FOR most of the year, the race for the presidency has been confusing for both parties: An amorphous cast of candidates seeking to distinguish themselves and win attention from voters, donors and the media.
THE DEMOCRATS OBAMA AND CLINTONThat phase of the campaign ended decisively last week. With the Republican Rudolph Giuliani and Democrat John Edwards withdrawing from the race, the two parties now have what is, in effect, clean, t
wo-way battles for the nomination as they roar towards Tuesday, when more than 20 states will vote.
And rarely has either party witnessed a contest between two such formidable and evenly matched candidates.
In senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Democrats have two candidates of unusual talent and political dexterity. Their political bases are equally formidable, as is their ability to raise money. They are both celebrity candidates and historical figures – Obama, of Illinois, is seeking to become the first black president, and Clinton, of New York, the first woman – and they have shown a definite capacity to draw a crowd.
In Senator John McCain of Arizona and former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Republicans have two candidates who are scrappy and nimble campaigners. Both have also had borne the burden of reading their own premature political obituaries this year. But they have yet to inspire the enthusiasm among Republicans that Clinton and Obama have inspired among Democrats.
Whatever their political appeals, they have survived until this week in part because Republican voters found so many other players in the field so flawed.
With the terrain starkly different from the preceding battles, the four are now moving into the unknown territory of what is amounting to a national primary that will test their political dexterity – and their endurance – like nothing has in the campaign so far.
EVEN before last Wednesday morning, the Democrat candidates had been befuddled by the sheer strategic challenge presented by Super Tuesday. As if things were not complicated enough, John Edwards dropped out of the race, forcing the other campaigns to return to the drawing boards.
The Clinton campaign offered a glimpse of how wide it views the playing field by buying airtime in a dozen states for advertisements on the economy. Senator Barack Obama's advisers say he is advertising in 19 states.
Included on the Clinton list is California – the state that is viewed by aides to both candidates as the big battlefield – and New York, Clinton's home state. That decision reflects the strong challenge Obama is making to Clinton there. (By contrast, Clinton has yet to buy any advertising time in Illinois, Obama's home state.)
Obama and Clinton are looking at some of the same states as big targets, particularly California, New Mexico, Missouri and Arizona. Obama is also looking to states that have caucuses rather than primaries – he has tended to do well in caucus states – as well as Kansas, where his mother was born, and Minnesota, a state with a strong anti-war sentiment.
Clinton is looking first to California, New York, New Jersey and Arkansas, and some of her associates suggested she might have a chance in Oklahoma with the withdrawal of Edwards, a former North Carolina senator.
Both sides are moving to assess whether Edwards will make an endorsement, and if so, what impact that might have. Edwards has so far not said what he will do, but aides to Obama and Clinton said they planned to push themes in the days ahead that were directed at supporters of Edwards, who are now in the market for a new candidate.
Clinton will put an emphasis on health care and poverty issues, both of which were central to Edwards' appeal. Obama will emphasise the populist refrain that entered his campaign speeches in the final days of the Iowa competition, and that sounded like an echo of Edwards' appeal.
"At the end of the day, he was a change candidate and we are a change candidate," said David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Obama. One rumour, if true, would put Obama clear – the backing of Al Gore. The extremely influential former vice-president and green champion is said to have been holding talks with the senator, although he has insisted he will not endorse anyone.
IssuesTHE economy has overtaken practically every other issue in the Democratic race. The new advertisement titled "Free Fall" is one of two Clinton raised across the country last week to highlight this theme. The campaign itineraries of Clinton and Obama are filled with economic round tables, discussions about the mortgage crisis and job losses. Clinton began zeroing in on the economy first; Obama was first to offer a tax rebate plan designed to stimulate spending.
Yet Obama is suddenly placing a renewed emphasis on his opposition to the Iraq war. Through targeted television commercials, as well as speeches, Obama is seeking to remind voters that Clinton supported the war in Iraq. His big name supporters are joining in, too, with Senator Edward Kennedy raising Iraq in speeches he is making on Obama's behalf.
Health care remains a critical issue, especially with the exit from the race of Edwards, who had made it a top priority. Advisers to Clinton and Obama said that they viewed health care as a strong way to court Edwards' supporters, and that they would be hitting the issue accordingly.
MoneyTHE Tuesday contests will test the financial resources of Clinton and Obama as never before. They are wrestling with how to pay for big television advertising campaigns, cross-country travel, get-out-the-vote campaigns targeted to the districts, and polling.
The candidates seem evenly matched financially although Obama had some stunning news last week: he had managed to raise a staggering $32m (£16.3m) in January from an ever-increasing donor base, aides said.
Obama's $1m-a-day rate is the largest haul ever by a presidential candidate during a competitive primary.
The outpouring of money will permit Obama to boost staff and extend advertising to states way beyond Tuesday's contests.
"If this ends up going through March and April we think we are going to have the resources necessary to conduct vigorous campaigns in every state to come," said Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe.
Obama and Clinton have been aggressive fundraisers; each raised more than $100m last year.
Yet they are shovelling it out as quickly as they are taking it in.
Clinton's end-of-year finance report showed she raised $26.5m in individual contributions during the last three months of the year. She spent $39.2m during the period and in total had $37.9m left as the year began. Clinton reported an end-of-year debt of nearly $5m.
Obama reported raising $22.8m from October through to December. He spent nearly $41m during that period and ended the year with $18.6m in the bank. He had a $792,681 debt.
THE REPUBLICANSMcCAIN AND ROMNEYAS OF now, it does not look as if television advertising will be as prominent on the Republican side as on the Democratic.
John McCain is doing something that is very much in character with the way he has run his political life, but that is also a bow to the fact that he does not have the financial resources of Mitt Romney. He is relying on the so-called free media – interviews, news conferences and rallies – to press his message home. There will be some television advertising, his aides have said, but it will be modest.
"We will be communicating to as many voters as possible through the free media," said Steve Schmidt, a senior adviser to McCain.
"We'll be doing some advertising. But this notion – I've heard some reporters say to me today that Romney has a huge resource advantage going into Tuesday's contests – well, the days of his resources being a significant advantage are gone."
McCain is planning to focus most of his resources on the states with big delegate troves: California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri.
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain for president last week, giving him a major boost. Schwarzenegger praised the Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner-of-war as a strong leader with good security credentials who is capable of reaching across the political divide.
Going into Florida, Romney had suggested he would not restrain himself from drawing on his vast personal resources to finance more television advertising.
Romney's aides said the focus now, after his loss in Florida, would be the protracted fight for delegates, while trying to rally conservatives who are suspicious of McCain to his side. Romney's campaign is looking to compete vigorously in California, with its heavy stock of delegates.
Beyond that, Romney is looking to Utah, where his fellow Mormons are concentrated, as well as states holding caucuses or state conventions – such as Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia and Minnesota – where a relatively small number of people, who tend to be party activists and more conservative voters, will determine the outcome.
Romney may have a problem with the powerful evangelical vote. His Mormon religion is viewed as a cult by many evangelicals.
One decision that remains up in the air is what to do about the delegate-rich north-eastern states – New York, New Jersey and Connecticut – with their expensive media markets. The Romney campaign is holding out the possibility of spending money there to force McCain to do the same to deplete his cash.
Watch a third Republican candidate, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, try to make his mark in his home state, Arkansas, and a fourth, Ron Paul of Texas, to make a big play to win the caucuses in Alaska. If either are left standing at the end of the race, however, there will have to be a seismic shift in the political map of America.
IssuesThe race has in recent weeks been something of a tug-of-war between McCain and Romney over whether national security or the economy should be at the top of the voters' agenda. McCain viewed the war as his strongest issue, given his national security background, and Romney claimed the economy, given his background in business.
But one of the most striking findings of the surveys of Republicans voters leaving the polls in Florida is that while they overwhelmingly thought the economy was the toughest issue facing the country, they thought McCain was better qualified to deal with it. Romney is planning to turn his attention to the housing crisis in California; a critical question for his political success is the extent to which he can get voters to view him as the better steward of the economy.
New electoral territory could mean new issues. McCain talked often about climate change in New Hampshire but pulled back from that theme in South Carolina. Environmental concerns could be more prominent in California, and as he appeals to more moderate voters in the north-east. Illegal immigration will inevitably be batted around in California, but the Republicans may want to be careful: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has expressed his displeasure at his party's tough line over the issue.
MoneyMcCAIN, whose campaign nearly ran out of cash and ended the year with only $2.9m, has recently been experiencing the financial resurrection he had always predicted would happen once he won a few contests.
Money is beginning to flow in – sometimes $1m a day – since his New Hampshire victory. The campaign has raised so much that it may not accept public financing, as it once said it might be forced to do.
Romney, with a personal fortune estimated at up to $250m, has shown no reluctance to open up his wallet to get him where he is. Donors have given him $45m; he has kicked in $35m of his own money so far.
The two big questions in the week ahead: Will Romney keep going back to his bank account? And will McCain's convincing win in Florida rally the party's contributors behind him? McCain had $12.8m in the bank at the start of the year.
The full article contains 2015 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
