Liberal amount of election fever

IT hasn't captured many headlines, but there's an election on - Liberal Democrats are choosing a new leader to replace the departed Sir Menzies Campbell. Ballot papers went out to party members this week and the result will be known on December 17.

Home affairs spokesman Nick Clegg started out as the favourite and he is still tipped to beat rival Chris Huhne, the party's environment spokesman, but the contest has been closer than many expected.

The Lib Dems have not been doing that well in the polls recently, so it may not seem to matter much who wins.

But if the next Westminster general election turns out to be close and neither Labour nor the Tories have a majority, whoever the new Lib Dem leader could find himself negotiating to form a coalition government.

Clegg has the backing of a majority of the Lib Dem MPs, but interestingly more of the party's MSPs are supporting Huhne.

One source says: "A lot of the MSPs also backed Chris Huhne the last time against Ming. There's a bit of a feeling of 'You got it wrong last time, now it's time to give our guy a chance'.

"There was a lazy assumption that because Nick had the support of key figures in the party he would walk it, but members don't like being told who to pick. They don't like things to be taken for granted."

One reason for the low level of interest in the contest may be that the candidates are so similar - both former Euro-MPs, both relatively new to the Commons, both educated at the same public school and with little to draw between them on policy.

Until last weekend the contest threatened to pass entirely unnoticed by the wider public.

But a spat between the candidates on live TV thrust the contest briefly into the news bulletins.

The row was sparked by a briefing document entitled "Calamity Clegg" supplied to the BBC by Chris Huhne's campaign. Confronted with the document during a joint TV appearance, Huhne protested he knew nothing of it - but then launched an outspoken attack on his opponent, accusing him of "flip-flopping" on issues.

One Edinburgh Lib Dem says the episode will damage Huhne.

"When I saw that, I swung from possibly supporting Chris to definitely being for Nick."

The two men were in Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago for the only Scottish hustings of the contest. Several members said afterwards they had gone along genuinely undecided but came away backing Huhne.

Huhne has been portrayed as more left-wing than Clegg and won loud applause at the Edinburgh hustings for an attack on Trident. But, afterwards, Clegg was disappointed the issue had not come up in questions because on closer examination of his position, it turns out Huhne wants to get rid of Trident but is prepared to sign up to an alternative nuclear missile system.

Clegg also dismisses the idea he is on the right and Huhne on the left as "complete nonsense".

He says: "Chris has said he thinks the party is too right-on about immigration. I strongly disagree with that. I think there is no future in another party chasing the anti-immigrant vote. How can I be more right wing if he accuses me of being too right-on about immigration?"

The last two Lib Dem leaders were Scots, but neither contender this time has any clear Scottish credentials - although Huhne did serve on the party's Steel Commission looking into the issue of more powers for Holyrood.

A senior Scottish Lib Dem source says: "They are both perceived as being middle England, middle class, modern Liberal Democrats."

This source acknowledges a difference in style between the two men, likening Huhne to Ming Campbell and Paddy Ashdown because of his "commanding personality" while Nick Clegg has the "relaxed and informal" approach of Charles Kennedy.

The source adds: "Most Scottish members are probably undecided because there is no obvious Scottish candidate.

"It will be close - but Clegg is still favourite, mainly because the majority of MPs are backing him and if their local parties reflect that, that will give him the numbers he needs."

Lib Dems seem convinced a new leader will give them a boost in the polls - although they jokingly point out having no leader at all has already seen their ratings recover from a truly appalling 11 per cent to a healthier 18 per cent.

But the party's loss of two leaders in as many years and the way their departures were handled has done nothing to enhance the Lib Dems' standing in the eyes of the voters.

And most people will never have heard of the current contenders. It is going to take them some time to establish a public profile and make their presence felt.

But if the party is too impatient, it risks falling into the same trap as the Tories and responding to downturns in their fortunes by changing leader again - and again.