A farewell Sinatra would be proud of

TONY Blair has Westminster on tenterhooks. After spending three weeks staring into the ocean, what verdict did he reach about his future? Will he give a date for his departure or stay on and fight? He is due to give a string of speeches in London over the next fortnight, so will this be his "my way" moment, singing himself off stage? Or will he press on, betting - as he has done so many times in the past - that Gordon Brown lacks the courage and resolve to stand in his way?

The rumour mill is spinning so fast that the Cameron Conservatives will soon want to tap it for electricity. From the beaches of Greece, South Africa and Florida, the MPs and wider political class have kept in touch through cellular technology and whipped themselves up into a frenzy.

Among Mr Blair's dwindling number of supporters, dismay has set in. "He's going to announce a date, I can feel it," groaned one senior ally. "He'll fall straight into their trap."

The concern is that the Brownites are arranging the utmost pressure for Mr Blair to withdraw, in public, his election-time promise to serve a full third term. Or rather, that promise is being conveniently forgotten and the Prime Minister is being asked when he will go - as if he has never given an answer before. Alistair Darling, the Trade Secretary, has declared the Prime Minister "deeply aware of people's interest in what he's proposing to do". This takes for granted that his "full third term" pledge was a lie, and he's being asked to tell the truth.

The indications are he is planning no such thing. Just as some D-List celebrities play up for the paparazzi, there were plenty of signs that Mr Blair was playing the photographers from the deck of his yacht. Anyone who has tried to use a laptop in the full glare of the sunshine will know how futile the exercise is. Yet the Prime Minister posed this way - computer on lap, mobile in hand - for quite a few shots which were not printed by a suspicious media. It sent a signal of a preparing for battle, not retreat.

At Chequers on Saturday, he was revising the burst of frenetic activity 10 Downing Street has choreographed for him in coming days: speeches and announcements planned, even if there is nothing to say. There will be a trip to the Middle East (no diplomatic crisis is complete without being gatecrashed by the Prime Minister) and rumination about globalisation. There will be talk about crime, health, immigration, antisocial behaviour: everything.

And yet, nothing. It is precisely when the Prime Minister says most that he does least - often a flurry of announcements is used to conceal the utter absence of an agenda. A five-year plan usually signals the lack of any real plan. The now-notorious 12-point plan Mr Blair announced after the July 7 bombings was designed specifically because there was no agenda - which is why only three of the points have been achieved.

More talk means less action: the rule which has governed the Scottish Parliament since its inception now applies to Westminster. So if the Prime Minister embarks on a speech-a-thon, as 10 Downing Street is indicating, then it is a clear sign to those who know him that he has run out of real ammunition and will be firing blanks in the run-up to the party conference.

His strategy is the precise opposite of that adopted by Gordon Brown, who has never trumpeted what he regards as his major achievements (higher redistribution of wealth, moving the UK economy closer to the higher-taxing Eurozone model). And this is why the Chancellor deserves to be watched like a hawk as he returns from his self- imposed exile in North Queensferry, where he has spent August on lengthy paternity (and plotting) leave. His movements in the next few weeks, and those of his allies, will be crucial.

After having signed up a significant number of the Blairites, Mr Brown's behaviour during the Labour Party conference will say much about his intentions.

He may produce a solid and detailed agenda, to contrast with the Prime Minister's familiar musings on antisocial behaviour and terrorism. He may produce a rival manifesto, to intensify pressure for an early handover. He may have practised a new, conversational speaking style rather than the verbal hammering his audience normally endures at party conference.

The Chancellor had best start to show some activity in the two weeks before the Trades Union Congress meets in Brighton. Now that the unions pay £3 on every £4 donated to Labour, they are in a position of unusual influence as the party comes to choose its next leader and they would be foolish not to use it. Once, Mr Brown could afford to do battle with them, thereby endearing himself to Middle England. Now, he needs their votes - and money. If he is to act, there is an incentive for him to act soon.

Yet while Mr Brown is a good strategist, he is an appalling tactician. Often his methods are too blunt, forcing him to retreat. His career has been punctuated by indecision at crucial moments, and it is equally possible that we will hear nothing more from him over the next six weeks, aside from his normal clichéd views on the threat from India, China, the beauty of tax credits and the need to save Africa.

The Prime Minister is a better tactician than a strategist. He has already ensured the Labour conference agenda will avoid all controversial topics. Instead of difficult questions about Israel, there are filibusting Blairite themes: how do we reform the United Nations Security Council; how do we best secure social justice... etc. It is possible that Mr Blair's volley of speeches allows him to keep the agenda throughout conference.

Frank Sinatra announced his retirement in 1971, but held farewell tours over the next two decades. It is two years since Mr Blair announced his departure, and he looks similarly determined to push his luck for as long as he can. Perhaps his aim is to quit on his terms, possessing the element of surprise. Either way, he has returned from Barbados with a simple resolve: to go at a time not of Mr Brown's choosing.

Speaking of exits, this is my last column for Scotland on Sunday for the time being - and my last, anywhere, as an unmarried man. I'm getting hitched in Inverness next weekend, and not working on Saturday has been written into my vows. It's been an honour to appear on these pages.

Fraser Nelson is political editor of The Spectator