WITH its hilltop views over the north of Edinburgh, few residents of Duddingston expected their "respectable" neighbourhood would be touched by gun crime. But the shooting of "dedicated family man" Douglas Downing in his front garden on Wednesday has left the community shocked that its violence could visit their doorstep.
It is understood that detectives believe the 39-year-old plumber was targeted in a case of mistaken identity as they hunt the masked gunman who shot him.
Like many of his neighbours who take advantage of nearby Meadowfield Park, the father-of-two
was a keen dog walker and had just returned from exercising the family pet when he was hit.
The shooting had led to questions over whether Edinburgh is suffering from an increase in gun violence, with a number of high-profile incidents in recent years.
Police crime reports, however, suggest the volume of general firearms-related crime actually fell last year, with 196 offences compared with 226 for the year before, although the figures include large numbers of relatively less serious airgun offences.
That general drop prompted Deputy Chief Constable Tom Halpin to say that Lothian and Borders Police were winning the war on gun crime and drugs.
Indeed, officers insist that the Capital remains a safe city to live in, with a very low chance of the public being involved in such violent acts.
Traditionally, most gun violence is "criminal on criminal", with the city's drug dealers and other gangland figures targeting one another.
That is one reason why the shooting of Mr Downing has caused such concern.
By contrast, last summer five shootings were linked to a feud between rival drug gangs from the north and south-east of Edinburgh, including a gun attack on the Gauntlet pub in Broomhouse.
The police have had some notable successes in catching those responsible. Gang leader Sean McGovern was given 17 years in prison in April after blasting a shotgun at the pub, while his co-accused, Terry Scott and Darren Elliot, were each imprisoned for five years and seven months. They were caught after an undercover operation exposed the workings of the drug gang.
But officers believe that these headline-grabbing cases have created an unnecessary atmosphere of fear among members of the public and a mistaken belief that shootings are on the rise.
Detective Superintendent Allan Jones says: "In recent years, there has been a relatively small number of high-profile incidents, like the Martyn Barclay case, to which we've given every available resource. I think that has been evident from the amount of work we've carried out.
"That has also meant a great deal of media exposure. These high-profile cases have perhaps created an impression that we have a significant problem, but conversely, when you look at the figures there's actually been a downturn."
Some officers sense, though, a growing and worrying readiness among younger gang members to use guns.
More than three years ago, Chief Superintendent John Smith, the now retired head of the force's armed response unit, said guns were replacing knives as the weapon of choice among many of the city's criminal fraternity.
This view is echoed by gang members who claim they have ready access to arsenals of heavy weapons.
The biggest worry is the use of guns by young criminals, including teenagers, out to "make a name", a move that has even shocked some older criminals who were more used to settling their own disputes with fists.
Handguns such as Berettas and "Saturday night specials" (small, low-cost weapons) have been in circulation, but criminals in the Capital can get their hands on shotguns and even machine guns too.
Large numbers of shotguns are held legally in Lothian and Borders, principally by farmers, and police say their premises have been raided to supply the trade. Underworld figures claim picking one up is "easy" for as little as £300 with ammunition.
Det Supt Jones adds: "Firearms incidents are rare and the possibility of an innocent member of the public being involved is extremely rare. But, out of the blue with Mr Downing, we had a case where a totally innocent man has been caught up.
"The potential for an innocent person to be involved is remote but it does exist, but the way we deal with that is being strong in our policing."
