Wendy Alexander faces conference test

Wendy Alexander wants to persuade the Labour Party that it has to change if it is to regain power from the SNP. But, asks Political Editor Ian Swanson, will she get the chance to see any changes through?

WENDY ALEXANDER faces a major test this weekend as she attends her first Scottish Labour conference as leader.

Given her trials and tribulations since taking over from Jack McConnell, it is sometimes difficult to remember she has only been in post for six months.

Speculation continues on how much longer she might remain there. Even some of her supporters are unwilling to predict if she will lead Labour into the next Scottish Parliament elections in 2011.

Ms Alexander is generally held to have improved her performance at First Minister's Questions in recent weeks, but an opinion poll earlier this month gave Alex Salmond an amazing 75 per cent lead over her in the approval ratings.

Ms Alexander was unopposed when she stood for the leadership last summer, but her way has been piled high with obstacles since then.

She faced a big enough task at the outset – helping Labour recover from the shock of the election defeat, leading an effective opposition to the new SNP government and building up the party ready to challenge for power again.

Then along came the leadership campaign donation controversy, and in particular a £950 contribution from Jersey businessman Paul Green. He was not legally allowed to donate as he is not a UK voter.

It was a paltry sum compared to the amounts at stake in funding rows affecting Labour at UK level, but it virtually paralysed her leadership while the Electoral Commission spent more than two months investigating it, before deciding not to report her to the fiscal.

No sooner was that resolved than she was plunged into a new controversy, when unhelpful comments from Westminster colleagues undermined her cross-party initiative to look at more powers for Holyrood.

Labour also suffered the humiliation of seeing the SNP building bridges with Scotland's local authorities and persuading them – Labour-led councils, too – to freeze the council tax for next year. Labour-controlled Stirling went even further than the SNP wanted and cut its tax levels.

The party was then ridiculed for its behaviour over the SNP's budget – it proposed an amendment which the SNP accepted, but then abstain anyway.

Despite all this, Labour politicians are expecting an upbeat mood when the conference starts in Aviemore tomorrow.

One source said: "Wendy lost four months because of the donations and money stuff. It feels like that time was just taken away from her, but everyone loves a survivor. She has come through something which Henry McLeish and David McLetchie didn't."

A senior Labour MSP says Ms Alexander has been getting better at First Minister's Questions. "She has had Alex Salmond in some difficulty over the SNP's local income proposals the last couple of weeks. The tide is beginning to turn. She is on the up now."

Others say Ms Alexander still has a lot to prove. One internal critic says: "The MSP group seems to be united behind her, but the membership is not.

"They never got to vote for her in the first place so they don't feel any affinity. Many of them are still not happy about the donations issue; they feel she has done something wrong."

He says Ms Alexander has to give the speech of her life when she addresses conference on Saturday, and must spend the weekend "dazzling" members.

"A good speech is not enough. She must convince them she is going to take them forward. She has a window of about 15 months until the European elections in June 2009. That will be her litmus test."

Ms Alexander tried setting the scene for the conference with a pamphlet published last weekend, setting out her vision, ranging from expanding devolution to more zero-tolerance policing and personalised health care.

She admits Labour now faces "one of the toughest challenges in our history – a Scottish National Party in government" and confesses the SNP beat Labour last May because "they managed to capture a mood in Scotland that wanted change".

The pamphlet – entitled "Change is what we do" – insists Labour has always been about change and accuses Scottish Nationalists of being, at heart, "deeply conservative".

MS Alexander may well cover similar themes in her speech to conference. A party insider says she is likely to focus on accepting the need for change, going back to the party's core principles.

Labour still faces an uphill struggle against an SNP government which seems to be maintaining its popularity. A senior source insists the party is pursuing the right course though, and that perseverance will pay off. The source said: "It's like trying to get a car started in the cold, you just keep waiting for it to catch."

It could be a long wait, but the next elections are not due until 2010 and a lot can happen between now and then.The European elections may prove a crucial test too – it was a poor result for the SNP in the last Euro poll which led to John Swinney's resignation as leader.

But a Labour insider says: "You can't pin the European elections on Wendy whether we succeed or fail – all sorts of Westminster and international issues will influence them as well as what's happening here in Scotland."

Consideration also has to be given to a potential Westminster general election, which must be held by the end of 2010. A bad result there for Gordon Brown could be bad news for Ms Alexander, who has always been seen as a close ally of the Prime Minister.

Will she lead Labour into the next Holyrood elections? A party insider says: "She is doing much better, but there are a lot more rungs on the ladder before we can say that."