Losing the battle on opium

AFGHANISTAN'S poppy harvest is expected to break all records this year as the country spirals deeper into a vicious circle of drugs, corruption and insecurity.

A United Nations report to be published today will reveal Afghanistan is now producing nearly 95 per cent of the world's opium, up from 92 per cent in 2006.

This marks the sixth straight year of rises since the Taleban was toppled in 2001 - despite hundreds of millions of pounds being pumped into programmes to halt cultivation, processing and trafficking of the drug.

"It is a very bad situation definitely, and the government has not been able to deal with it in the right way, otherwise it should have at least been stabilised or contained," said Christina Oguz, head of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in Afghanistan. "The same goes for the international community."

Afghanistan's drug money corrupts government and helps fund the Taleban insurgency. That weakens state control over parts of the country, which, in turn, leads to more insecurity and more drug production.

The scale of the problem is huge. Opium and the heroin made from it are estimated to be worth some £1.5 billion to the Afghan economy, about a third of its gross domestic product.

The Taleban managed to drastically reduce the 2001 poppy crop as they held most of the country firmly under their control and implemented strict punishments for offenders. But now, some 70 per cent of opium production comes from provinces in the south, where the Taleban insurgency is strongest.

One of the few bright spots in the UNODC and Afghan counter-narcotics ministry report is the rise in opium-free provinces from six last year to about ten in 2007 - all in the north where security is tightest.

Both traffickers and the Taleban have a common interest in instability and lawlessness. "Traffickers are equipping and providing funds for terrorist organisations that are responsible for many attacks in Kabul, other parts of the country and other parts of the world," Zalmay Afzaly, of the counter-narcotics ministry said.

Insecurity also leads farmers to plant poppies, as fighting may prevent them from getting perishable crops to market. "The great thing about opium is that it lasts for 20 to 30 years - it's money in the bank," a senior western diplomat said. "So if you're not sure you can get your onions or carrots to market as they may go off because it's too insecure to move, then you grow opium and put it under your bed - it's a currency."

Meanwhile, the notoriously corrupt, poorly equipped and badly paid Afghan police are unlikely to be able to do much to stop drug producers and traffickers, let alone the kingpins that run the trade and have so far remained free from prosecution. The Afghan counter-narcotics ministry says it has not had enough evidence to bring corrupt officials to book.

The United States had championed aerial spraying to eradicate poppy crops, but diplomats say that idea has been quietly dropped for another year because of objections from the Afghan government, worried about adverse public reaction.

Instead, Washington unveiled a carrot-and-stick strategy earlier this month, giving greater financial incentives to Afghan provincial governors to combat drugs while stepping up co- ordination between counter-narcotics and counter-insurgency forces.

That should help governors in the north, who have successfully fought poppy cultivation but have missed out on most of the aid, which is spent in the south where drug production has spiralled.

PUSH TO PREVENT AID BECOMING SEED MONEY

THE lush strip of land along the banks of the Helmand River is one of the most fertile farming areas in Afghanistan and was once the country's bread-basket.

This year the United States will spend some £100 million in aid on Helmand. If the region was a country, say diplomats, it would be the fifth biggest recipient of American aid.

But helping farmers bring in better irrigation and agricultural methods can sometimes backfire.

"They use it (aid) for growing opium," said Chistina Oguz, of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime in Afghanistan.

It was like telling the country that growing opium would be rewarded by aid, she added.

However, a prolonged campaign of public awareness, including alternative development, crop eradication, tackling traffickers, law enforcement and judicial reform hopes to change that.

"Unless the international community and the government are very determined ... we will not see enough change for a very long time," said Ms Oguz.