:44:27
176 Google on McDuff
151

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:45:14
David MacVicar: (177): "169 Fairfax. Why do you mention Fusion related to Fission? I guess you meant to say Fission?"

You're absolutely correct: it was a typo. I had corrected an earlier poster who had written fusion instead of fission, then made the mistake myself. Such are the penalties of hubris (and posting post pub)!
152

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 22:46:18
Ayrshire Scot #166,

Well the Sustainable Development Commission (who are anti-nuke in general) thinks that the emissions from nuclear will reduce:

http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=337

"Nuclear power is therefore not carbon free.
But with CO2 emissions at a level comparable
to a major low carbon alternative, wind
power, the impact of indirect emissions is
not included in the following analysis of
nuclear’s potential contribution to reducing
the UK’s CO2 emissions. This is in recognition
of the fact that in a low carbon economy,
the indirect emissions from nuclear power,
along with other low carbon technologies,
would be substantially reduced."

The main emission in the lifecycle are from mining, conversion and fuel enrichment. This is because the vehicles, machinery and some electricity sources use fossil fuel. The less dependent we are on fossil fuel, the lower these go. I know if you've been reading Storm van Leeuwen there is an argument that the emissions increase as the grade of uranium decreases, but he makes some unrealistic assumptions such as using coal fired electricity in the future. Ideally we won't be using fossil fuel for any of this in future. On the other hand, some CO2 emissions are almost unavoidable, such as those from steel production. But I suspect these might impact renewables more than nuclear.
153

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:46:56
178 Death ray. Was pondered by USSR for city lighting (reflectors) but could be focussed. But exactly.... some moe developed solutions needing more R&D
154

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:48:14
Ayrshire Scot (181): "71 And no, doen't fit bill, Public funds involved."

The involvement of some public funds would exclude almost anything, however. TRIGA has been enormously successful, is safe on physical grounds, produces a pleasant blue grow due to Cherenkov radiation, and enabled you to produce an amusing porn reference. What more can an energy source demand?
155

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 22:50:02
#183 Fairfax - name of pub isn't 'The Post House', perchance?
156

Strathturret,

montrose 18/01/2008 22:50:02
Two points that nobody has made in the debate.

If you compare Scotland to England our ratio of people to land is vastly different, so our energy solution should be different. We have so much more natural resources per person.

Secondly, being nuclear free is a great marketing strategy for Scotland in 21st century. We can sell a clean green image to promote everything from holidays to food.

In summary I have confidence that Salmond (an energy economist) and Swinney have done their sums.
157

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:50:40
184 Does this relate to exhaustion of high grade ore, and mining of lower grade ore, with greater processing requirements?
158

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:54:29
David MacVicar (177): "There is little data on how much enriched Uranium the UK has stored or how much reprocessed uranium can be used. Given the lack of this info it should be discounted in a public date, since the info is not public - QED."

That's not entirely correct, although I agree the precise figure is technically hidden by secrecy. Fortunately the late Ted Taylor, a supreme weapons designer who turned anti-nuclear, made the key figures public here:

http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/1996/07/00_taylor_nuclear-power.htm

The key statistic, as I've written earlier, is that a 1 GW reactor produces some 200 kg of Plutonium (Pu239 and Pu 240) per year. We can do the rest of the calculation from here.
159

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 22:55:16
#178 Col Blimp, yes, electromagnetic death ray it is.

Well actually, the solar power would be transmitted as a microwave beam, which would be fairly low density by the time it reaches the surface. It would be picked up by a solar collector, similar to a traditional photovoltaic powerstation, except that it would work at night.

If you're worried about the microwaves, I suspect they would be less dangerous than sunlight (no carcinogenic UV).

I don't expect to see this for 40 or 50 years. It will probably be pipped by fusion, but possibly not.

In terms of CO2 emissions, it is apparently competitive with nuclear, wind, etc.
http://policy.rutgers.edu/cupr/iioa/AsakuraCollinsNomuraHayami&Yoshioka_LifeCycleCO2.pdf
160

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 22:56:44
Is anyone else having problems posting?

180
Indeed it was, but then I was ejected.
It is just full of sad banters now.
161

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:57:59
Van (not white diesel) Man (187): "#183 Fairfax - name of pub isn't 'The Post House', perchance?"

Isn't that in Ely? I don't stray far from the Cambridge Blue and the Live and Let Live, in Cambridge.
162

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 22:58:58
Conan (192): "Is anyone else having problems posting?"

Yes. It seems to need several tries before success.
163

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 22:59:14
192 awright C the L? I am. But is prob just us subversives?
164

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 23:00:22
192 - aye - posting very 'iffy'.
Having been ejected - you may have a case for the European Court - if you can remember the circumstances, that is.
165

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 23:03:58
#189 The point that the SD commission is making is that, in general, less reliance on fossil fuel will reduce the lifecycle emissions of nuclear and all other low-carbon sources. Specifically, my point is if we don't use fossil fuel to power the machinery for mining, conversion and enrichment, it doesn't matter how poor the grade of uranium ore gets. We could use nuclear electricity and/or hydrogen for the whole cycle.
166

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 23:04:51
Colin (191): "Well actually, the solar power would be transmitted as a microwave beam, which would be fairly low density by the time it reaches the surface."

I like big science too, but why bother with microwaves? Reflected light alone would provide vast quantities of energy: it should be possible to simply use a mirror -- e.g. a large thin piece of aluminium foil. A large low mass reflector in orbit, pointed at London (say), could then provide enhanced sunlight in winter. We could even provide light for a limited time after dark, given the altitude of the satellite.
167

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 23:04:57
Evening Ayrshire.
That's what I thought earlier.

Now I just think it's a sh!te website.Again.
168

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 23:05:25
197 It doesn't matter how poor the ore grade gets? If we use renewable energy to process it?

You said before that nuclear and wind etc were roughly equal (today) in CO2 profile? Which is safer?
169

 Ayrshire Scot™,

18/01/2008 23:05:58
193 you in Cambridge, Faxy?
170

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 23:08:01
#193 Fairfax - 319 hits (some no doubt duplicates) on Google for 'The Post House'. I have vague recollection of Devon. There is the 'Post Office Bar' in Broughty Ferry, just to get our friend even more confused.
171

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 23:09:41
"193 you in Cambridge, Faxy?"

Yes, except when I'm visiting family in London or Scotland.
172

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 23:12:03
196
Ejected by a mobile phone call from the wife.
"Yes dear those ****** tram roadworks have held up the buses again". Been waiting here for AGES.
198
I like the thought of a large orbital microwave beam aimed at Westminster.
173

Fairfax,

18/01/2008 23:18:03
Conan (204): "I like the thought of a large orbital microwave beam aimed at Westminster."

I'm a Londoner, so therefore slightly less keen. Still nearby postcodes might even see their environment improved by this. My key point is that I don't think we need microwaves: a mirror is sufficient. My idea here is large numbers of directed aluminium foil mirrors in low earth orbit, providing extra sun in winter. The mirrors could be controlled from the ground, and would supply their own power (via solar cells) for movement.
174

Van (not white) Diesel,

18/01/2008 23:28:42
#205 Fairfax - your suggestion would gain massive support from the orange sector.
Careful now!
175

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 23:29:01
205
Have you seen Rulesbutnotrulers posts on the same subject?
Obviously the engineering problems are huge.
Then you have to think of the eco-fascists "carbon footprint" sh!te.All that rocket fuel!

By the way are you named after the General?
176

HEN BROON 5,

18/01/2008 23:30:40
#205. Fairfax your rambling what were you on down the pub you never responded to this and I thought you would?

Amory Lovins, William Keepin and Gregory Kats (Energy Policy, December 1988) of the Rocky Mountain Institute have shown energy conservation strategies are far more effective in reducing carbon dioxide emissions than constructing power stations of whatever type. Nuclear power only produces electricity and can only possibly displace electricity plants, not the bulk of CO2 emissions which come from cars, trucks, factory smokestacks and home furnaces.

They also looked at the costs of nuclear versus improved energy efficiency and found every dollar invested in energy efficiency displaces 6.8 times more carbon than the same investment in nuclear power. “To the extent investments in nuclear power divert funds away from efficiency,” the study concludes, “the pursuit of a nuclear response to greenhouse warming would effectively exacerbate the problem.” Obviously it would be much better to replace investment in nuclear power with investment in energy efficiency, for example insulating drafty buildings or installing energy-efficient light bulbs
177

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 23:30:44
#200 If we don't use fossil fuel to power the machinery for mining, conversion and enrichment, it doesn't matter how poor the grade of uranium ore gets. We could use renewable energy, or we could use nuclear electricity and/or hydrogen for the whole cycle. Either way the CO2 emissions would be minimal. Emissions for nuclear only increase if you make unlikely assumptions such as using coal fired electricity for all the fuel processing (as Storm van Leeuwen does when trying to "prove" that nuclear produces lots of CO2).

On your other point, it's too late at night to argue over the safety of nuclear vs wind. Suffice to say we need both. Even the BWEA is not expecting wind to displace any nuclear stations.

178

Conan the Librarian™,

18/01/2008 23:32:22
206
LOL. Tommy the Tan would try to get elected to Westminster!
179

Liberal for life,

Dunblane 18/01/2008 23:40:21
The pro nuclear lobby should emigrate!
180

Colin, Glasgow,

18/01/2008 23:40:45
#208 "Obviously it would be much better to replace investment in nuclear power with investment in energy efficiency, for example insulating drafty buildings or installing energy-efficient light bulbs"

Yes, but after you have made all the efficiency savings, the next cheapest way of abating carbon emissions is by using nuclear power. No other method of electricity generation can abate carbon for less cost.
Look at the cost curve:
http://berc.berkeley.edu/flyers/McKinseyQ.pdf
Efficiency savings have negative cost (they actually save money). Nuclear has virtually zero cost, because it costs about the same as fossil fuel. Other options, including wind and CCS are progressively more expensive ways of abating carbon. But we (globally) need them all.

181

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 00:09:06
The best case against nuclear power as a global warming remedy begins with the fact that nuclear-generated electricity is very expensive. Despite more than $150 billion in federal subsides over the past 60 years (roughly 30 times more than solar, wind and other renewable energy sources have received), nuclear power still costs substantially more than electricity made from wind, coal, oil or natural gas. This is mainly due to the cost of borrowing money for the decade or more it takes to get a nuclear plant up and running.

Remarkably, this inconvenient fact does not deter industry officials from boasting that nuclear is the cheapest power available. Their trick is to count only the cost of operating the plants, not of constructing them. By that logic, a Rolls Royce is cheap to drive because only the cost of gasoline matters,not the sticker price as well.

The marketplace, however, sees through such blarney. As Amory Lovins, the energy guru who directs the Rocky Mountain Institute a think tank that advises corporations and governments on energy use points out, Nowhere [in the world] do market-driven utilities buy, or private investors finance, new nuclear plants. Only continued massive government intervention is keeping the nuclear option alive.

A second strike against nuclear power is that it only produces electricity, and electricity amounts to only a third of the United States total energy use (and less of the worlds). Nuclear power thus addresses only a small fraction of the global warming problem having no effect whatsoever on two of the largest sources of carbon emissions: driving vehicles and heating buildings.

The upshot is that nuclear power is seven times less cost-effective at displacing carbon than the cheapest, fastest alternative better energy efficiency, according to studies by the Rocky Mountain Institute. For example, a nuclear power plant typically costs at least $2 billion, or up to $5 billion with overruns. That money could be spent
182

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 00:10:05
That money could be spent to insulate drafty buildings, purchase hybrid cars or install superefficient light bulbs and clothes dryers. Such an investment would lead to seven times less carbon consumption than if that money were spent on a nuclear power plant. In short, energy efficiency offers a much bigger bang for the buck. In a world of limited capital, investing in nuclear power will divert money away from cheaper and faster responses to global warming, thus slowing the worlds withdrawal from carbon fuels at a time when speed is essential.

Mainstream environmentalists do argue that energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable energies are better weapons against global warming than nuclear power. But they will fare better if they go a step further and point out that embracing nuclear power is not just unnecessary, but a step backward.

Even so, a tough fight lies ahead. As the 2005 energy bill illustrates, the nuclear power industry has many friends in high places. The case for nuclear power will strengthen if its economics improve. The key to lower nuclear costs is to reduce the amount of time it takes to build nuclear power plants, which could happen if the industry at last adopts standardized reactors and the U.S. government streamlines the plant-approval process.

On a more fundamental level, any defeat of nuclear power is likely to be short-lived if America does not confront what Diamond calls its core value of consumerism. After all, there is only so much waste to wring out of any given economy. Eventually, if human population and appetites keep growing and some growth is inevitable, given the ambitions of China and other newly industrializing nations new energy sources must be exploited. At that point, nuclear power and other undesirable alternatives will be waiting.

Environmentalists have been afraid to talk honestly about Americas consumerism for decades, ever since a cardigan-wearing Jimmy Carter was ridiculed for urging people to tu
183

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 00:11:16
ever since a cardigan-wearing Jimmy Carter was ridiculed for urging people to turn down their thermostats during the 1979 oil crisis. But now that we have managed through our carbon-fueled pursuit of the good life to turn up the planets thermostat to ominous levels, its time to break the silence. We dont have to freeze in the dark far from it but neither can we keep consuming as if theres no tomorrow.

Mark Hertsgaard is a fellow at The Nation Institute and author of Nuclear Inc.: The Men and Money Behind Nuclear Energy and Earth Odyssey: Around the World in Search of Our Environmental Future. Contact Hertsgaard through his Web site, www.markhertsgaard.com.

Costly and Dangerous
There is no question that nuclear power is a dangerous, high-risk technology, but nuclear power’s poor economics is the primary reason that no nuclear plant ordered since 1974 has been completed.

There is a strong link between economics and safety. Reactors in the United States have been badly managed and poorly regulated. As a direct consequence, their costs have been higher and their safety levels have been lower than necessary. Evidence supporting this conclusion comes from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and its predecessor, the Atomic Energy Commission, which have licensed a grand total of 130 nuclear power reactors in the United States. Fifty times during that period, a U.S. nuclear reactor had to be closed for a year or longer to restore safety levels. This is neither economical, nor safe. Yet we experienced it again and again. U.S. reactors were badly managed and poorly regulated, and unless those two systemic problems are addressed, the future of nuclear power in the United States will probably be a replay of its troubled past.

— David Lochbaum,
Nuclear Safety Engineer,
Union of Concerned Scientists


184

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 00:27:11
#212. You said "But we (globally) need them all."

And there was me thinking we were debating whether Scotland needs nuclear.

The overwhelming weight of the argument as far as I can see in Europe is that nuclear has had it's day. And all the scaremongering about the lights going out is just that.

The nuclear industry like the Arabs and their lakes of oil and gross wealth are fighting for survival because there is so much taking place and so many possibilities that by the time the next nuclear station gets commissioned the nuclear bubble will be well and truly burst.

For every argument you put up for nuclear there are several counter arguments. No one trusts the nuclear lobby as they have played fast and loose with safety. And they are covering up the truth on the horrible effects of their poisonous activities.
Goodmorning.

185

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 09:06:57
A few facts on renewable energy, gathered form a sustainability project I was involved in recently
PART 1
The average wind turbine is rated at 1MW and runs at 23% efficiency. Given that UK power requirements are about 57000MW, this translates into about 230,000 of these monsters across the country. The UK has an area of approximately 89,000 square miles. That equates to one turbine every 2.5 square miles if we rely on wind power alone. Also the carbon footprint involved in the manufacture, transportation and connection to the national grid (not to mention the despoilation of the countryside), coupled with their low efficiency, means there is unlikely to be any overall reduction in CO2 production. Clearly unsustainable.
Coal-fired power stations are about 33% efficient, so better than wind power but at the cost of massive production of greenhouse gases, though the technology exists to reduce it - and the UK has massive coal reserves - around 300 years worth at current estimates.
Wave power is in its infancy and it is very difficult to find good data on its efficiency. Anecdotal evidence suggests that, at present, it is not much more efficient than wind power, though the power source is more reliable. There are plenty of claims but precious few hard facts.
Hydro power, in which Scotland is a world leader. Unfortunately, it is not very green. Notwithstanding the enormous environmental damage done building them, the effect on the local ecology can be disastrous, especially to aquatic life as the oxygen content of the water passing through the turbines becomes depleted. This can lead to anaerobic conditions in the catchment lakes where present and the resultant production of greenhouse gases. That said, hydro electric in Europe produces only about 8% of the greenhouse gases that conventional oil, gas and coal generators do.
All of the UK's electricity needs could be achieved by constructing 20 nuclear power stations of Sizewell B size. This is a clean and safe met
186

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 09:07:24
PART 2
My researches have led me to conclude that there are no truly 'green' solutions only some solutions that are less bad than others. Wind power is a non-starter. It is inefficient and unreliable. The only reason we are seeing so many being built is politics - being seen to be green, even though it isn't.
The jury is out on wave power. It has the potential, due to the source being reliable, but the technology is not mature enough. Needs massive investment.
Hydro has the advantage of low greenhouse gas emissions but at the cost of huge environmental damage.
Nuclear is the only way to be green in the short to medium term. The fact is the present generation of nuclear power stations are going to need replacing in 10 - 15 years. It is unlikely that the alternatives outlined above will be available in sufficient quantity to replace them, due in no small measure I would suspect to the opposition to destroying the environment that such massive expansion would entail, especially wind and hydro power. Nuclear also evokes much dissent but, if the lights are not to go out in ten years, some very hard decisions have to be made now. With the present Scottish Government having set its face against nuclear, it is difficult to see how it can be avoided unless compromises are made. Or are we going to ask the English if we can borrow some of theirs?
187

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 09:59:24
Oops. Th Scotsman's word limit cut off the last paragraph of part which should be:

All of the UK's electricity needs could be achieved by constructing 20 nuclear power stations of Sizewell B size. This is a clean and safe method of electrical production. This is the sole reason the French lead the way on emissions in Europe. They can in the main be located away from population centres and in inconspicuous locations. There is the issue of waste disposal but this is not the insurmountable issue that the anti-nuclear lobby like to make out it is. Scotland's geology is well suited to deep storage with very little risk. However, like oil, uranium is a finite resource and it tends to be found in politically unstable countries.
To be continued......
188

Carlung,

Haddington 19/01/2008 10:00:16
So, Capt fantastic, are the English borrowing our surplus electricity at the moment?
189

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 10:35:03
#224

They certainly are, but that will change as older stations go off-line and if adequate capacity to meet peak demands (which wind and wave cannot do)is not commissioned to replace them. Denmark is a good example. They passed laws to ban nuclear power a few years ago, but they cannot now generate enough power to satisfy peak demands, so they import from France and Germany - two of Europe's main nuclear generators. Ironic n'est ce pas? We could be in a similar situation. Despite being Europe's leader in green energy, the Danes only manage to generate 18.5% of their power requirements by 'green' means (with plans to increase to 30% - but questions are being asked if that is realistic). All I'm saying is that despite the political rhetoric, we cannot rely on wind and wave power. The Danes have proved it.
190

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 19/01/2008 10:35:25
#221 Captain

Please justify your statement:

"The average wind turbine is rated at 1MW and runs at 23% efficiency"
191

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 10:38:32
Hen, "The overwhelming weight of the argument as far as I can see in Europe is that nuclear has had it's day."

I'm afraid you are well out of touch. That might have been the popular sentiment 10 years ago, but now every country in Europe that has proposed phasing out nuclear power is having a rethink, essentially because it is impossible to meet carbon targets without it.

For example:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/nuclearPolicies/Swedish_politicians_call_for_rethink_on_nuclear_phaseout-140108.shtml

The thinking of Scotland's govt is where Sweden was 25 years ago. They voted to phase out nuclear power in the early 80s and have spent the last couple of decades looking for renewable alternatives. Despite overt government backing it has been impossible to replace their nuclear stations, which have actually been uprated during the period. They still get half their power from nuclear (and most of the rest from hydro). If there was a health problem with nuclear power, the anti-nuclear Swedish government would have found it and used it as a lever against the unions. If there was an alternative source of large-scale renewable energy they would have found it. It simply isn't that easy. Now they are coming to the conclusion that nuclear power is the greenest viable option.

Germany is a similar situation. If they phase out nuclear, all of their admirable new renewables development for the next 20 years will not save any carbon emissions at all.

The main groups who say that nuclear is easily dispensable are NGOs who have no responsibility for the impact of the decision. They have poisoned public opinion against nuclear power, and driven up the use of fossil fuel in Europe, with fatal consequences. It is unforgivable.

In the UK we need nuclear power somewhere. Whether it is based in Scotland or not makes little difference (except ironically to those who might want Scotland to have a secure independent power supply). Imports from across the border would wor
192

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 10:42:06
{continued]
In the UK we need nuclear power somewhere. Whether it is based in Scotland or not makes little difference (except ironically to those who might want Scotland to have a secure independent power supply). Imports from across the border would work just as well. But lets be clear, the SNP's policy on nuclear is purely based on taking an opposing view to the labour UK govt. They take a populist view against nuclear; and against many wind developments. They promise renewables which don't yet exist as viable alternatives (wave and tidal), while giving decidedly un-green support for roads, coal and oil. If they were serious about abandoning nuclear power, Hunterston and Torness would not be getting life extensions. Fortunately, it is very likely that the SNP will change their mind about new nuclear, just as labour did when they gained power in the UK.

193

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 10:46:31
#225 see #226. Yes, I know facts are a nusiance but that doesn't alter their veracity. Wind and wave power are not the answer to everything. They are part of the mix and will no doubt improve when the technology improves. However, investment in wave power in the UK is at minimum levels. There is no political will to fund them sufficiently at the moment (my cousin is involved in wave power research - so he should know). Oil and gas prices are soaring to stratospeheric levels - we need to think long and hard about our energy needs - reducing them preferably. Wind and wave have a part to play but coal and nuclear are not going to go away in the medium term.
194

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 10:52:35
#227 Happy to oblige. Please check out the Danish Wind Industry's website www.windpower.org. A bit technical but all the data is there - you can even design your own.
195

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 19/01/2008 11:05:18
#231 Thanks for the link but I was hoping you could be a bit more specific than a general website written in Danish.

The reason I queried your statement was because 23% efficiency seems very low for a wind turbine especially when their efficiency can be 44% at the optimum wind velocity.
196

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 11:17:01
Sorry. There is an English version. Try this link:
http://www.windpower.org/en/core.htm

There is a chart that shows the average efficiency as being a little over 20%.

197

Captain Fantastic,

Glasgow 19/01/2008 12:07:46
#234 Thanks for your comment. I'm not dimissing the alternatives of biomass and carbon capture by any means but, again, these are immature technologies. I didn't mention them because proven information on them is hard to come by. They may well have great promise, I just don't have enough data to form an opinion. Too much of this debate is skewed towards generating energy to meet current needs. In my opinion, as built environment professional, it would be actually easier to reduce demand by encouraging energy saving measures. For example, around 60% of the UK's housing was built pre-1964 and is energy wasteful. Look at the unecessary power we waste (my neighbours with their insecurity lights on 24 hours a day!). Lighting up bridges, public buildings, office lights left on all night, street lights left on when most people have gone to bed. Do something about that and energy demands could be reduced dramatically, then we wouldn't have to cover the countryside with these useless windmills.
198

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 12:24:08
#208 Hen "Nuclear power only produces electricity and can only possibly displace electricity plants, not the bulk of CO2 emissions which come from cars, trucks, factory smokestacks and home furnaces."

This is another popular but inaccurate argument. In fact nuclear power produces heat. Traditionally in the UK this has only been used for electricity production so far, but this need not be the only use of nuclear power.

Inevitably as we move away from fossil-fuelled transport, we will start using more electric vehicles and/or hydrogen powered vehicles. Nuclear power is particularly well suited to hydrogen production because the process of creating hydrogen from water is more efficient at high temperatures. Clearly nuclear power can also reduce emissions by supplying electricity for transport too - such as the trains in France at present; and road transport in the future.

There are even some examples of commercial cargo ships using nuclear power, although historically these have not been economic compared to fossil-fuelled ships. Nuclear powered ice-breakers are highly effective though.

Heat from nuclear power can also be used for industrial applications, including desalination of water, and to provide heat for industrial processes, even (ironically) to aid the extraction and processing of fossil fuel.

Finally heat from nuclear stations can also be used for district heating, which takes the place of home furnaces. The first reactors in Sweden were used specifically for district heating rather than electricity production. In Switzerland nuclear power stations are still used for both electricity and district heating - effectively massive combined heat and power plants. There are plans for a nuclear district heating system in Alaska.

In short, nuclear power can reduce emissions from almost any area of energy use apart from aviation.
199

Captain Fantastic,

Anywhere but here 19/01/2008 13:28:14
#239. VAT - don't get me started. Why should I have to pay 17.5% on improving my home (I'm extending,adding solar panels and cavity filling - green, that's me!). If I built a new house, I don't have to pay any VAT at all on the construction. Madness. VAT on construction should be harmonised at 5% across the board. That would create a level playing field and encourage home maintenance. There have been attempts over the years to persuade the government (labour and tory) to implement this but the treasury always blocks it.
200

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 13:56:49
238 Colin, Glasgow,19/01/2008 12:24:08

There are much safer and more trust worthy methods of producing district heating and the end result is far more palatable.

EG The Poultney Distillery in Wick with their CHP, or:


Perthshire Biomass Plant - PR from HTA Jan 07:

Biomass CHP to power Scottish regeneration scheme

Planning approval has been sought for a large Biomass plant at Muirton Estate, Perthshire, that will provide heat and power to 330 new homes. Woodchip sourced from local sustainable forests and woodchip bi-product will fuel the plant which will maximise the energy efficiency of the housing scheme.

The ambitious environmental sustainability agenda of Perthshire Housing Association and HTA (masterplanners and architects) has driven the scheme to include a Biomass Combined Heat and Power Community Energy Scheme (CHP). The CHP will remove the need for individual dwellings to have their own boilers, meaning that instead of 330 boilers there will be 1 central plant. This is not only more cost effective for residents in terms of their fuel bills – reducing energy costs by over 25% – but also substantially reduces harmful CO2 emissions. Excess heat produced by the generation of electricity will be fed back into warming the houses.

The Combined Heat and Power unit (CHP) is planned as part of the approval for phase 2 of the large scale regeneration of Muirton Estate. This stage of the project will provide local residents with 61 houses, 5 flats and a community flat set within an attractive and practical landscaped environment around a new village centre. All units are for Affordable Rent and are provided with secure back gardens.

At this stage plans for the energy project are well advanced but can only proceed when all funding and statutory approvals are in place, scheduled for March 2007.

The aim of the scheme is to improve the quality of life for the residents and to turn around the perceptions of the area for both the local people and
201

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 14:01:14
CHP and better insulation and building regulations are the future. Hydrogen can be produced using off shore wind farms and solar. There is far to much potential around to put the mill stone of more nuclear round our necks.
Scotland has the chance to be a world leader, it should not be sacrificed to poisonous unreliable expensive corrupt nuclear energy that has lost all credibility for ever.
202

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 14:09:45
Wardog #240 It's horses for courses. Wind, hydro and marine-based renewables do not produce heat directly. Converting their electricity into heat would be hugely inefficient. So they are not appropriate for space heating, industrial process heat, desalination etc; and they would be less efficient than nuclear at producing hydrogen.

My point is that the original statement argued against nuclear because it "only" produces electricity. In fact a more valid argument is that these "cold" renewables only produce electricity, hence they are less adaptable than nuclear.

Granted, there are renewable sources of heat, such as biomass, hot geothermal, and concentrated solar power; but none of these are particularly suited to large-scale operation in Scotland.

On your other points:
1. the waste cost can be estimated with a high degree of confidence. Moreso than dealing with the consequences of fossil fuel waste.
2. any generating plant will need to be replaced periodically. New nuclear plants are designed for a 40-60 year lifespan. New wind plant is designed for a 25 year lifespan, at about half the capital cost compared to nuclear per installed kW, but with less than half the capacity factor. Overall the sustainability of replacing wind plant is probably worse than replacing nuclear plant. (I'm not knocking wind - I'm just saying it's not a big deal)
3. Blame the NGOs for killing the UK nuclear industry. If you pick the right renewable technology there _might_ be a sizeable export market (but nothing compared to nuclear) however any of the new renewables might turn out to be turkeys.
4. I have seen no indication that new nuclear build would detract from investment in renewable research. If you think EDF would suddenly decide to invest more in renewables R&D just because they don't get to build a plant in the UK, think again. They would just build the nuclear plant elsewhere. And, conversely, no amount of cutting-edge research into renewables is going to suddenly pr
203

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 14:12:28
Sweden's energy policy focused on hydroelectricity, which was supplemented by nuclear power starting in 1965.

Sweden has 10 operational power-producing nuclear reactors (see List of nuclear reactors). Sweden's largest powerplant, Ringhals with 4 reactors, delivers approximately 24 TWh a year, the equivalent of 21% of Swedish electricity consumption.[1]

Sweden currently has a policy of phasing out nuclear power by 2010. In spite of extensive efforts to create alternatives to nuclear power, such as fossil fuels, it is not likely that Sweden can complete the nuclear power phase-out by this date. It has been estimated that nuclear power plants in operation will stay in operation until 2050.

In August 2006 three of Sweden's ten nuclear reactors were shut down due to safety concerns following an incident at Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant, in which two out of four emergency power generators failed causing a power shortage. Cooling systems however worked and shutdown was successful without incident.[3] Another reactor in Forsmark and a fifth at Ringhals nuclear power plant have been offline due to planned maintenance work. With five of its ten reactors down, Sweden's power generation capacity is down by almost a fifth. wikinews:Swedish nuclear reactors shut down over safety concerns



On May 1, 1969, a prototype nuclear power plant called Ågestaverket or R3 outside Stockholm was very close to a nuclear meltdown. It was later established that it was a coincidence that this did not happen. This incident was covered up and the public was not made aware of it until April 13, 1993, when the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter published an article about it.[citations needed]

In June, 2005, radioactive water was detected leaking from the nuclear waste store in Forsmark, Sweden. The content of radioactive caesium in the water sampled was ten times the normal value. wikinews:Radioactive leakage at Swedish nuclear waste store.

204

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 14:12:55
[continued]
produce a plant that can deliver the equivalent of a nuclear power station in the next few years. Over the past decade the investment in renewables and energy efficiency research has vastly exceeded investment in nuclear fission everywhere in the OECD apart from France and Japan. The R&D required for new fission plants has already been paid - there is no conflict with renewables.
5. I bet if the nuclear plants were to be state-owned you would be arguing that they should be run privately. In the end, the risk of not having new nuclear plant is greater than the risk of having them. It is not impossible to conceive of a situation where we run without nuclear, but in every other scenario we risk more in terms of cost, energy security, carbon emissions, and even lives, due to continued over-dependence on fossil fuel.

A sustainable future can (and frankly at a global level _will_) include nuclear power.
205

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 14:14:45
'Old technology'

But environmentalists are not happy with the solution. Kenneth Gunnarsson, from the Swedish NGO Office for Nuclear Waste Review, told the BBC News website the waste problem was far from being solved.

"No one in the world has a solution. And the Swedish nuclear industry's solution is an old one they came up with in the 1970s. This is old technology," he says.

The president of Sweden's Society for Nature Conservation, Mikael Karlsson, agrees, and says the industry for too long has concentrated on one solution, and has made compromises on safety when its model has run into problems.

"Swedish legislation requires an assessment of alternative methods and locations, and that is something which the operators have not conducted yet.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4597589.stm
206

HEN BROON 5,

NOT IN SWEDEN 19/01/2008 14:16:57

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/news/sweden-nuclear-closure-040806


Sweden — Sweden has shut down four of its 10 nuclear plants after faults were discovered. A major fault was discovered after a serious incident at the Forsmark nuclear power station, a former director of the plant later said: "it was pure luck there wasn't a meltdown."

The closure of the Swedish plants has removed at a stroke roughly 20 percent of Sweden's electricity supply. Emergency power systems to the Forsmark plant failed for 20 minutes during a power cut. If power was not restored there could have been a major incident within hours.

A former director of the Forsmark plant said, "It was pure luck that there was not a meltdown. Since the electricity supply from the network didn't work as it should have, it could have been a catastrophe."

It appears that the fault in the backup power systems originates from new equipment installed in 1993. Not exactly reassuring that faulty equipment, vital for preventing a meltdown, went undetected for 13 years. The same equipment now uncovered to be faulty is also installed on other nuclear power plants in other countries. Germany is already investigating if the same fault affects its nuclear plants.
207

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 14:18:55
When the going gets hot, nuclear plants stop running

The problems with Swedish nuclear plants come hot on the heels of problems with nuclear power plants in Europe due to the hot dry summer. Two nuclear plants in Germany recently had to reduce output due to the lack of sufficient water for cooling in rivers. If the drought continues many nuclear plants that rely on rivers for cooling water will have to reduce output or shut down.

Luckily Sweden plans to phase out its nuclear power plants in the coming years. Unfortunately a small minority of other European countries like France, Finland and the UK seem determined to rely on dangerous, dirty and expensive nuclear power that can fail dangerously during a power cut and be shut down by droughts.

Recent events expose industry lies about nuclear being a reliable energy source.
208

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 14:28:21
Colin the international nuclear lobby is very very powefull and their influence is won in places like Sweden and Westminster by getting the politicians in their pockets.
If the renewables had half their power the world would be much cleaner and safer. Despite your circular arguments the renewable route is the one that will prevail as the evidence world wide now shows us. Which is why the Arabs and the Nukes are working overtime to stem the tide, well done I admire your tenacity, but you know what happened to Canute.
209

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 15:42:55
Colin I stand by my comments,you may believe you have dismissed them but like most nuclear grail believers you conveniently look the other way when hard facts are presented.I will explain the weaknesses in your arguments below.Have you got or fairfax got any direct first hand knowledge of the nuclear industry and have you got any qualification in physics? I am a PhD IN plasma physics from the Victoria university of Manchester, England and have encountered personally many members of what I have described as the nuclear grail priesthood.

4 elements of the nuclear power station Grail.
Believers in the grail promise to achieve 4 things in building a new nuclear power station.
1 To build the nuclear power station on time.
2 To build a nuclear power station on budget.
3 To build it in such a way that no release of nuclear radiation into the environment will occur and that the plant will safely operate without health damaging effects.
4 That when the plant is old the site will be returned
to something similar to when the station was started.
This is what I mean by believers in the nuclear Grail.

All these promises are made frequently by believers in the grail.IN PRACTISE THE GRAIL IS NEVER ACHIEVED,IT IS A FANTASY.IN THE NIGHTS TEMPLAR OF THE NUCLEAR GRAIL THESE BELIEFS ARE REPORTED TO OTHER BELIEVERS AS TRUTH BUT NEVER HAVE ALL BEEN ACHIEVED. I am embarking on a personal Quest to build some green energy capacity.
210

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 16:37:28
Colin refers to nuclear builds in third world countries claiming that India is building them on budget and on time but fails to refer to the most recent (over budget already)new build in Finland,why no examples from within Europe?. Answer because there aren't any.We can not make an objective analysis of his claim that India has been able to build their power stations on budget and on time because we do'nt know what promises were made,and it is hard to make currency comparisons but if the price of Indian nuclear energy is so cheap which would enable India to have a huge competitive economic advantage,why are so many Indians living in Poverty?He attempts to claim that US nuclear power plants have been successfully returned to Green field sites.What happened to all the nuclear waste? IF the nuclear waste and nuclear plant and underlying soil was all shipped to another site,yes theoretically you could say you had returned the site to something like it was originally BUT you would then have created another polluted site elsewhere.This is what I mean by grail believers looking elsewhere.Until the problem of nuclear waste is solved element 4 of the grail will always be a mirage.There is also the contaminated radioactive steel. If colin believes there have been no deaths from radiation including the 1957 windscale accident,let him believe it and maybe also have a belief in father christmas too.However if he wants to enter the real world,he could study the work of Dr Chris Busby of who has a PhD in this area of research andwho has published many scientific papers on this subject. There are many studies on this subject and most show a correlation between enhanced levels of radiation and enhanced levels of cancer. I have chosen not to live by a nuclear power plant for obvious reasons if Colin thinks they are safe go and live near one. If the MPs think nuclear power plants are safe then build one in the south East near the westminster Parliament. I believe in green energy an
211

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 16:42:01
Wardog #251, the UK govt has already received guidance from the Sustainable Development Commission regarding the CO2 emissions from nuclear power, as I have stated previously. They say, having studied numerous reports, that the CO2 emissions from nuclear power are similar to those of wind, and are falling. The SD commission is hardly a pro-nuclear organisation, but it is clear that the question over CO2 emissions from nuclear is not an issue for them. The IPCC concur with this and advocate nuclear power as a possible technology for combatting climate change.

I would expect the SD Commission and the IPCC to be in a better position to give an unbiased account of the CO2 emissions of nuclear, in comparison the Oxford Research Group which is opposed to nuclear power. Similar to the SNP's "Scottish Energy Review", the Oxford Energy Group cites Storm van Leeuwen as their authority on CO2 emissions from nuclear. If you read up on the subject you will find van Leeuwen comes up again and again as the only source to claim that the CO2 emissions from nuclear are high. His work is widely criticised for making ridiculous assumptions that inflate the figures. Using this as the sole source of evidence is hardly objective.

212

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 16:43:02
Residents of the Scottish isle of Gigha are certainly pointing the way. Rather than rely on the central grid and the big power companies to provide their energy, the islanders have banded together to buy three wind turbines that are now being used to provide power for the island and even generate revenue by selling the excess to the grid.

Gigha residents, who recently bought the island from the landlord, control the whole project and profits are reinvested into the community. Rather than relying on some polluting behemoth hundreds of miles away, the people are literally empowered. And after all, that's what it's all about, isn't it?
213

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 17:19:21
Dr Sutcliffe #253, I'm disappointed that you seem to be changing the requirements for your grail quest already. Now you want an example of a nuclear plant from Europe, because you consider India to be a third world country. Obviously there are no examples of completed third generation reactor builds in Europe because there hasn't been a new build in over a decade. The ongoing build in Finland is first-of-a-kind, and consequently is expected to throw up problems. The supplier plans to build over twenty similar units around the world. If all of these come in over budget then I will concede your point.

If you knew anything about nuclear power, you would know that the site of the Windscale fire was not a civil nuclear power station. It was a nuclear pile used solely for the production of weapons material. I will state again, there has never been an accident at a civil nuclear powerstation in the UK which has caused a radiation death. In fact, I will go further and state that apart from Chernobyl there has never been an accident at a civil nuclear powerstation anywhere in the world which has caused a radiation death. Having searched at length I have been unable to find a counter example, though I would welcome any additional information. There have been a few fatal accidents at research and military reactors, but none at civil nuclear powertstations other than Chernobyl. Would you not agree that this safety record is quite remarkable?

Regarding site decommissioning, you were suggesting that a site could never be returned to its original condition. I gave you an example to the contrary. Obviously the contaminated material was removed from the site. That is what makes the site safe. This is not "looking the other way": it is responsible management of waste materials that completely avoids pollution to the biosphere and harm to health. If only the fossil fuel industry took the same care.
214

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 17:34:44
Hen #250, you say "the international nuclear lobby is very very powerful and their influence is won in places like Sweden and Westminster by getting the politicians in their pockets."

If the nuclear lobby was so powerful in Sweden they would never have had a referendum to phase out nuclear power. Note, the referendum only gave three options for phasing it out at different times. There was no option for keeping it. This hardly seems like a situation rigged by a pro-nuclear lobby. As it was the People voted for the option that retained nuclear for the longest time and allowed existing plants to run their course. The government wanted to get rid of nuclear power, and supported the development of renewable alternatives, but over 20 years these have not emerged as viable replacements. Sweden has impeccable green credentials - they would not be considering expansion of nuclear power if it was not the greenest option.

On a more general note, the fossil fuel lobby is _vastly_ richer and more powerful than the nuclear lobby. Of the ten largest global corporations, nine of them are either oil companies or car manufacturers. There has been huge resistance to any non-fossil energy source, including nuclear power, over the past thirty years. Remember that before suggesting who has "politicians in their pockets".
215

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 17:49:18
I am not arguing for fossil fuel vested interest. You now appear to be adopting a kind of vieled threatening tone,"Remember that before suggesting who has "politicians in their pockets"." You have been firefighting on here for a while it is understandable, your motivation is still unclear.
You also say"This is not "looking the other way": it is responsible management of waste materials that completely avoids pollution to the biosphere and harm to health. If only the fossil fuel industry took the same care." Who is arguing for fossil fuel here. Would you say Dounreay and their safety record was an inspiration for public confidence or:
Playing with fire
It is cruelly ironic that this reinvigorated debate about nuclear technology takes place at a time when we approach the 20-year anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster. Thousands died, hundreds of thousands more have or will develop cancer, and an area covering much of Belarus and parts of Ukraine and Russia remains heavily contaminated. The Chernobyl catastrophe was 400 times more potent than the Hiroshima bomb. Today children are still being born with genetic defects and higher incidences of thyroid cancer and leukemia (see page 16). And the Chernobyl threat is far from over. Few realize that the majority of the reactor's fuel is still intact and active. The concrete and steel sarcophagus covering it was never meant to be permanent. Cracks have already begun to emerge and radioactive seepage has been detected in groundwater. Alexei Yablokov, a leading Russian scientist and president of the Centre for Russian Environmental Policy, warns that a second Chernobyl disaster could be in the making without urgent repairs. 'If it collapses, there will be no explosion, as this is not a bomb, but a pillar of dust containing irradiated (cancer-causing) particles will shoot 1.5 kilometers into the air and be spread by the wind.' Yablokov reports that already small luminescent chain reactions have been observed as rain and snow
216

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 17:51:37
OR:
The Brookhaven National Laboratory in Long Island, New York in 1997 was discovered to have been leaking plumes of radioactive tritium and cobalt-60 for nearly 12 years, unbeknownst to engineers or the local community.
The Davis-Besse plant in Ohio came close to disaster when, in 2002, boric acid ate a 16.5cm hole through a 17cm reactor-vessel head. According to the US-based Nuclear Information and Resource Service (NIRS) and the Union of Concerned Scientists: 'If it had gotten through the remaining half-centimetre of steel that contained the coolant, a meltdown could have occurred.'
In April of this year, enough nuclear waste to 'half-fill an Olympic-size swimming pool' leaked from a cracked pipe at the UK Sellafield plant in Cumbria. The leak remained undetected for nearly nine months.
Just a few weeks ago in late June 2005, it came to light that radioactive waste has leaked into the Baltic Sea from corroded barrels stored at the Forsmark nuclear power plant in Sweden.
And the list goes on. The industry is mired in incompetence and disregard for safety at every stage from uranium mining to the still unresolved waste problem. Nuclear mishaps are much more commonplace than people think. A new nuclear renaissance, such as that already being seen in Asia, only introduces more risks of future accidents.
217

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 18:00:08
The nuclear bandwagon has started rolling again on the back of the Global Warming scare, which has become a massive industry in itself. If the Global Warming scare had not happened the Nuclear industry might have invented it, they could not have asked for a better vehicle for there dicredited dinosouar.
Scare tactics will be deployed again and again. I forecast some power cuts very soon in Scotland just to get the Jocks on board.
There is nothing ruled out in this turf war that has just begun and it will get very messy.
And then there is this:
For the last twelve months dark rumours and wild speculations have engulfed a tiny Shetland island, following the disappearance of a prominent and well-liked member of the local community.

The isle of Unst is the most northerly populated place in Scotland, with around five hundred people living there. These are hardy folk, most of whom work in traditional industries. There was, however, a remarkable exception amongst them.

Sandy Macaulay was a director of the PURE Energy Centre, which employed six people, and was located about a mile from his home in the Hagdale Industrial Estate. Enjoying the isolation of the small close-knit island community, Macaulay was working on the development of wind-power and hydrogen-based renewable energy technologies.

Macaulay was last seen at 11.25pm, a year ago today. He was spotted in his office by an acquaintance. The day before he'd been at a tourist conference in Unst. He'd also attended the opening of a new shop on the island, called The Final Checkout, which was located next door to the PURE Energy Centre.

Macaulay often worked late. Records show that on this particular night his computer was last accessed at 5am. Around 5.20am two cars were seen coming from the Hagdale estate. Sandy Macaulay has never been seen since. Nor have the drivers of the two vehicles been traced
218

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 18:00:43
continued from 253#
I believe in green energy and will be starting the process of becoming an energy producer by installing a solar panel this year. Possibly from www.solartwin.co.uk although I have seen some other panels on Ebay at quite good prices,but you have got to include the whole package including tank changes.
My budget projections suggest this panel kit will pay for itself in approx 8 years. IN regard to #52 #54 and #58 my support for Brian Quayle a prominent Scottish CND leader AND SNP member does not mean I am a "SNP Activist" which I could not be for two reasons (1) I am not and never have been an SNP member although make no secret of my support for SNP objectives as do most English people(2)I live in England.But look forward to visiting Scotland again when it becomes an independent non-nuclear country with a growing green energy sector like Germany whatever fairfax 59# may claim, this is the future.Germany is adopting it as are many other European countries such as Denmark Sweden etc etc. Nuclear energy is a failed belief system from the 1940s and 50s, the nuclear grail is dying and the quest for Green energy treasure is beginning.I stand by my grail,colin 256# because it accurately describes the false claims made by the nuclear industry;you have not proved any of your points. I have not conceded your Indian examples that will be for local people in India to determine.how me a site in England or Scotland that has been returned to green field status. Did this plant run on budget? Where is it? Your US examples are almost certainly incomplete. Address the issue of where the nuclear waste has gone and this is your so called green field site.Merely moving a problem from one place to another does not solve it and yet that is the only way that a nuclear waste can be dealt with.I am now closing my contribution to these discussions and will be doing further research on the purchase and installation of my green energy panel. If grail supporters want to pursue
219

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 18:01:26
As the months have passed all sorts of theories have taken legs. Suicide. Accident. Abduction. Even murder. They all have their backers.

WHO WAS SANDY MACAULAY?

Sandy Macaulay was a man of many talents and a dedicated environmentalist. He was one of the three founding directors of the PURE Energy Centre. PURE were involved in developing and testing a hydrogen-powered eco-friendly car as a viable alternative to reliance on petrol.

The PURE Energy Centre - an offshoot of the ongoing PURE project (Promoting Unst's Renewable Energy) - has built an international reputation in a short space of time. To quote its own website:

"Since the Pure Energy Centre was established in February 2006 it has been involved in off-grid energy projects and renewable hydrogen developments in 4 continents, has delivered specialist training in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies to over 100 students, and has hosted visits, conducted workshops and delivered presentations to businesses, politicians of all parties, investors, engineers, school students, academic researchers, and public agencies."

Sandy Macaulay was no friend of either the oil industry or the car industry. He was an outspoken critic of both. Macaulay had gone on record as saying that oil had "caused wars, massive human rights abuses, corrupted entire political systems, and increased levels of poverty for millions throughout Africa, Asia, South America and the Middle East."

Macaulay had first hand experience of humanitarian disasters brought about by the global greed for oil. In 2002 Macaulay was part of a humanitarian aid mission to Afghanistan following America's military intervention there. In 2004 Macaulay visited Darfur where he condemned oil companies for exacerbating one of the world's worst ever humanitarian crises. Macaualay was also in Iraq following the recent American blitz, war and occupation of the country.

220

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 18:15:42
continued from 261#
their objectives I suggest they apply for a job with the UKAE.BUT I will now get on with building green energy capacity around where I live and supporting others who do the same. A local school has just installed a PV panel onto its roof sponsored by the Coop Bank and the carbon trust. Apparently the coop bank funds such projects. That is why I am coop Bank customer. If they start financing nuclear new build I will join tridos bank instead. AS another example the Alan Turing building,just opened at Manchester University a new build Mathematics and Physics dept building is full of PV photovoltaic panels on the roof. You see green energy is the future and no amount of nuclear grail propaganda will change this.erratum "Show me a site" above missed out S
end 30 30 30
221

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 18:18:57
http://www.shetlandtoday.co.uk/Shetlandtimes/content_details.asp?ContentID=20377


Makes you think?
222

HEN BROON 5,

19/01/2008 18:20:12
263 Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,19/01/2008 18:15:42


A refreshing pleasure to read your posts, thanks.
223

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 19:18:54
I feel this claim below from Colin is so ridiculous I am going to have a
an encore especially as Hen Broon 265# has made some kind remarks and may I say your remarks are also very well informed and thought out.
"256#"If you knew anything about nuclear power, you would know that the site of the Windscale fire was not a civil nuclear power station. It was a nuclear pile used solely for the production of weapons material. I will state again, there has never been an accident at a civil nuclear powerstation in the UK which has caused a radiation death. In fact, I will go further and state that apart from Chernobyl there has never been an accident at a civil nuclear powerstation anywhere in the world which has caused a radiation death. Having searched at length I have been unable to find a counter example, though I would welcome any additional information."
Answer from DR Malcolm H Sutcliffe to these remarks who has spent many hours listening to nuclear grail believers including inside Culham Laboratories at Abingdon near Oxford,somewhere Colin from Glasgow would not be allowed to visit as he would appear not to have any scientific judgement or expertise.
When he uses the phrase radiation death if he means a death caused by radiation, there are hundreds of workers who have worked for the nuclear industry who themselves who believe their cancers have been caused by their jobs. There were deaths at the three mile Island incident in 1979. The claim that Windscale or Sellafield is not connected with the civilian nuclear generation of electricity is not accepted by its operator BNFL. It is a reprocessing plant with THORP and MOX. It currently generates its electricity by Gas but this was not the case in 1957.Sellafield has a connection with both civil and military nuclear power.If you believe no cancer deaths result from the effects of radiation release from the nuclear industry then you are both hopelessly uninformed and brainwashed.But there again some people don't b
224

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 19:21:03
But there again some people don't believe smoking cause cancer so what can you do.
Enough 30 30 30 encore over
225

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 19:21:03
But there again some people don't believe smoking cause cancer so what can you do.
Enough 30 30 30 encore over
226

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 20:46:03
Wardog #266, I know the Sustainable Development Commissions looked at numerous studies on the emissions of CO2, some of them from industry sources, and some of them from anti-nuclear sources. My point is that the SD Commission is in a better position to find the balance between the various sources (in fact given that they take a nominal anti-nuclear stance I wouldn't expect them to give the benefit of the doubt to industry sources). They conclude that the CO2 emissions from nuclear power are low, comparable to renewables, when the full lifecycle is taken into account.

On your final point, the greenhouse gas equivalent emissions and CFC production are listed in Torness's Environmental Product Declaration. (bottom of p12)
http://www.british-energy.com/documents/EPD_Doc_-_Final.pdf

This isn't as important as you might think when it comes to emissions rights, because the emissions rights would be based on direct emissions. Think about it - for example, if an electricity supplier produces coal fired electricity used for nuclear fuel enrichment, the coal powerstation should already be paying for the emissions it generates. To count these emissions also against the nuclear generator would be double accounting. Instead lifecycle emissions would be paid for by the emitter at each stage of the lifecycle.
227

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 21:11:05
Hen #258, I apologise if my tone sounded threatening. All I was implying is that it is as likely that politicians will be in the pockets of the anti-nuclear fossil fuel industry. In fact, more likely, because the fossil fuel lobby is considerably richer and more powerful than the nuclear lobby.

Somebody somewhere has done a grand job driving a wedge between nuclear power and renewables, giving the impression that we must make the choice between one or the other. In fact we need both. And while we argue over it, everyone keeps burning more fossil fuel.
228

Katty,

Bannockburn 19/01/2008 21:20:58


Necessity is the Mother of invention. Ever since Man
lite his cave up with fire, man has found a way to keep the light from going out, and he always will.

Why worry.

We can paint wind turbins to match their surrounds. they do not have to be white, Just do not ask Labour Controlled Stirling council to pick the colour ,
They managed to ruin a great castle by painting the Great Hall, White Gold plus they erected a make a fool of statue at the base of The Wallace Monument.

Get rid of them quick before any more damage is done to this city
229

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 21:37:36
Dr Sutcliffe #267, beyond the rhetoric, you seem to be agreeing that the Windscale fire incident in 1957 did not occur at a nuclear powerstation (the site did not become a nuclear PowerStation until later - it was a military site at the time of the fire).

Who died at Three Mile Island? There were no casualties as far as I am aware.

You have not suggested any other specific fatal incidents apart from Three Mile Island, but are willing to hint and suggest that there might be other radiation fatalities. Belief that cancers have been caused is not sufficient. Has the cause been proved? COMARE looked into the link between cancer and nuclear powerstations in detail, and in fact undertook some of the biggest cancer studies in history, but found no causal link.

Your final suggestion, that this is in any way similar to the risk from smoking, is disingenuous. Have you any idea how much radiation you would have to be exposed to in order to create the same risk as active smoking? I suspect not. I will give you a clue, it is similar to the dose received by survivors of the atomic bombings in Japan.
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2458/7/49
Are you suggesting that anybody has been exposed to this level of radiation by the UK nuclear industry?

If there is a health risk from the low levels of radiation released by the nuclear industry (and there is no empirical evidence of this) the average exposure is several hundred times lower than average medical exposure; and several thousand times lower than average background radiation.
http://www.hpa.org.uk/radiation/publications/hpa_rpd_reports/2005/hpa_rpd_001.htm
230

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 22:53:34
Wardog #274, by 2020 the CO2 savings from nuclear would indeed be small, but this is not surprising because during that period many stations will go offline, and few would be built. Being cynical I would say the 2020 timeframe is chosen specifically to leverage this point, and make nuclear seem irrelevant. The point of new nuclear build now is to continue CO2 reductions beyond 2020, when it will be difficult for renewables to maintain momentum.

Certainly, renewables can be deployed very quickly in the next decade. But once wind power reaches 20% it becomes significantly more expensive to deploy because it requires more backup and creates problems for the grid. Above 30% it would be liability. The same applies to any intermittent renewable source. This is not to say that progress will stop, but the growth in renewables will tend to level out. In addition, after 2020 the first generation wind farms will be at the point of requiring replacement, which will eat up manufacturing capacity.

I don't know if you read the UK govts recent consultation document on nuclear power, but it made it very clear that if energy suppliers are not permitted to build nuclear stations, they will build fossil fuel stations instead. There is no way that they will go all-renewable. The best we could hope for in a non-nuclear scenario would be success with carbon capture; but there is a real chance that this won't work, and even if it does it is expensive (compared to nuclear) and produces ten times the CO2 (compared to nuclear, wind, or hydro).

New nuclear build now is not just about reducing carbon emissions for 2020, but is about continued reduction though 2030 to 2050. On the other hand, phasing out nuclear would turn an emission cut into a significant emission increase, which would need to be filled and would jeopardise any chance of meeting emissions targets.

As stated previously, over the same timeframe we have to expect that the demand for electricity will increase substanti
231

Colin, Glasgow,

19/01/2008 22:55:32
[continued... argh]
substantially, because the only way to seriously cut transport emissions is to move to electric (or hydrogen) vehicles. Relying solely upon renewables to achieve all of this is a high risk strategy.

I agree, in Scotland's case, nuclear is not absolutely essential, but it would reduce the risk of continued dependence on fossil fuels. The risks and legacy attached to nuclear are nothing compared to the problem of fossil fuel.

232

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 23:23:23
This really is going to have to be my encore.You are wrong; there were deaths at three mile Island.Even the so called byproduct of the nuclear industry ie DU depleted Uranium has hugely increased the rate of cancer in both former Yugoslavia and in Southern Iraq.SEE www.cadu.org.uk. If you still don't believe radiation causes cancer go and discuss it with an oncologist I think they are called ie cancer specialists. And if you don't believe the nuclear industry releases radiation into the environment why does it keep turning up on the beaches near Dounrey and Sellafield. It is a bit like me denying that mining coal doesn't create lung disease as doubtlessly mine owners did in Victorian Britain.. Of course it does and of course those who work in the nuclear industry can attribute some of their cancers to exposure to radiation.Actually read some of the work of Dr Chris Busby some of whose work has appeared in the BMJ and has been peer reviewed.IF scientific peer reviewed articles in the BMJ are rhetoric just because they don't chime in with nuclear Grail beliefs then too bad.If you want to claim that black is white then what can we do. This has always been the problem with nuclear Grail believers. What does the phrase you used "nuclear pile" 256# above mean?. I certainly do not concede that Sellafield has no connection with the generation of civilian nuclear energy that is why it is operated by BNFL nor do I concede other people since have not been killed by radiation obtained from your so called nuclear pile, which used to gain electricity by nuclear means til it switched to gas Colin get into the real world and join the 21century Quest for green energy treasure.www.solartwin.com/co.uk
233

Dr Malcolm H Sutcliffe PhD Physics,

19/01/2008 23:42:12
DEATH TO THE NUCLEAR GRAIL MAY THE QUEST FOR A HUGE EXPANSION IN GREEN ENERGY BEGIN.VOTE TO REJECT NEW BUILD NUCLEAR POWER 63 TO 58.
quoted from this newspaper
By HAMISH MACDONELL
Scottish Political Editor
THE Scottish Parliament voted narrowly last night to block any new nuclear power stations north of the Border – as Alex Salmond was warned that his legacy might be the "lights going out" across Scotland.
MSPs voted by 63 to 58 to reject nuclear power,.....

note the use of the word "might" and note the rejected Grail below.

4 elements of the nuclear power station Grail.
Believers in the grail promise to achieve 4 things in building a new nuclear power station.
1 To build the nuclear power station on time.
2 To build a nuclear power station on budget.
3 To build it in such a way that no release of nuclear radiation into the environment will occur and that the plant will safely operate without health damaging effects.
4 That when the plant is old the site will be returned
to something similar to when the station was started.
This is what I mean by believers in the nuclear Grail.

All these promises are made frequently by believers in the grail.IN PRACTISE THE GRAIL IS NEVER ACHIEVED,IT IS A FANTASY.IN THE NIGHTS TEMPLAR OF THE NUCLEAR GRAIL THESE BELIEFS ARE REPORTED TO OTHER BELIEVERS AS TRUTH BUT NEVER HAVE ALL BEEN ACHIEVED. I am embarking on a personal Quest to build some green energy capacity.
MSPs voted by 63 to 58 to reject nuclear power,.....
colin and wardog note reality! IF you can't beat them join them eh
234

Colin, Glasgow,

20/01/2008 11:14:03
Dr Sutcliffe #279, I am all in favour of green energy, which is why I support both renewables and nuclear power. By opposing nuclear power you set an unachievable target for renewables and, whether deliberately or unwittingly, support the continued over-use of fossil fuel. Air pollution from fossil fuel kills upwards of 25,000 people in the UK per year. Nuclear power, to a first approximation, kills zero per year.

You asserted that there were deaths at Three Mile Island. I asked who died. You simply asserted that some people died, with no evidence. Some evidence would be appreciated.

I am not denying that radiation can cause cancer. At high doses the cancer risk is about 4% to 6% per 1000mSv of exposure. That is a very large exposure. The population around Chernobyl received a total lifetime excess dose of around 200mSv which according to the WHO increases the chance of fatal cancer and associated mortality by about 1%. At levels below about 50mSv there is not good epidemiological evidence of an increased cancer risk.

Normal background radiation averages about 2.7mSv per year in the UK. In theory, the linear no-threshold model predicts this would present cancer risk of about 0.01% per year, or 1 in 10,000. The background level varies up to three times that average in places like Aberdeen. There is no evidence that this variation in background radiation has any effect on cancer risk.

The average level of exposure from discharges from nuclear and industrial sites is several thousand times less than background radiation. (You can vary background radiation yourself by more than this amount by choosing whether to open the windows of your house to let the Radon out.) There is no evidence that this tiny exposure causes cancer, and even if we extend the linear non-threshold model down to tiny doses, the theoretical risk would be in the order of tens of millions to one.
235

Colin, Glasgow,

20/01/2008 11:15:36
[continued]
We were discussing the risks associated with civil nuclear powerstations. Your example of military uses of depleted uranium are irrelevant. Regarding windscale fire, you have a PhD in physics but don't know what a nuclear pile is? A nuclear pile is essentially a reactor. However it is not a nuclear powerstation because it does not have the associated steam generation plant attached. Nuclear piles were used exclusively to manufacture materials such as plutonium for weapons. The Windscale fire in 1967 occurred in an air-cooled nuclear pile, which did not have any containment. It was not a nuclear powerstation, and is not remotely relevant to the safety of modern powerstations.

I am not denying that the nuclear industry releases radiation. What I am saying is that it presents no significant risk to health. Even the illegal discharge of particles that have been found on Dounreay beach presents no significant risk. The SEPA report shows that the cancer risk from inhaling one of the significant particles is similar to the risk from 1 year of background radiation. And, more to the point, the chances of inadvertently inhaling one are literally 1 in a trillion, even for somebody digging regularly on the beach. Consider how much media coverage this has got, compared to the absurdly low risk.
http://www.sepa.org.uk/pdf/radioactivity/dounreay/fragment_encounter_likelihood.pdf

Your prejudice against nuclear power seems to be founded solely on baseless assumptions and an appeal to folksy "common knowledge". These misconceptions are widespread, and the media does little to counter them, but they are false. In terms of actual_harm_caused, the nuclear industry has an impeccable safety record.
236

Colin, Glasgow,

20/01/2008 11:21:49
#282, typo: I meant 1957 not 1967

 

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