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Elderly 'most at risk' of dying from swine flu in winter months

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Published Date: 12 November 2009
THE elderly are more likely to die of swine flu this winter than younger people, according to a new study.
Although infants and under-40s are most at risk of infection, mortalities are more than five times higher among over-70s.

Unlike seasonal flu – which tends to kill older, frail members of the population – the average age of those who have died fro
m the virus in the UK is 44.

But the new study of patients in Mexico between 28 April and 31 July, 2009 found of 63 deaths out of 6,945 confirmed H1N1 cases, 10.3 per cent involved those aged 70 and over, well in excess of other age groups.

However, those aged ten to 39 were most affected – accounting for 56 per cent of cases, according to the study published online by The Lancet.

The news came as officials announced another swine flu-related fatality in Scotland, bringing the death toll to 33.

Dr Victor Borja-Aburto and colleagues responsible for the Mexican study said that although swine flu was unlikely to match the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, which killed up to 50 million, the "threat continues".

He said: "All nations worldwide are closely monitoring whether the disease will continue to be less severe than it has been so far. However, the world has the biotechnological and communication methods to deal with this pandemic.

"This might not be the pandemic we expected; however, the virus is evolving and the threat continues."

The study also found the risk of infection was lowered by 35 per cent in those vaccinated for seasonal influenza.

The latest Scottish death was announced by health secretary Nicola Sturgeon.

She said that the victim was an adult from the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde area with a "significant" underlying health condition.

Ms Sturgeon also urged those on the priority list for vaccination to show patience and wait to be called for it.

However, the virus has continued to hit school rolls across the Highlands, with more than 250 pupils at three schools absent with flu-like symptoms, it was confirmed yesterday.

Last week, swine flu fears forced Kirkcudbright Academy, in Dumfries and Galloway, to send home more than 160 pupils and seven teachers.

Dr Ken Oates, interim director of public health at NHS Highland, has sent a letter to parents warning that the swine flu H1N1 virus is one of a number of viruses around at the moment in the Inverness area.

He said it was no longer routinely recommended that schools were closed in order to try to contain the virus.





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  • Last Updated: 11 November 2009 10:15 PM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Swine Flu
 
1

Scottish Canadian,

12/11/2009 00:44:50
The incidence of H1N1 illness in Canada is decreasing. With the advent of our cold winter, seasonal flu is apt to cause more illness in our seniors than swine flu. Our efforts in the Geriatric population have been focused on vaccinating the elderly against the seasonal, not the swine flu.
I don't agree that you can properly compare the populations of Mexico and Scotland, or Canada for that matter, in an extrapolation such as this.
In spite of this inflammatory article from the Lancet, I still recommend for my patients to receive the seasonal flu shot first and the H1N1 vaccination when the high-risk groups have been sufficiently inoculated.
2

Charles Linskaill,

Edinburgh 12/11/2009 01:16:14

Our most vulnerable are having the 'swine-flu jab' as fast as possible, so I would not worry too much about our Elderly, they are well being taking care of.



3

Lobeydoser,

12/11/2009 01:44:42
"Urged those on the priority list for vaccination to show patience and wait", but we have no other option.

#2 says, "most vulnerable are having the 'swine-flu jab' as fast as possible", but how long is a respectable time to wait? Yet another two weeks, another month, January 2010?
4

fife runner,

12/11/2009 06:50:32
so average age is 44. could it be because we have a population with ill health due to obesity, binging and smoking?
5

fife runner,

12/11/2009 06:51:26
so why panick into getting the jab. if many do not mind killing themslves then why should they mind the flu finishing off the job.
6

The Former Mr. Angry,

Perth 12/11/2009 12:04:03
Have no fear. If the H1N1 jab is not all it's cracked up to be with so many medical staff being unwilling to have it themselves, if the swine flu doesn't get you the injection will (possibly). Although it would appear you're more at risk from the normal flu.

Then expect a hullaballoo and having learned lessons, time to move on etc.
7

Urban Guerrilla,

Edinburgh 12/11/2009 13:06:30
What a daft survey. The over-70s are more likely to die of ANYTHING than the under-40s, because they are OLD.
8

Evidenced Based Thinking Please,

12/11/2009 13:15:47
Human DNA does not programme the majority of us to live healthily into dotage - we are required to do so in order to pay for mass unemployemnt, hidden as college and university courses paid for by parents until young humans are 25 years old. If healthy persons were allowed to go and work at 16 we could all snuff it peacfully at three score year and ten.

Epidemics are nature's way of telling us to cut-back on overpopulation and should be welcomed, particulalry by environmentalists.
9

fife runner,

12/11/2009 14:55:46
my daughter is bad athsmatic. took swine flu last week but getting over it after a few days because she does keep herself fit
10

Alternative (High-Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 12/11/2009 16:58:25
What "new study" has brought to light the shining gem of wisdom that if there is a bug going around, the elderly and infirm are the most likely to suffer from it---especially during the winter time?

Are we seriously paying so-called "health professionals" to spend thousands of pounds of OUR money putting together a document that states the bleeding obvious?

"swine flu was unlikely to match the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, which killed up to 50 million"

Wow! I would never have guessed! Medical science now is so similar to what we had in 1918, isn't it? NOT!

"This might not be the pandemic we expected"

You were expecting a pandemic????? I think you'll find that I went on the record some time ago saying that it was all a fuss about nothing. Yet again, it seems that I am right.

 

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