Independence takes a back seat

HAROLD WILSON famously said a week is a long time in politics – so how about a year? Twelve months ago, everyone knew there was going to be a Scottish Parliament election in May, but not many thought it would lead to Scotland's first SNP government. Who knows what the next 12 months will hold?

This time last year, even many senior Nationalists did not dream they were about to see the end of Labour's half-century dominance of Scottish politics and Alex Salmond installed in Bute House.

The margin of victory was small – the SNP secured just one seat more than Labour and its lead in the constituency vote was less than one per cent.

But that does not alter the fact it was a dramatic and historic change – and ironically achieved during the 300th anniversary of the Union between Scotland and England.

Mr Salmond has played the result for all it's worth, hailing the SNP's election win along with Scottish football victories and the successful Commonwealth Games as all reflecting what he likes to call "the mood of optimism sweeping the country".

And his government has made an impressive start, with big announcements – scrapping tolls on the Forth Road Bridge, promising to abolish the graduate endowment fee, phasing out prescription charges and more.

But Mr Salmond and his colleagues know they are in power not because people voted for independence, but because they voted for a change of government.

And persuading people to back the SNP's main objective of a go-it-alone Scotland presents a major challenge.

Mr Salmond's declared intention is to show the SNP can govern well under devolution and then put the case for Scotland gaining the same powers as other nations – but if he does too good a job, he risks voters concluding that the present arrangements are quite satisfactory.

When the Nationalists took up the reins of power, many predicted they would not last long. Some crucial issue – or even not a particularly crucial one – would lead to a vote of confidence and Mr Salmond would be forced into an early election or coalition talks with the Liberal Democrats or making way for Labour and the Lib Dems to resume control.

Well, that hasn't happened and it doesn't look like it's going to. Indeed, some pundits now predict another, improved SNP victory at the next Scottish Parliament elections in 2011.

Labour is currently in no shape to take over the helm. After the election result, it was inevitable that Jack McConnell would stand down – there could be no attraction for him in serving as leader of the opposition after five and a half years as First Minister. But his successor Wendy Alexander has struggled to make an impact in admittedly difficult circumstances – Labour MSPs have found it extremely hard to accept the fact they are no longer in power.

She also suffered the embarrassment of having two spin doctors resign after just weeks in the job.

Then she was hit by the row over the illegal donation to her leadership campaign from a Jersey-based businessman.

The heat has gone out of that row for the moment, while the Electoral Commission investigates, but it has damaged a party which was already badly bruised.

The Lib Dems were less used to power, having been on the margins of Scottish politics until devolution catapulted them into coalition. But they too have found it difficult to adjust to being in opposition.

The Tories, on the other hand, are delighted with the change of power because it allows them to prove their previously unconvincing thesis that it's not necessary to be in government to influence policy at Holyrood. They find SNP ministers much more accessible than the Labour and Lib Dem ones they replaced. And while making sure they keep up public criticism of Mr Salmond and his regime, the Tories have established good relations behind the scenes.

The Greens went into the May elections confident of increasing their seven-strong contingent of MSPs, but ended up being reduced to just two.

At least they have maintained a foothold – unlike the Scottish Socialists and Solidarity, who lost all their seats.

And the tight arithmetic in the parliament means their votes can be crucial – but so far there have been few opportunities for demanding major concessions as a price for their support.

The SNP minority government has survived well so far and apart from questions over his role in the controversial Donald Trump golf course plan, Mr Salmond's performance as First Minister has been impressive. The state of the Labour Party and the Tories' eagerness to stay on good terms with the government means a united opposition front is unlikely on most issues.

But if Mr Salmond brings forward legislation for an independence referendum, he may well find it's a different story.

The irony of the SNP's position is that while people appear happy to see it running the country, there still seems no majority – among MSPs or the voters – for the policy which is its raison d'etre.