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Glenrothes by-election: Win is a high point of Gordon Brown's turbulent premiership

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Published Date: 07 November 2008
LABOUR'S surprise by-election victory in Glenrothes today will put a fresh spring in Gordon Brown's step after a turbulent time in power which has seen the Prime Minister both dubbed a "bottler" and feted as a "super hero".
June 2007 – Mr Brown takes over from Tony Blair as Prime Minister promising "a new Government with new priorities".

He is praised for his cal
m response to a botched terror attack on a London nightclub and the attack on Glasgow Airport.

A "Brown Bounce" sees Labour surge ahead in the polls – leading the Tories by as much as four points.

September – Northern Rock calls in emergency support from the Bank of England, triggering the first run on a British bank in more than a century.

October – The Brown "honeymoon" comes to an end. After feverish speculation about an early general election at the Labour conference, Mr Brown is accused of playing politics with the armed forces when he visits Iraq during the Conservative conference to announce plans to withdraw troops.

A strong speech from David Cameron at the Tory conference in Blackpool, along with offers of cuts in inheritance tax and stamp duty, is credited with reversing Labour's lead in the polls.

Mr Brown announces that there will be no snap general election, with critics immediately dubbing him "Bottler Brown".

November – Lord West says he has doubts about Mr Brown's plans for 42-day pre-charge detention of terror suspects, then changes his mind after a visit to Downing Street. Opposition to the move is later expressed by former Lord Chancellor Lord Falconer, former Attorney General Lord Goldsmith and Director of Public Prosecutions Sir Ken Macdonald.

Businessman David Abrahams admits making proxy donations to Labour via a third party, leading to the resignation of general secretary Peter Watt.

January 2008 – Crude oil prices hit 100 US dollars a barrel for the first time. By the anniversary of Mr Brown's arrival in power the price will have reached almost 140 dollars, sending the cost of unleaded petrol at British pumps up to around £1.20 a litre.

February – Chancellor Alistair Darling announces that Northern Rock will be temporarily nationalised.

March – Mr Brown faces fury at a private meeting win Labour backbenchers over the decision to abolish the 10p starting rate of income tax, as a revolt which could block the Budget takes off.

April – Nationwide Building Society index records the first year-on-year drop in house prices since 1996, as the credit crunch drives potential buyers out of the market.

May – Bloodbath in local elections in England and Wales for Labour, which loses nine councils and more than 2,300 councillors, as well as seeing Ken Livingstone defeated in the race for Mayor of London by Boris Johnson. Labour loses previously safe Labour seat Crewe and Nantwich.

June – Mr Brown is forced to rely on the votes of the Democratic Unionist Party to get his plans for 42-day pre-charge detention for terror suspects through the Commons, as 36 Labour MPs rebel.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King writes an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation has hit 3.3% and warning it will rise to 4% before the year is out.

Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander resigns after failing to register donations to her leadership campaign.

July – Calls for Mr Brown to step down increase amid a dismal summer for Labour and another embarrassing by-election defeat in Glasgow East.

In a newspaper article, Foreign Secretary David Miliband vents his frustration over his party's failure to fight back against the Tories, provoking rumours about a possible leadership challenge.

September – Sarah Brown's centre-stage appearance at the Labour Party conference helps to boost her husband's image and his speech is well received.

But leaked news of Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly's imminent departure overshadows the final day of the conference.

October – Mr Brown creates a sensation by appointing long-time rival Peter Mandelson as Business Secretary as he reshuffles the cabinet.

The global banking crisis marks a dramatic improvement in the Prime Minister's fortunes after months of woes.

His bail-out plan for British banks sparks an upsurge in Labour's poll ratings and is feted by world leaders, who queue up to emulate it in their own countries.

Asked by a foreign reporter if he was now happy to go by the name of "Flash Gordon," Mr Brown replied: "Just Gordon, just Gordon, I can assure you."

November 7 – Labour holds on to Glenrothes in a crucial by-election, with their candidate Lindsay Roy snatching victory from the SNP with a 6,737 majority. Mr Brown and his wife both campaigned for Mr Roy.

The win represents a major boost for Mr Brown because although the seat was held with a reduced margin, it was much larger than expected.



The full article contains 813 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Mr. Lachie Todd,

Edinburgh 07/11/2008 09:26:57
Will this result be enough to convince Brown to call an early General Election?
2

,

07/11/2008 09:35:55
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3

subrosa,

07/11/2008 09:52:57
I've just heard a Tory on Radio Scotland say that all his pals and himself voted labour because they don't believe in independence.

Shame on him really - some kind of tory he is not to even have the courage of his conviction.
4

,

07/11/2008 10:10:24
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5

The Federalist (the poster formerly know as NAUON),

07/11/2008 10:27:40
I think most of us got it wrong - even those who thought it might be close. Labour increased their share by 3% and comfortably held on despite the SNP throwing everything including the kitchen sink at Labour. For the SNP it is not a disaster but it should give them pause for thought.

The reasons why they did not make the big break-through are complex but I'll try to give my thoughts on why they lost.

The SNP still try to fight elections as the opposition and, as we saw here, that is no longer the case in Scotland. The consequence of at least one policy contributed to their downfall here. The council tax freeze may be nationally a popular move but at a local level councils are finding it hard to implement. It was easy for Labour to attack the local Lib Dem/SNP coalition for charges for local services - charges I believe are a direct result of freezing the Council Tax. If they want to avoid this issue happening again then serious consideration is going to have to be given to the block grant levels that councils receive. That in itself may have implications for funding other Scottish Government priorities. Something will have to give - and it will not be the Council Tax freeze. I would expect some other SNP policy to be delayed or even abandoned altogether to keep their flagship policy intact.

Another issue is undoubtedly was independence. I have been derided here for pointing out that Labour would try to use the global financial crisis and events in countries such as Iceland for their own political benefit. Whether events in Iceland (or Hungary, Ukraine etc) have a direct correlation to Scottish independence is irrelevant (I personally don't think they do). The perception is that they do and the SNP have only themselves to blame. Salmond set himself up for a fall with his Arc of Prosperity speech. The SNP need to start making the case for Scottish independence purely in Scottish terms not on what another country has done.

(to be continued)
6

The Federalist (the poster formerly know as NAUON),

07/11/2008 10:27:51
(continued)

That brings us to the third area - oil. The last month or so has shown that economies who rely heavily on a particular natural resource suffer due to fluctuating commodity prices. Here in Scotland some are beginning to realise the fallacy of SNP economic policy that is built on the price of oil. The SNP were fine when oil prices were at a high level but now at the low price levels we have now their argument has been undermined. The SNP need to take oil out of the argument and make the case that economic independence is possible whether or not we have oil. That means they really do need to make a reassessment of their policies for a post-independence Scotland.

The truth is that if the SNP are going to win an independence referendum they have a long way to go to convince the agnostics in the electorate. They need to make a much more subtle case that the one they have made thus far.
7

TWC,

Ayrshire 07/11/2008 10:48:48
8 The Federalist,

I think some voters were conned by no mention of real policies, SNP should have stressed that the referendum would handle Independence but the big one was the economy areal con BTW
Brown claims to be the saviour - he was part of the cause
Looks like Interest rate dropped by BOE - Actually forced by Government
Claims UK are in good position -- actually people moving out of Sterling, IMF say UK will suffer most.

I speak from experience I used to believe Labour and the biased Media now I look for myself.

Today I'm moving my Investments as fast as I can, hope I'm quick enough.

Low income families with wee families will be the ones who suffer that includes Glenrothes.

The other parties should forget about Independence and take on New Labour on it's Scottish policies of which there are none.
8

Libertarian!,

07/11/2008 10:49:30
Listening this morning to the propaganda department of the "impartial", publicly funded BBC lauding the victory of the sleazy, lying, corrupt New Labour Party
in last nights by-election, I was told that "everybody"
welcomed their victory which was due to Brown's visit to the constituency. EVERYBODY mind you!
The newsreader, obviously reading from a teleprompter, said New Labour had won this seat from Alex Salmond's
SNP; note the words; they didn't retain it; but won it.
This is the type of manipulated garbage that is dished up non-stop daily by the BBC's overpaid and carefully selected staff who enjoy an elitist life style financed by the licence tax payers, many on very low wages; many elderly people on miserable pensions; the lowest in Western Europe and many others belonging to the ever increasing poor in Brown's New Labour Party's
promised land.
9

,

07/11/2008 10:55:49
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10

TWC,

Ayrshire 07/11/2008 10:56:00
Well I guess Labour will call a General Election now they are so popular eh?
11

,

07/11/2008 10:57:09
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12

,

07/11/2008 11:01:55
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13

,

07/11/2008 11:03:59
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14

salmondella,

England 07/11/2008 11:04:33
Brown can no more solve the problems of the credit crunch than Salmond, ( even though at present Brown is making ex banker Salmond look like a bungling amateur which is one reason why the SNP lost Glenrothes) Regulation of the banks will solve nothing and the present false nationalisation only serves to prop up the banks incompetence and dodgy control. The S word (socialism)is now coming back into fashion, God knows even Labour Party members are using it!! - Brown will be tested again and again and found wanting - we need a new leader and CHANGE of the system which created the crisis in the first place and will continue to fail us in the future.
15

SouthernSkye,

07/11/2008 11:09:46
Retaining a seat with a 10,000 majority is a high-point!
16

LEAL,

07/11/2008 11:37:25
The Brown bounce got Labour back in this election,and the 1.5% interest rate cut forced by No 10 contrary to all expectations swung it for them.The facts are unchanged;Labour want new nuclear weapons in Scotland,Labour want new nuclear power plants in Scotland,Labour want to fight illegal wars,the economy is in meltdown and Labour are the cause rather than the solution.These policies will cost them at the next general election when the Brown bounce is but a memory.
17

Hadrien,

Worksop 07/11/2008 11:46:12
An unusually thoughtful commentary this morning. I'm as surprised as anyone about the result - didn't the man say 'you can fool most of the people most of the time'?

A couple of good points in comment 8 - the SNP should be fighting these by-elections as the ruling party, and oil should be taken out of the equation. The future of an independent Scotland will, in the last resort, depend upon the energy and initiative of her people, not upon a vanishing primary export whose price will be set outside of Scotland.
18

,

07/11/2008 12:14:53
Comment Removed By Administrator
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19

Matt there,

Somewhere 07/11/2008 12:41:38
So retaining a very safe seat is the high point in Brown's premiership? Oh. OK, then.
20

Brian Hill,

Edinburgh 07/11/2008 13:05:02
This result is unbelievable!! How can everyone be so wrong? How could the SNP, with all their detailed canvass results in front of them be so far off the mark as to be claiming victory then lose by 6000 votes?

Two possible legitimate explanations are these One, people lied on the doorstep to SNP canvassers...trouble with this is Fife voters have no record of this,

the 2nd is that 1 major issue, e.g. increase in care for the elderly fees or a combination of issues finally had an impact and caused 3000 potential SNP voters to switch at the last minute.

The SNP will need a post election team to examine their canvass returns and take real samples of how people ACTUALLY voted and why in order to understand how a dead cert turns into a 6000 majority defeat.

But it looks like the care for the elderly charges rather than the economic downturn was the main reason.
21

Brian Hill,

Edinburgh 07/11/2008 13:25:22
Which brings me to my next point. It is absolutely essential that the SNP sets up a Rapid Response Team to immediately refute unionist lies, distortions and half truths.

The Labour Party was able to produce a last minute paper called the Fifer with a front page picture of an elderly couple clearly unhappy about the charges.

Their message was believed because we had failed to nail it way back at the beginning of the campaign.

Lessons learned I've no doubt.

Good to see Jim Sillars back in harness last night and his comments about this being a wake up call for the SNP were both accurate and helpful.

Having said all that the SNP were defeated by negative campaigning, a biased media, distortion of local issues and FEAR spread large re the need to be part of a larger unit for protection during economic tsunamis.

Presumably we can now expect Britain to join the Euro at the first opportunity.
22

The Federalist (the poster formerly know as NAUON),

07/11/2008 13:37:33
#22 "people lied on the doorstep to SNP canvassers"

Could be a similar phenomenon as happened under the Tories - people were too embarrassed to say they voted Tory so lied. Are voters now to embarrassed to say they vote Labour?
23

TWC,

Ayrshire 07/11/2008 14:06:46
24 The Federalist

Iam ashamed to admit I used to vote for them still need to go now. I'm feeling awee bit dejected; not because SNP lost but the fact that good people stll trust New Labour.

TTFN
24

Richard Lionheart,

08/11/2008 02:29:56
#2 One can only hope so. But as he dithers about it another year or 18 months may have past!

 

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