Election massacre looms for Labour in the east

LABOUR could be left with only three seats in the east of Scotland after the next general election, following a meltdown in the party's core support, The Scotsman has been told.

A faltering economy, strong Conservative and SNP support and the expenses scandal have placed all of Labour's Edinburgh seats under serious threat, with others in the Lothians and Central Scotland also in jeopardy.

The former Labour leader of Edinburgh City Council, Donald Anderson, admitted there were very real worries that the party might lose seats right across the east coast.

Labour has long had a stronghold in the east, stretching from Edinburgh through to Falkirk and Livingston in the Central Belt and over the Forth to the old mining areas of Fife.

But the party is preparing for a disastrous set of returns at the next election. Labour could lose a total of eight of its 11 east coast seats.

This is partly because of a surge in support for both the SNP and the Tories, but also because of the Westminster expenses scandal, which has ensnared a number of Scottish Labour MPs.

Michael Connarty was previously seen as safe in Linlithgow and East Falkirk, but he has been criticised for the size of some of his claims – including a £250 alarm clock.

Jim Devine, the MP for Livingston, was also named in the expenses scandal for submitting an invoice for rewiring his house from a company that reportedly does not exist.

Nigel Griffiths, the MP for Edinburgh South, admitted earlier this year that he had cheated on his wife with a woman in his office in the House of Commons, after photographs of the tryst appeared in a tabloid newspaper.

Chancellor Alistair Darling is deeply embroiled in the allowances row, first for "flipping" the designation of his second home four times and then for claiming back the costs of employing an accountant to complete his tax returns.

The Scotsman revealed yesterday how senior Labour figures now believe Mr Darling should be deselected or voted out of office. But some Labour figures believe the threat is much wider.

A senior Labour source in Edinburgh said Mr Darling would be "hammered" by the electorate simply because he was the Chancellor, while almost everybody in the party now believed that Mr Griffiths would be defeated because he had been "caught with his pants down".

"Most of us think it is all over for him," the source said.

Mr Anderson said: "I think the whole expenses scandal has engulfed the body politic and what you have got is a very, very difficult situation for the government and for the Labour Party."

He added: "It was always going to be a hard election. This is going to make it even tougher. Labour will find it difficult to hang on to its seats. I think that any seat at the moment is under threat. It would be a very brave person who predicted we were going to hang on to particular seats at the moment."

And he added: "Everybody fears we will be seats down at the general election. The question is, how bad is the damage going to be and how quickly can we re-build in time for the Scottish Parliament elections."

Opinion is divided, even among political experts, as to how bad the Labour result will be in east Scotland.

Independent election experts said that, while most Labour MPs in the east could withstand a 10 per cent swing against the party, the current predictions of a 15 per cent swing to the SNP would unseat all Labour MPs except the Prime Minister.

Another assessment of recent opinion polls suggests that, if current projections continue, three of Labour's Edinburgh seats would go, potentially leaving only Alistair Darling in place in Edinburgh South West, although his central role in the expenses scandal could create a greater swing.

Labour candidates might be able to blame the SNP-Liberal Democrat-controlled city council for local problems in Edinburgh and the SNP-run Scottish Government for Scotland-wide failings, but these issues are just not getting through at the moment because of the deluge of bad news from Westminster.

And with Labour in Edinburgh seen as the main architect of the unpopular tram scheme, that might have limited effect anyway.

The rolling poll in Scotland used by the Conservatives to judge the public mood currently has Labour at 29.5 per cent, the Nationalists at 31.25 per cent, Conservatives at 20.5 per cent and the Lib Dems standing at 13.5 per cent.

Using the online seat predictor Electoral Calculus, these figures paint a bleak picture for Labour. In the east of Scotland it would mean Labour lose Aberdeen North, Dundee West, Edinburgh East, Edinburgh North and Leith, and Ochil and South Perthshire to the SNP, and Stirling and Edinburgh South to the Conservatives.

However, both the SNP and Conservatives believe that there will be greater swings against individual Labour MPs who have been caught up in the expenses row and other controversies.

This means that Falkirk, Livingston, East Lothian, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, and Alistair Darling's Edinburgh South West will all be dragged into the dogfight.

Meanwhile, more Labour seats also become marginals where a handful of votes could decide the final outcome. In the east this includes Aberdeen South, which could in theory become a four-way marginal.

Neil Hudson, a vet who is the Conservative candidate for Edinburgh South, believes that he has a good chance in a seat his party once held.

"One of the most important factors in Edinburgh East and other Scottish constituencies is that people believe we can win again," he said. "It means that a Conservative vote is no longer considered a wasted vote."

But this is also a seat where the Lib Dems, second in 2005, believe they can win.

Lib Dem Mike Pringle, the MSP for Edinburgh South, said: "We have a strong presence and our support is now rising because we have not been as damaged by the expenses scandal as other parties."

And the SNP candidate in Edinburgh North and Leith, Calum Cashley, said he believed the party was being aided by tactical voting and Labour voters planning to stay at home.

"I'm sure there is going to be more tactical voting next time in Scotland than we have ever seen before," he said.

"In Labour areas the reaction is one of resignation. Some are coming over to us and others suggest they won't vote at all."

A Labour Party spokesman insisted that the party was in a better position than the opposition made out.

"The choice at the next election will be between David Cameron and Gordon Brown as prime minister," he said.

"We know people are angry with politicians, but people will understand the threat from a Conservative government to their day-to-day lives."

Six reasons Labour is struggling – and none of the problems has a 'quick fix'

1 EXPENSES SCANDAL

The continuing revelations that Labour MPs claimed thousands of pounds from the taxpayer in expenses claims for luxury furniture, fixtures and fittings and food has been damaging.

However, the disclosures that some kept on claiming for mortgages after they had been repaid and that Cabinet ministers "flipped" the designation of their main home, apparently to their advantage, has hit the party hard. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is up to his neck in the scandal.

2 ECONOMIC CRISIS

The economic crisis happened on Labour's watch, so although opinion is divided over the root causes, Labour ministers have been the target of much of the public anger.

The loss of one of Scotland's biggest banks and the partial nationalisation of the other has not helped, nor has Mr Brown's presence in the Treasury for ten years – the Prime Minister has not been able to blame anyone else for the handling of the economy.

3 SNP SUCCESS

The decline in Labour support in Scotland has coincided with the rise of the SNP – the Nationalists' 2007 Scottish Parliament election success allowed the party to challenge Labour from a position of authority.

The Nationalists are still enjoying strong support in Scotland and, while this continues, Labour will struggle to make headway.

4 THE TORIES GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER

Labour's success through the last decade came as the Conservatives struggled to cope with opposition.

William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard all came and went as party leader without being able to make a real impression on Labour's electoral lead. But, with the election of David Cameron the Tories are last managed to get their act together.

Mr Cameron has put the party into a position where they are seen as a government in waiting. The presence of a real alternative is causing Labour real problems.

5 TRAMS

Labour candidates in Edinburgh at the next general election may try to blame Edinburgh City Council for problems around the capital because Labour no longer runs the council.

But the attacks on the SNP-Lib Dem administration are likely to be overshadowed by continuing problems with the city's tram scheme – backed solidly by Labour before and after the party lost control of the council.

The trams may end up being a Labour success story, but while large parts of the city are snarled in roadworks they will not be an electoral asset for it.

6 LACK OF ACTIVISTS

Labour used to be able to call on an army of councillors and activists to canvass and bolster support ahead of elections.

Now, though, that number has dropped off. Especially the Iraq War, many became disillusioned by policies and others by the expenses scandal. A large number of councillors were also lost in the switch-over to proportional representation in 2007.

The end result is a lack of support on the ground at a time when Labour will have to fight on more fronts, in more constituencies against a stronger range of opposition parties than they have in recent memory.

Analysis: Polls show PM could be last man standing

LABOUR MPs in the Lothians, Falkirk and Fife might well have been comforting themselves over recent days that, however low their party might have sunk in the polls, they at least were not in any imminent danger of losing their seats.

After all, only two constituencies in the area would normally be regarded as being remotely marginal – Edinburgh South (0.9 per cent majority) and Edinburgh North and Leith (5.0 per cent majority).

In both cases, it is the Liberal Democrats who are in second place, and the polls consistently suggest they are no longer the force they were at the time of the last UK election.

True, Nigel Griffiths in Edinburgh South also has the Conservatives to worry about. Although placed third, the Tories were only nine percentage points behind last time around, and could still leapfrog into first place, even if there is no more than a modest Cameron bounce north of the Border.

Elsewhere, however, Labour MPs in the region all enjoy majorities of 15 points or more. Indeed, the smallest lead that any of them enjoy over the Nationalists is no less than 23 points – the position of Gavin Strang in Edinburgh East.

Even there, the SNP were third last time around, while Mr Strang is the one Labour MP in the area who has said he will not stand again.

So, given this backdrop, it should come as little surprise that, although the last two reliable polls of Westminster voting intentions in Scotland both suggested the SNP were only two or three points behind Labour nationally, only Edinburgh South looked to be in any imminent danger of being lost.

But those Scottish polls were conducted at the end of April. Since then, Westminster has been engulfed by the row about MPs' expenses.

According to recent British polls, that row has cost Labour dear. The party's average UK-wide poll rating now stands at only 24 per cent.

If we look at the innards of those more recent British polls, it seems clear the expenses row has eroded Labour support in Scotland too – to the benefit of the SNP.

No individual British poll interviews enough Scottish respondents to provide us with a reliable statement of party strengths north of the Border. But if we gather together all of the British polls conducted over the past month, collectively they give us the views of nearly 600 people. Although still less than ideal, this is sufficient to give a broad indication of where things now stand.

And the figures suggest that, whereas a month ago the swing to the SNP was of the order of 10 per cent, now it may be as much as 15 per cent.

That makes a big difference. While nearly every Labour MP in Edinburgh and its environs could withstand a 10 per cent swing to the Nationalists, only Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath could resist a 15 per cent swing.

So the expenses row has suddenly cast a shadow over the future of nearly every Labour MP in the region.

They might be wise to explain their own expenses to their voters forthwith.

• John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow.